I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R134a is temporarily stable this week. On October 14, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 23833.33 yuan / ton, and the average price of weekend (18 days) was 23833.33 yuan / ton. This week’s market is weak and stable, down 18.75% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the market price of R134a in refrigerant market this week is temporarily stable, the price of hydrofluoric acid in upstream is weak and consolidated, the cost support for refrigerant is weakened, and the pessimistic atmosphere is meditated in the field. At present, the macro-economic downturn, the development of the automobile industry is not optimistic, the demand for refrigerant R134a is flat, and the downstream traders are cautious. Most of them take the goods on demand to avoid overstocking. At present, the start-up of refrigerant R134a unit is low and the trend is weak. As of October 18, R134a of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. has quoted 26000 yuan / ton, R134a of Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 22500 yuan / ton, R134a of Zhejiang lengwang technology has quoted 23000 yuan / ton, R134a of Yuemei Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 25000 yuan / ton, R134a of Longxun trade has quoted 23500 yuan / ton, R134a of Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 27000 yuan / ton, and R134a of blue planet has quoted 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price trend of upstream products in domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in South China is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in North China is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid maintains a low level, the supply of spot goods is sufficient, but the demand is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid maintains a low level of volatility. Downstream major air-conditioning manufacturers have stepped out of the maintenance period one after another, the output of the automobile industry is flat, the demand for refrigerant R134a is not high, and there is no good support.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 41st week of 2019 (10.14-10.18), there are 14 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are DMF (12.00%), hydrogen peroxide (11.62%) and sulfur (5.32%). There are 38 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 9.07%), phenol (- 7.16%) and isopropanol (- 6.22%). This week’s average was – 0.76%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business agency, at present, the refrigerant R134a domestic market is weak, the transaction environment continues to be depressed, and the export market is still very flat. Overall, the market trading is relatively weak, and it is expected that the R134a market will be weaker in the short term.