According to the price monitoring of the business community, this week (11.7-11.11), the raw silk index of the China Cocoon Silk Trading Market fell, and the prices of various far and near contracts on the disk fell, with average trading volume; The price of low-grade raw silk in the cocoon silk spot market fluctuates according to the monthly spot price, while the price of high-grade raw silk decreases slightly as a whole. As of November 11, the average price of dried cocoons in the spot market was 146000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, down 1.35% year on year; The average price of raw silk on the 20/22 spot market was 43500.00 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from last week and 1.33% year on year.

This week, on the spot of cocoon silk, raw silk continued to be traded just as needed, and the price did not change much. The price of middle and low grade raw silk fluctuated according to the monthly spot price, and the price of high-grade raw silk decreased slightly as a whole. The transaction was still difficult, and the overall transaction atmosphere was weak. On the whole, the overall pressure is still high due to the sluggish downstream demand, some capital pressure in the fourth quarter and the short time between New Year’s Day and Spring Festival. At the same time, supported by the cocoon, the factory still has strong willingness and motivation to support the price.

In terms of cocoon acquisition, the sixth batch (the fifth successive batch) of autumn cocoons in Yizhou, Guangxi continued to be listed in a small amount. In the middle of November, this batch is less. The purchase price is usually around 56 yuan per kilogram. A small number of autumn cocoons have been listed in some regions of Guangdong and Guangxi, and some have ended listing. A small number of late autumn cocoons are also on the market in some regions this month.

On the downstream side, the Double 11 orders have entered the closing stage one after another, and the demand has weakened seasonally. Recently, the orders in the entire textile market are relatively bleak, the price of raw materials is unstable, and customers are more cautious in placing orders. At present, the weaving mills are mostly signing for early orders and fixed customers, and the new orders in the future market are slightly weak. Recently, the epidemic situation in Guangzhou is relatively serious, and the medium and large markets may not be unsealed in the short term. Some of the distributors issued notices to go home early for the New Year, which has impacted domestic demand ▪ It’s a big hit. Panyu has recently closed the village for three days. At the same time, due to the bearish outlook on the trend of raw materials in the later period, the operating rate of downstream weaving also showed a downward trend, from the high point of 74% in the earlier period to 66%, a decline of 8 percentage points. Some knitting plants in Jiaxing were at a semi standstill, and the operating rate of Zhangcha was seriously insufficient, about 20%. Judging from the current decline in weaving orders, the downstream weaving is a risk aversion, and the start-up will continue to decline after fear.

Analysts from the business community believe that under the background of weak demand side, the inventory of downstream manufacturers remains relatively high, which cannot be alleviated in the short term. The demand for front-end raw silk materials will not be released immediately, and the upward pressure on market prices is large. However, the upstream cocoon cost and labor cost support still have many uncertain factors in the future market, and the downward pressure is also large. It is expected that the probability of short-term price maintenance is relatively high.

The domestic butadiene market continued to decline, the contradiction between supply and demand remained, and the external market continued to be weak. Some enterprises have reduced the load of equipment, which has boosted the market atmosphere, but has little effect.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from November 4 to 11, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 7146 yuan/ton to 6603 yuan/ton, with a decline of 7.60%, 16.83% month on month and 8.96% year on year. In terms of price, the delivery price in Shandong Luzhong is 7000-7100 yuan/ton, and the self lifting price in East China is 6500-6600 yuan/ton.

In terms of enterprises, the listing price of butadiene of Sinopec sales companies has been lowered by 500 yuan/ton twice, and 6700 yuan/ton has been implemented. The 30000 t/a butadiene unit of Liaoyang Petrochemical Plant was in stable operation, 230 t of goods were sold abroad through competitive bidding, and the transaction price was 6480 yuan/t. The 160,000 t/a butadiene extraction unit of Fushun Petrochemical was operating stably, and 300 tons of goods were sold abroad at a competitive price of 6100 yuan/ton; The transaction price is 6340 yuan/ton.

In terms of external market: the closing price on November 10, the external price of butadiene in Asia rose: South Korea FOB reported 745-755 dollars/ton, up 30 dollars/ton; China CFR reported 735-745 dollars/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 985-995 US dollars/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1025-1035 euros/ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, FOB Korea, 745-755 US dollars/ton, 30 yuan/ton

Asia, CFR China, 735-745 USD/ton, 0 USD/ton

Europe and America, FOB Rotterdam, 985-995 USD/ton, 0 USD/ton

Europe.,. FD Northwest Europe., 1025-1035 euros/ton., 0 euros/ton

The business society monitored that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China rose by a narrow margin. The price at the beginning of the week was 11,330 yuan/ton, and the price at the weekend was 11,398 yuan/ton, up 0.61%.

The business community monitored that the price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber rebounded from the bottom, with the price at the beginning of the week at 10641 yuan/ton and at the weekend at 10853 yuan/ton, up 2.00%.

The business community monitored that the price of nitrile rubber in China fell by a narrow margin, with 15425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15253 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 1.11%.

The short-term contradiction between supply and demand still restricts the butadiene market. Butadiene analysts from the business community predicted that the short-term domestic butadiene market was mainly weak.

From November 4, 2022 to November 11, 2022, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi was lowered. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average market price was 6712.5 yuan/ton last weekend, and the average market price was 6452.5 yuan/ton this weekend, down 3.87%.

On November 11, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 222.50, unchanged from yesterday, 3.88% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 231.47 (2022-11-09), and 371.90% higher than the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The bidding price in Shanxi fell sharply this week, the downstream deep processing industry has strong resistance to high priced raw materials, and the price of deep processing related goods fell this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the coal tar market rose for 12 consecutive weeks. Only after a small price correction in one week, the price continued to rise, and fell sharply in November.

In terms of the industrial chain, the downstream deep processing industry rose and fell by half this week, the profit of the deep processing industry was further tightened, and the deep processing industry’s resistance to the high price of coal tar was strengthened again. The high price of coal tar pitch, which rose sharply last week, fell back, while other commodities showed tepid performance, and coal tar gradually lacked downstream support.

This week, the mainstream of the coal tar market is mainly downward, especially in Shanxi, where the previous increase was relatively high. The auction price this week dropped sharply. As of November 11, the mainstream price in Shanxi was 6350-6450 yuan/ton, down about 350 yuan/ton. The price in other regions did not change much this week. The mainstream price in Shandong was stable at 6400-6450 yuan/ton, while that in Hebei was 6400 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from last week. On the supply side, coking enterprises still normally limited production this week, with little change in tar output. In the downstream, the overall cash flow of the deep processing industry is not good this week, and the resistance to high priced raw materials is growing. However, as the heating season enters, the operating rate of coking enterprises is still expected to decline to some extent, and the tar will soon enter a period of seasonal tight supply. Therefore, the tar price will remain at a high consolidation trend in the future market, with the price mainly fluctuating in a narrow range.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 14, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products this week was 16050.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the same period last week. The overall market price of PMMA was narrow and weak. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is 16100 yuan/the overall market supply and demand balance.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent superior products was 16050.00 yuan/ton. The overall market was stable, with a narrow downward range. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 16100 yuan/ton. The price of PMMA was stable. At present, the overall market is in balance of supply and demand. Downstream just needs to purchase. The supply side is normal.

Rubber and plastic index: On November 13, the rubber and plastic index was 670 points, unchanged from yesterday, 36.79% lower than the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and 26.89% higher than the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the analysts of PMMA from China Business Association, PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell slightly this week, from 408.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 366.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 10.29%. A year-on-year decrease of 51.74%. On November 10, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 62.88, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 99.49% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream market rose slightly, while the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers fell slightly this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market rose slightly, and the sulfur price rose from 1250.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 1363.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 9.07%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 35.18% year on year. The upstream market rose slightly and cost support was strengthened. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, with the market price rising 0.26% from 11128.57 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 11157.14 yuan/ton at the end of this week. A year-on-year drop of 20.36%. The market price of titanium dioxide in the downstream market was adjusted at a low level, and the market price was 15933.33 yuan/ton. A year-on-year decrease of 23.95%. Downstream market fluctuates with each other, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the middle and late November, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support has increased. Downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, while titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate market declined slightly. Downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business community believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market price will rise mainly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 1132 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 1098 yuan/ton. The price fell 3%, 18.52% lower than the same period last year. On November 3, the caustic soda commodity index was 158.85, down 1.73 points from yesterday, down 40.16% from the peak of 265.47 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 143.97% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business cooperative, the domestic caustic soda price fell this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1050-1100 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1060-1300 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda on the market fell, and the supply remained at the early stage. Most of the main caustic soda enterprises have relatively stable production and sufficient supply of goods on the market, but the downstream market is mainly wait-and-see, and they are cautious in purchasing, so the actual delivery is average.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 43rd week of 2022 (10.24-10.28), there was a total of 1 rising commodity, 3 falling commodity, and 1 zero rising commodity. The main commodities that rose were hydrochloric acid (3.71%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (-11.21%), PVC (-2.54%) and calcium carbide (-0.42%). The average rise or fall this week was -2.09%.

Analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, the caustic soda price is weak, and the downstream aluminum oxide procurement demand is average, and more buying will go up rather than down. It is mainly wait-and-see operation and cautious procurement. It is comprehensively expected that the caustic soda will be weak next week, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, aniline was stable and slightly moved this week. On October 28, the price of aniline was 14700 yuan/ton; On November 4, the price of aniline was 14625 yuan/ton, 0.51% lower than that of last week and 3.24% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

On the cost side, pure benzene: At the beginning of the week, the pure benzene inventory of East China ports rose to 73200 tons, and the import of pure benzene from ports is expected to increase in the future. Downstream market decline is the main trend, with strong resistance to high price pure benzene. In addition, the industry is short of the future pure benzene market, with general interest in market procurement, weak demand in the north, and strong factory willingness to ship. The supply side increased while the demand side declined, and the price fell continuously during the week. On Friday (November 4), the price of pure benzene was 6900-7050 yuan/ton (the average price was 6967 yuan/ton), 6.76% lower than that of last week and 8.57% lower than that of the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic nitric acid price stabilized this week. The price was 2367 yuan/ton on October 28 and 2367 yuan/ton on November 4. The price was flat last week, down 27.99% from the same period last year.

At present, the aniline market continues to be in a tight supply situation, but the devices for early shutdown and maintenance are planned to restart, and the supply is expected to increase. During the week, pure benzene fell continuously, and the cost support weakened; The demand for downstream auxiliary agents is weak, and the follow-up of high priced aniline is cautious. It is mainly just in need of purchase. The fundamentals of aniline are weak, and the prices are sideways arranged within the week.

3、 Future market expectation

The aniline plants overhauled in North China have been restarted successively, and the shortage of supply has eased to a certain extent. The cost of aniline is weak, and the demand needs to be followed up. To sum up, aniline continued to operate at a high level in the short term. The industry weighed supply and downstream gas buying, and the price may fall back. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the dynamics of aniline device and the downstream picking mood.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 7, the average price of domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black was 5650.00 yuan/ton. The overall market was stable and strong, and white carbon black was mainly stable. At present, the operating rate is stable, the procurement atmosphere is general, and the overall trend is strong. At present, the market supply is normal, and the shipment is slow.

The white carbon black market is mainly stable, and the price is relatively strong compared with the same period last week, with an increase of 0.89%. The manufacturer mainly supplies contract customers. At present, the operating rate is stable, the overall market negotiation atmosphere is flat, the shipment is slow, and the overall market is mainly stable.

Chemical index: On November 6, the chemical index stood at 950 points, unchanged from yesterday, 32.14% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and 58.86% higher than the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the white carbon black analyst of the business community, the mainstream price of rubber grade white carbon black is expected to be around 6000 yuan/ton in the short term.

This week (10.31-11.4), the domestic liquid ammonia stopped falling at the beginning of the week, and the price rebounded from the middle of the week to the weekend. As of November 4, compared with last weekend, the liquid ammonia has risen by 100-150 yuan/ton accumulatively. Mainly due to the reduction of ammonia emission by manufacturers in the north, the maintenance of some enterprises’ devices, and the decline of supply, prices in Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi and other places hit the bottom and recovered, and the market growth slowed on Friday. According to the monitoring of the business community, the increase of liquid ammonia this week was 1.30%.

Main domestic markets:

This week, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong continued to rise, and dealers generally reported higher, with an increase of more than 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, the supply pressure in this region is not large, the inventory pressure of large factories is relieved, the self consumption is increased, and the export volume is reduced. Since this week, the large factories in Shandong have generally raised the price twice, with a range of more than 100 yuan. Downstream demand just needs to be supported. After the urea market rebounded at the end of last month, it was roughly stable this week. Near the weekend, the mainstream price in this region is 3900-4100 yuan/ton

The liquid ammonia market in Hebei Province rose this week. As of Friday, it had rebounded continuously this week. Most dealers reported high prices, mostly in the range of 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, the market has improved slightly, and downstream inquiries have increased. The quotations of major manufacturers have been raised repeatedly this week. The cumulative growth of major manufacturers in Hebei Province this week is 100-150 yuan. The pressure on dealers’ inventory has eased, and the buying interest is gradually rising. At present, the pressure on ammonia volume in the region has eased slightly. As of Friday, the mainstream price in the region was 3800-4000 yuan/ton.

Future market forecast:

According to the analysts of the business community, the supply and demand of the domestic liquid ammonia market are basically balanced, and some markets are slightly differentiated, and the future market may show different ups and downs. After the rebound of the market this week, the future market may not push up much. Without any improvement in demand, liquid ammonia will still maintain a narrow range of shocks.

According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, the spot price of styrene in Shandong fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 9300.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8341.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 10.30%. The price fell 12.38% year on year.

styrene

The styrene market price fell in October. It can be seen from the figure above that the price of styrene has continued to decline in the past month. The main reason for the decline was that the focus of the pure benzene market continued to move down, and the cost support was poor. At present, the domestic styrene inventory was on the high side, and there were many sources of goods arriving at the port. The inventory of styrene in East China port was 66500 tons, increasing month on month; The inventory of ports in South China was 16400 tons, up month on month. Domestic styrene plants have stable output, and there is no parking plan for the time being. It is expected that the styrene inventory will further accumulate. It is expected that the spot price of styrene will decline mainly due to shocks in the later period.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene fell sharply this month. The price at the beginning of the month is 7850-8100 yuan/ton (the average price is 7901 yuan/ton); At the end of the month, the price was 7400-7500 yuan/ton (the average price was 7455 yuan/ton), down 5.93% this month. Due to the fact that the downstream demand is multi-dimensional and needs to be followed up, the enterprises in Shandong are under pressure to ship goods and have a strong desire to arrange stocks. The focus of negotiation is weak, and the price of pure benzene continues to decline.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream styrene markets rose and fell in October. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10300 yuan/ton, and at the end of this month, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 10166 yuan/ton, down 1.29% and 12.36% compared with the same period of the year. In October, the PS market offered a small drop, and the merchants were under pressure to deliver goods. The operation of giving way to profits was maintained, and the market was still weak.

The EPS market fell in October. The average price of EPS common materials at the beginning of the month was 11300 yuan/ton, and the average price of EPS common materials at the end of the month was 11030 yuan/ton, down 2.38%. Cost support is poor, and the focus of market negotiation is low. EPS factory finished product inventory piled up, the shipment situation was poor, and the market fell.

The domestic ABS market fell in October. As of the end of the month, the average price of the mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 12,071 yuan/ton, up or down by – 6.06% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month. At present, the ABS industry has a high load, which is maintained at 80% to 90%. There is a continuous abundant supply of goods on the site, and there is a certain pressure on the supply side. In terms of demand, the seasonal demand effect is acceptable, but it is difficult to support the market.

Recently, the pure benzene market has declined, the cost support is insufficient, and the downstream demand is stable. Maoming Petrochemical and other styrene plants have plans to restart. The business community expects that the styrene market will fall mainly in the short term.