Price data

By September 20, the average domestic fuel oil distribution price was 4650.00 yuan/ton, up 2.42% from 4540.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

The fuel oil commodity index on September 20 was 94.18, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.75% from the cyclical peak of 115.91 points (2018-10-17), and up 104.38% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic fuel oil trade is normal this week, the actual transaction price is about 4650 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was 54.85 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the week, 58.13 US dollars per barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase and decrease of 5.98%; Brent crude oil was 60.22 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the week and 64.40 US dollars per barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase and decrease of 6.94%. Saudi Arabia’s oil equipment was attacked early this week and the market rose in panic. Since the attack, the situation has stabilized. Saudi Arabia has not reduced its oil exports, and American inventories have increased. International oil prices have soared and fallen. On Wednesday, September 11, the weighted average price of Fukushi shale oil rose by 154 yuan/ton, the winning bidding amount was 0.9 million tons, the bidding amount was 16.2 million tons, and the volume was 0.9 million tons; the bid base was 3,406 yuan/ton, and the winning range was 3,486-3,506 yuan/ton. On Thursday, September 19 (Thursday), the weighted average price of Fukushi shale oil fell by 45 yuan/ton, with 11,000 tons of winning bid, 11,900 tons of bidding and 11,000 tons of volume. The tender base is 3406, the winning range is 3446-3486 yuan/ton, and the next tender time is September 26.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 11 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20). Among them, there are 3 kinds of commodities rising more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The first three commodities rising are liquefied gas (7.87%), Brent crude oil (6.94%) and WTI crude oil (5.98%). ) There is a total of 1 kind of commodities falling in the ring ratio, and diesel oil (-0.77%) is the product of the decline. This week’s average rise and fall was 1.98%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts of business associations believe that the surge of international crude oil in Saudi Arabia at the beginning of this week led to the rise of domestic ship fuel market and shale oil prices, which led to a sharp increase of 100-200 yuan/ton in domestic ship fuel market. However, international crude oil prices dropped sharply at the weekend, and shale oil prices fell. The overall ship fuel market was depressed and the wait-and-see mood was strong. Fuel oil market prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, or around 4650 yuan/ton.