Price Trend

According to business association monitoring data, as of July 3, the latest domestic price of cyclohexanone was 7866 yuan/ton, and the domestic market of cyclohexanone was weaker.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market continues to rise slightly, cost support is still acceptable, downstream connection atmosphere is still acceptable, factory spot pressure is not large, solvent market needs to be purchased more. The mainstream offer of cyclohexanone in North China market is delivered in cash from 8300 to 8400, the mainstream offer in East China market is delivered in cash from 8500 to 8600, and the mainstream offer in South China market is delivered in cash from 8800 to 9000.

Industry Chain: Pure Benzene: The price of pure benzene in East China is slightly weaker than that in noon. At present, spot negotiations are between 5230-5270 yuan/ton, between 5250-5280 yuan/ton in July and 5220-5250 yuan/ton in August. Recently, after Sinopec’s supplementary increase, US dollar disc talks are also active. The rise of downstream styrene price has some support for pure benzene, but Sinopec’s supplementary increase is lower than expected, the market continues to rise with some resistance, and the price slightly falls. Caprolactam: Domestic liquid caprolactam spot market is slowly rising, spot supply is tight, plus good news outside, manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The spot quotation for liquids in East China market refers to 12200-12300 yuan/ton and is accepted and delivered. Shanxi Lubao device has been restarted, Cangzhou Xuyang device has been restarted, Shandong Haili device parking overhaul, giant device parking overhaul.

3. Future Market Forecast

Cyclohexanone analysts, business associations, predict that the domestic market for cyclohexanone will be stable in the short term.

Price Trend

In June 2019, the domestic market of 1# lead ingots shocked down. The average price of domestic market was 16,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 16,062.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 0.85%.

On June 28, the lead commodity index was 97.76, down 0.45 points from yesterday, down 27.05% from 134.01 points in the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 30.99% from 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: In June, the overall trend of spot lead market in East China was mainly turbulent. The mainstream price was about 16,000-16,200 yuan/ton. The increase was weak. The downstream demand was difficult to increase. Battery enterprises were still mainly on the lookout, and bulk orders were still very limited. By the end of the month, the main brands of lead in the market were concentrated in Jinsha, South, Copper Crown, Shuangyan and so on. Affected by environmental protection, some large factories have been repaired. Lead-acid battery enterprises have partially reduced production and storage, and lead prices have been low.

Supply and demand: London, June 20, the report released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group showed that the global lead market was short of 25,800 tons in April and surplus of 4,300 tons in March. In the first four months of this year, the global lead market was short of 39,000 tons, compared with 38,000 tons in the same period last year.

London, June 19, 2010. According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global lead market supply gap was 152,000 tons in January-April 2019 and 278,000 tons in 2018. The total stock at the end of April was 19,000 tons lower than that at the end of 2018. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to April 2019, global refined lead production was 4.168 million tons, an increase of 9.3% over the same period last year. From January to April, China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 1.991 million tons, an increase of 381,000 tons over the same period last year, accounting for about 46% of the global total. Apparent demand in the United States increased by 24,000 tons from January to April. In April 2019, global refined lead production was 1.016 million tons and consumption was 1.1272 million tons.

Domestic events:

The pilot implementation scheme of centralized collection and trans-regional transfer system for waste lead-acid batteries in Jiangxi Province: In order to promote the implementation of extended producer responsibility system for lead-acid batteries production enterprises, a standardized and orderly collection and treatment system for waste lead-acid batteries was established. According to the Circular on the Issuance of Action Plan for Pollution Prevention and Control of Waste Lead-acid Batteries (SOLID) In the spirit of documents such as “Notice on Issuing the Work Programme for the Pilot Project of Centralized Collection and Cross-regional Transport System for Lead Battery Manufacturing Enterprises” (Environmental Protection Office Solid [2019] 5), the Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment and the Provincial Department of Transport and Transport compiled the “Pilot Implementation of Centralized Collection and Cross-regional Transport System for Waste Lead Batteries in Jiangxi Province”. Program (hereinafter referred to as “Program”), is now issued to you. Please do a good job of pilot work according to the requirements of the Program

Strengthening pollution control of waste lead-acid batteries in Yunnan Province: Nine departments of Yunnan Province, including the Department of Ecological Environment, the Provincial Development and Reform Commission and the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, jointly issued the Circular on Forwarding the Action Plan for Pollution Prevention and Control of Waste Lead-acid Batteries (hereinafter referred to as “the Circular”), requesting all prefectures (cities) of Yunnan Province to strengthen waste lead-acid batteries. Pollution prevention and control, implement the extended producer responsibility system, improve the standard collection and treatment rate of waste lead-acid batteries, effectively curb the environmental pollution caused by illegal collection and treatment, and prevent and control environmental risks.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Since June, downstream lead-acid batteries enterprises have partially reduced production and storage. It is still possible to continue to reduce production in July, which is bad for the spot lead market. It is expected that lead prices will remain weak in July.

Commodity index: The commodity index of polyaluminium chloride on June 29 was 105.04, which was the same as yesterday. It was 2.84% lower than the peak of 108.11 points in the cycle (2019-04-24), and 4.10% higher than the low of 100.90 points on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Latest price (June 29): Polyaluminium chloride (solid, content (> 28%) quoted 1933.33 yuan/ton.

Main points of analysis: On June 1, the mainstream quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 1950 yuan/ton. On June 29, the mainstream quotation of this product was stable, and the mainstream quotation was reported to 1950 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the current domestic market quotation range of polyaluminium chloride is: polyaluminium chloride solid (industrial grade, content (> 28%) quoted 1800-1900 yuan/ton, liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%) quoted 330-410 yuan/ton, and the price is stable.

Industry chain: Prices of upstream hydrochloric acid and other products of polyaluminium chloride have not changed much in recent years; downstream demand is basically stable, and the overall price of polyaluminium chloride has fluctuated slightly in recent years.

Future market forecast: In the short term, there is no big fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the demand in the downstream is relatively stable, and the price of domestic polyaluminium chloride market remains basically stable.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic toluene market was rocking at a high level this week, with prices rising from last week. Enterprise prices were stable at the beginning of the week, and began to oscillate with the high oil prices in the middle of the week, with the amplitude not exceeding 0.54%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: The market price of xylene was stable at the beginning of this week, and began to oscillate with the high oil price in the middle of this week. At present, the main market turnover is around 5480-5550 yuan/ton. Port stocks have been depleted. Port stocks in East China are about 61,000 tons. Some downstream units were put into operation in July, and the demand side in June is still the reason that restricts the rise of toluene price.

2. Industrial chain:

On the upstream side, in terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell first and then rose this week, with a slight overall rise. Geographical tensions between the United States and Iraq, increased supply contraction expectations and the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations are the main positive factors. Brent crude oil ranges from $60.01 to $64.38 per ton, with weekly low prices on June 18 and weekly high prices on the weekend, with a weekly amplitude of about 3.82%.

On the downstream side, PXN fell to 317.045 US dollars/ton due to the sharp rise in oil prices and naphtha. The PX market is currently tight in July and August, and PTA and polyester are showing a rising trend, which supports PX and makes PX stronger. On the OX market, the decline in the execution price of Sinopec Neighbouring Benzenes in June released the downward pressure on neighbouring Benzenes, but overall neighbouring Benzenes weakened. Benzene market is weak and stable. There was no significant improvement in overall demand.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Xylene Branch of Business Society and Chemical Industry believe that in general, the toluene market is expected to be strong volatility in the next two weeks. Next week, oil prices are expected to remain stable at high levels, with weak momentum to continue to move upwards, and US crude oil is expected to stabilize at $55 a barrel. PX downstream market has been supported, prices are still rising trend; OX downward pressure is still there, the expected future market phenyl vulnerability and stability. Demand side is still the reason that restricts the price rise of xylene.

According to statistics, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices rose this week, up to 1,1960 yuan/ton by the end of the week, 0.67% higher than the price of 1,880 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16.12% higher than the same period last year.

Products: This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid has risen slightly. Enterprises reflect the current shortage of spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Recently, the situation of on-site purchasing has improved. Some enterprises have a low start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plants and a small rise in ex-factory prices. Recently, the start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plants is general, and the supply in the field is tight. The mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is 11500-12000 yuan/ton, while in the north. The price of hydrofluoric acid in Fangfang market ranges from 11500 to 12500 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has risen slightly, but in the near future, the downstream refrigerant industry has maintained a low start-up rate, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is tight, and the market price has risen slightly. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian was about 11500-12000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 12000 yuan/ton, that of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 12000 yuan/ton, that of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was 11500-12000 yuan/ton, and that of hydrofluoric acid increased slightly.

Industry chain: This week, the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid is rising. By the end of the weekend, the price of fluorite is 3075 yuan/ton. This week, the price of fluorite is rising by 0.41%. Recent fluorite plant construction has not changed much. Overall, the supply of fluorite is tight, the price of fluorite is rising slightly. The high price of raw materials in the upstream has a positive impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. The price of hydrofluoric acid market is slightly higher Rise. Recent downstream refrigerant product installations started at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, the price of hydrofluoric acid products rose slightly. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,500 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the shipping market trend is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much, and the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid does not change much. Aluminum fluoride prices of downstream products have increased slightly recently, with a weekend value of 9666.67 yuan per ton. The price trend has increased slightly. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has increased slightly.

Industry: This week, the upstream raw material fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market spot supply is tight, coupled with the upstream refrigerant industry trading market has improved, hydrofluoric acid market prices rose slightly.

Recent domestic refrigerant plant start-up rate is normal, for hydrofluoric acid market demand is general, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight, coupled with the rising trend of raw material market prices, business community hydrofluoric acid analyst Chen Ling believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will maintain a small rise next week, hydrofluoric acid price will be around 12,000 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to a large number of data monitoring by business associations, since the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic acetic acid market has continued to rise. At the beginning of June, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 2576 yuan/ton. By June 16, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China had risen to about 2883 yuan/ton, and the price of acetic acid had risen by 11.9%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2550-2600/ton, Shandong is about 2700-2800 yuan/ton, Hebei is about 2600-2650 yuan/ton, Shaanxi is about 2280 yuan/ton, Jiangsu is about 2650-2800 yuan/ton, Zhejiang is about 2850-3000 yuan/ton, and South China is about 2850-2950 yuan/ton, which is 47.65% lower than the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: In early June, affected by the overhaul of some acetic acid enterprises in eastern China, the overall market start-up rate was low, the spot supply continued to be tight, and the acetic acid enterprises increased their quotations substantially; how long single-shipment and low inventory of enterprises in North China, stable supply of enterprises, stable and strong acetic acid prices; and in Northwest China, affected by continuous vacation and other factors, enterprises’inventory declined significantly and prices rose sharply. Affected by the overall market atmosphere, the price of acetic acid has been rising continuously in central China. In terms of construction, the starting rate of acetic acid industry is on the low side, about 68% as a whole. Huayi Group’s overhaul has been restored in Shanghai and started slightly lower; Soap’s overhaul in Jiangsu at the end of May has been restarted but not restored to normal; Hengli 350,000 tons/year plant in Dalian is currently in operation, with a daily output of about 600 tons; Nanlongyu plans to be repaired by the end of June.

Industry chain: upstream, domestic methanol market shocks and declines, the average price of domestic methanol market at the beginning of the month is 2334 yuan/ton, reported 2186 yuan/ton as of June 17, a decline of 6.34%, the price fell 22.93% compared with the same period last year; terminal demand of acetate and vinyl acetate industries is low, procurement is not good, overall negotiations are limited, short-term stability is the main factor; PTA spot market delivery is soft, recently subject to raw materials. Material level and some equipment overhaul effect, a slight increase, but the industry is still weak.

International: The supply of acetic acid in North America is tight, and the price of acetic acid has increased slightly, currently about 415 US dollars per ton; the price of acetic acid in Asia has risen sharply due to supply constraints, but the overall downstream demand is still soft, with the current quotation of US$360-410 US dollars per ton; the European acetic acid market is running steadily, with the current quotation of US$520 per ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the gap between the supply end of domestic acetic acid market has gradually been filled, and the production of acetic acid enterprises in eastern China is about to return to normal. Although the overall low stock level in the industry has some favorable support for the price of acetic acid, there is no obvious improvement in the downstream market demand and there is resistance to the high price of acetic acid. The acetic acid data analysts of business associations believe that the domestic acetic acid market will be stable in the near future. Medium to soft.

Price Trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone continued to decline this week. According to the data of business association monitoring, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone was 8033 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 7800 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price dropped by 2.90% in the week, 35% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Cyclohexanone market continued to decline this week, the market turnover is average. The pure benzene market has risen slightly, and the cost support is still acceptable. The spot supply of cyclohexanone manufacturer is relatively stable, and the manufacturer’s delivery pressure is on the high side. The downstream chemical fibre market is weaker, the caprolactam manufacturers with cyclohexanone gap are overhauled or reduced, the purchasing volume is less, the confidence in the future market is insufficient, the solvent market just needs to be replenished, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. Shipment of cyclohexanone manufacturers is blocked. At present, the ex-factory price of cyclohexanone is more than 7600 yuan/ton cash withdrawal, and the transaction is normal.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, this week East China pure benzene market continued to rise slightly. Driven by the reduction of import shipment date in June, the decrease of port stock and the rebound of styrene price, East China traders have been actively speculating, and the market focus has continued to rise. Sinopec’s increase of 50 yuan/ton to 4550 yuan/ton in the listing of pure benzene has also played a certain role. In addition, the reduction of low-priced goods in the north and the increase of hydrobenzene prices during the week also improved the willingness and enthusiasm of downstream buying. Caprolactam: This week, the domestic caprolactam liquid market fell slightly stable. At the beginning of the week, Sinopec’s listed price dropped again from 300 yuan to 12,200 yuan/ton, and spot price fell slightly. The price of caprolactam has fallen to the vicinity of break-even line. With the stopping and maintenance of petrochemical plants and the decrease of load in Luxi, the spot supply of caprolactam in the North continues to decrease, the supply and demand of caprolactam are relatively balanced, and the market decline is delayed.

3. Future Market Forecast

There is no plan for short-term cyclohexanone spot delivery, but manufacturers have spot pressure. Weiming Petrochemical plans to put into operation 150,000 tons of phenol-based cyclohexanone unit in July and Huafeng plans to put into operation 200,000 tons of cyclohexanone unit in July. It is expected that the spot pressure will continue to increase next week. From the cost point of view, the pure benzene market is slightly upward adjustment, and the cost support is relatively stable. On the demand side, the start-up load of caprolactam market is obviously reduced, the demand for cyclohexanone is less, and the support of chemical fiber market is weak. Generally speaking, the supply of cyclohexanone may exceed the demand. Cyclohexanone analysts, a business association, predict that the market for cyclohexanone will be weak next week and that there may be little room for decline.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of potassium carbonate has been running weakly this week. The overall price has not changed much, falling by about 50 yuan/ton, or 0.74%. As of June 14, the average tax-bearing price of domestic light potassium carbonate mainstream outlets was 6,700 yuan/ton, and the market has declined.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the market of potassium carbonate is not warm, the trading atmosphere is cold, while downstream purchasing is just in demand, resulting in the weak price of potassium nitrate. The plant start-up rate of the manufacturer is at a low level, the purchasing market momentum of the low inventory level is general, and the weak quotation operation is dominant. According to the statistics of business associations: on June 14, the main domestic light potassium carbonate ex-factory quotation range is about 6500-6700 yuan/ton (quotation for reference only). According to different purchasing conditions, the quotation is different.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium carbonate analysts believe that in the short term, the price of potassium carbonate is dominated by weak consolidation, while in the long run, the market still needs to wait and see, mainly affected by demand-side dominance.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the market trend of powdered ammonium remained stable this week. The average price in domestic market was 2183 yuan/ton, the average price at the beginning of the week was 2183 yuan/ton, and the weekend price was 2183 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, the domestic ammonium market is running steadily, and the market demand is relatively flat. At present, 60% of the mainstream ammonium powder factory quoted 2200-2400 yuan/ton in Hubei area, maintaining stable operation as a whole; Henan market maintained stable operation, 55% of ammonium powder factory quoted 2000 yuan-2100 yuan/ton, stable start-up; Anhui market maintained stable operation, 55% of ammonium powder factory quoted 2000 yuan-2200 yuan/ton, stable start-up. Most enterprises have normal operation of equipment, normal orders and normal delivery.

Industry chain: The price of upstream raw material phosphoric acid market declined slightly, and the volume of new single transaction was general. The price of sulphur rose slightly. The demand for ammonium in downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the enterprise inventory is gradually declining, but the transaction is flat, and the market of monoammonium phosphate may remain stable in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data of the business associations’list, adipic acid in China continued its disadvantaged market in the last two months in May, mainly declining, mainly slowing down. Market prices fell slightly, and dealer quotations went down successively. By the end of the month, the quotations were generally between 8000 and 8300 yuan/ton. Overall, this month’s decline was 0.49%.

II. Analytical Review

This month, the market continued to fall, the decline slowed down, but for the time being there is no sign of stabilization. The market atmosphere is still cold, dealers are in a low mood to enter the market, adipic acid prices are 50-100 yuan/ton lower than in April, the market is gradually stalled. At present, the downstream market acceptance of high prices is general, so that the profit margin has increased. Social inventory still shows some pressure, shipment strength has slightly declined compared with last month, there is some room for negotiation.

On the supply side, the relative excess supply is the main factor, the start-up rate of the plant is relatively high. This month, the distributors are mainly shipped one after another. On the other hand, the enthusiasm of getting the goods is not high. On the other hand, before that, many distributors accumulated a large amount of inventory. At present, the market is turning sharply downward, and the mood of reducing prices to inventory spreads, which leads to the continuous decline of prices, market price quotations and actual offer. Price difference between deposit and deposit, the quotations of distributors in North China, East China and South China have been reduced to varying degrees. In some areas, the quotations have declined by 400 yuan/ton, while in most areas, the price of distributors has remained weak.

In terms of demand, the current market supply exceeds demand, the downstream demand lacks substantial improvement, the downstream start-up rate is still slightly insufficient, the start-up rate is basically less than 50%, the upstream adipic acid has not formed a strong boost, the market is still in the inventory cycle, in addition, the cost side also makes adipic acid show some pressure, upstream pure benzene prices also fell sharply, falling more than 5% in April, subject to cost side. Loss of profit, adipic acid market was dragged down by the downward trend of pure benzene. According to the monitoring of business associations, the reference price of East China market is about 8000-8300 yuan/ton, and the price of South China is generally between 8100-8300 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of adipic acid in the chemical branch of business association believe that the adipic acid market is still in the process of de-stocking. The price fluctuation is also returning to rationality. In the later stage, the market may fall into the stage of weak rise and fall. Therefore, the Business Association believes that in June, adipic acid market is difficult to improve greatly, and the market may stop falling and stabilize more, but the upward margin will not be very large.