According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with an overall surge in January 2026, and the price hit a recent high, intensifying the supply-demand game in the market. From January 1st to 29th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 8187.5 yuan/ton to the range of 10562.5 yuan/ton, with a significant increase of 29.01% during the period.

The market trend this month presents distinct stage characteristics, with a rebound after a surge, but overall it still maintains a high position. At the beginning of the month, relying on tight supply, external market upward movement, and downstream pre holiday stocking expectations, the market opened up a strong upward trend, and enterprises had a strong willingness to support prices, with consecutive price increases and rapid price surges; In the middle of the month, with the strong linkage of downstream synthetic rubber futures and the hot atmosphere of spot trading, prices continue to hit new highs, and spot resources are scarce, making it difficult to find low-priced sources of goods; At the end of the month, with a significant increase in prices and a sharp rise in downstream raw material costs, profits continue to be under pressure, and the enthusiasm for entering the market for procurement has significantly declined. High priced transactions have been hindered, and the market has experienced a phase of correction. However, due to the lack of obvious loose support from the supply side, the magnitude of the correction is limited, and the overall operation remains at a high level. Prices have risen sharply during the month.
On the cost side: The market trend this month presents distinct stage characteristics, with a rebound after a surge, but overall it still maintains a high position. At the beginning of the month, relying on tight supply, external market upward movement, and downstream pre holiday stocking expectations, the market opened a strong upward trend, and enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, with consecutive price increases and rapid price surges; In the middle of the month, with the strong linkage of downstream synthetic rubber futures and the hot atmosphere of spot trading, prices continue to hit new highs, and spot resources are scarce, making it difficult to find low-priced sources of goods; At the end of the month, with a significant increase in prices and a sharp rise in downstream raw material costs, profits continue to be under pressure, and the enthusiasm for entering the market for procurement has significantly declined. High priced transactions have been hindered, and the market has experienced a phase of correction. However, due to the lack of obvious loose support from the supply side, the magnitude of the correction is limited, and the overall operation remains at a high level. Prices have risen sharply during the month. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.21 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in April was $67.37 per barrel.
Supply side:
In January 2026, the domestic butadiene supply side continued to be tight, with equipment maintenance and reduced import volume becoming the core drivers. The spot circulation was limited, and enterprises had a strong mentality of raising prices, with quotes continuously increasing with market conditions. This month, multiple sets of butadiene plants in China have entered the maintenance cycle, and some enterprises have temporarily shut down their plants. The release of effective production capacity in the industry is limited, and domestic supply has contracted to some extent; At the same time, the available sources of goods in the external market are limited, and the supply in major production areas such as South Korea and Southeast Asia is tightening. The arrival volume of imported goods from overseas has significantly decreased, and the circulation resources in the domestic spot market have further reduced, highlighting the tight supply-demand balance pattern. In this context, the quotations of mainstream domestic production enterprises have continuously increased, and various sales companies of Sinopec, Satellite Chemical, Shenghong Refining and Chemical, and other enterprises have repeatedly raised their listing prices/export prices. The overall quotation system has moved up, further driving up market prices and becoming the core driving force behind this month’s price surge.

Demand side:
In January 2026, the downstream demand for butadiene in China showed a trend of first strong and then weak. The release of stocking demand before the beginning of the month formed strong support, while the demand carrying capacity significantly weakened under cost pressure at the end of the month, and the supply-demand game gradually intensified. At the beginning of this month, affected by the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the downstream synthetic rubber (butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber) industry started pre holiday stocking, coupled with the industry’s relatively high operating rate, the demand for butadiene procurement was steadily released, and the atmosphere of spot trading was hot, becoming an important driving force for price increases; But with the significant increase in butadiene prices, the cost of downstream synthetic rubber raw materials has skyrocketed, and the transmission of price increases on the product side is not smooth. The price difference between upstream and downstream continues to narrow, and the profits of Shunding and styrene butadiene rubber enterprises are under obvious pressure. Some enterprises are forced to reduce production, and their market procurement has shifted from actively stocking up to following up on essential needs. At the end of the month, the high price transaction of butadiene encountered obstacles, and the market ushered in a phase of correction. Overall, downstream pre holiday stocking has formed a temporary support, but profit pressure has become the core factor restricting the sustained release of demand, which has also led to a market rebound after a surge.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 29th, the Shunding rubber market in East China has been consolidating at a high level. The futures market fluctuated slightly, and merchants raised their offers by 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream prices for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 13100~13300 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 12950-13100 yuan/ton.
Market forecast:
The supply-demand game in the domestic butadiene market will still dominate the trend, and the price is likely to maintain a high volatility pattern. The tight supply situation is difficult to fundamentally alleviate in the short term, and equipment maintenance and import reduction will still provide support for prices. Enterprises still have a strong willingness to raise prices, and the room for adjustment is limited; The situation of downstream profit pressure on the demand side has not improved, and the terminal tire industry is still in a seasonal off-season. After the pre holiday stocking demand gradually subsides, the follow-up efforts for essential needs are limited, which will restrict further price increases and make it difficult for the market to see a unilateral upward trend.
Overall, it is expected that the domestic butadiene market will mainly fluctuate at a high level in February 2026, with prices generally running at a high level supported by tight supply before the Spring Festival. After the holiday, it is necessary to pay close attention to the progress of downstream resumption of work and production, the dynamics of equipment maintenance and restart, the trend of external prices, and the recovery of terminal demand.