Drop first and then rise in the week
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According to the data from the business community, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on October 21 was 18676.67 yuan/ton, up 1.39% on a daily basis, falling first and then rising in the week, down 0.27%.
In the long term, the current price is 1.74% higher than the market average price of 18356.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (10.1), 17450 yuan/ton higher than the recent starting point (July 14, 2022), and 7.03% higher than the recent recovery. On the whole, it is now in the stage of platform shock after warming up.
Influential factors of market in the week
On the 18th, LME aluminum inventory increased by 48350 tons, a 46% increase since this month. Inventory pressure suppresses the aluminum price. According to the news, Glencore, a global bulk commodity trader, has delivered a large amount of aluminum originating in Russia to the registered warehouse of London Metal Exchange (LME) in Guangyang, South Korea. Another person familiar with the matter also disclosed that the aluminum delivered to Guangyang warehouse was produced by Rusal Aluminum Corporation (RUSAL for short). RUSAL is the largest aluminum producer outside China, accounting for 6% of the global aluminum supply of about 70 million tons.
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However, according to the domestic data, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main market fell month on month. On the 20th, the mainstream social inventory was about 629000 tons, which was more than 30000 tons off the stock compared with 660000 tons on the 17th.
The recent rebound in aluminum prices is still at the stage of news disturbance. Only when there are a large number of supply and demand gaps in the global aluminum market can a sustained rebound trend be formed. At present, supply and demand are relatively stable, and it is expected that the trend will remain volatile in the short term.
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