1、 Price data

As of October 16, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha mainstream was 7863.33 yuan/ton, down 2.16% from 8036.67 yuan/ton on October 10. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 7800-8000 yuan/ton.

As of October 16, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 7635.00 yuan/ton, down 2.65% from 7842.50 yuan/ton on October 10. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was about 7600-7800 yuan/ton.

On October 16, the naphtha commodity index was 97.05, unchanged from yesterday, 20.22% lower than the peak of 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle, and 129.76% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell this week, and the refinery just needed to purchase. Affected by the bad news of the gasoline and diesel market, the terminal ethylene cracking demand was weak, and the market was in a wait-and-see mood. The refinery reduced the price and shipped.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fell. During the National Day, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce the total daily output of OPEC+crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the crude oil market price rose by 15%, but the negative pressure on the economic side was difficult to ease. The World Bank and IMF warned that the risk of global economic recession was growing, In addition, the IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for next year, and crude oil prices fell for three consecutive days after the holiday. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of the business community, toluene decreased slightly this week, with the price at 7790 yuan/ton on October 16 and 7790 yuan/ton on October 10, down 1.52%. The price of mixed xylene was stable this week, and it was 8400 yuan/ton on October 16. In terms of PX market, the market price of paraxylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9300 yuan/ton, 3.33% higher than the price of 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business community, the international crude oil price fell in shock this week, and the cost support of the naphtha market was limited. Affected by the bad news in the gasoline and diesel markets, the terminal ethylene cracking demand was weak, and the terminal local refining and reforming were in gap. The purchase was mainly just needed. The overall market was in a strong wait-and-see mood. The refinery shipments were weak, and the transaction was light. It is expected that the local refining of naphtha will be dominated by the weak in the near future.