1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: p-value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the market of lithium hydroxide has been running strongly, and the price has shown a rising trend after the festival. As of February 25, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 64666.67 yuan / ton, up 12.79% compared with February 18 and 13.45% compared with January 25, according to the data of business club’s block list.

The large lithium hydroxide plant has resumed production. At present, the enterprise’s offer is mainly rising, the low price shipping intention is not strong, and the market is strong. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of lithium hydroxide of some enterprises in the near future is summarized as follows: the external quotation of Shanghai Yulun industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 75000 yuan / ton; Zigong tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 53000 yuan / ton; Shanghai oujin industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 66000 yuan / ton; Shanghai huaran industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 65000 yuan / ton The spot price of the merchants is in line with the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

According to customs statistics, China’s cumulative import volume of lithium hydroxide from January to December 2020 is 526223 kg, and the cumulative export volume is 56573167 kg.

According to the price monitoring of upstream lithium carbonate, the market price of lithium carbonate in East China continued to rise in February 2021. As of February 24, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 76400 yuan / ton, up 11.37% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 68600 yuan / ton on February 1). On February 24, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 81600 yuan / ton, which increased by 12.09% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 72800 yuan / ton on February 1).

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on February 24, 2021, there were 45 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector which rose month on month, among which 11 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 12% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities increased were maleic anhydride (41.00%), crude benzene (20.18%) and 1,4-butanediol (14.93%). There were two kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with propane (- 0.44%) and styrene (- 0.35%) as the top two products. The average daily rise and fall was 2.25%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the lithium hydroxide analysts of business news agency, the current price rise of upstream lithium carbonate has boosted market confidence and led to the firm offer of lithium hydroxide enterprises. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may be stable, medium and strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market news.

After the festival, the adipic acid market continued to rise. According to the monitoring of business society, adipic acid in East China rose by 11.79% or about 1000 yuan from February 18 to 24. At present, the mainstream market quotation has reached about 9500 yuan / ton. The surge of cost and the improvement of supply and demand have promoted the rise of the current market.

After the festival, crude oil prices continued to soar, and so far have reached the highest point in one year. Driven by this favorable situation, the downstream chemical industry developed at many points, and the rising trend was very good. In particular, the downward industrial chain of pure benzene increased significantly. As the raw material of adipic acid, pure benzene increased by nearly 20% after the festival. The surge in cost has led to the concentration of adipic acid plants.

Pure benzene market trend chart

On the supply side, the operating rate of adipic acid enterprises remained at a normal level, and the shipment situation was also driven by the centralized procurement of dealers after the festival, which was better than that before the festival. According to the business news agency, some dealers in East China are reluctant to sell. They are expected to be bullish. There is also some water under the market speculation.

PA66 market trend chart

The demand side improved slightly compared with that before the festival. On the one hand, the downstream procurement increased. With the coming of downstream manufacturers’ return to work, the operating rates of polyurethane, PA66 and other fields increased. From the perspective of downstream product prices, it can also explain the problem. After the festival (February 18-24), PA66 increased by 15.38%.

According to the business community, the current round of adipic acid rising market has opened up. At present, the market still has no clear signal to stop rising. The cost side may continue to rise. Driven by the market of large-scale resumption of work after the festival in the downstream, adipic acid still has room to continue to rise.

1、 Price trend

On February 23, the overall styrene market rose slightly. The mainstream quotation of styrene today was 9400.00 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton or 1.08% from 9300.00 yuan / ton yesterday (February 22). On the cost side, crude oil continued to rise sharply, and the price of pure benzene rose sharply. Today’s mainstream price of pure benzene was 6450.00 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton or 1.26% from 6370.00 yuan / ton yesterday (February 22). Styrene cost side support is strong. In terms of operating rate, the operating rate of styrene in China is 87.86%, which is at a medium high level. However, the inventory pressure of production enterprises is not great. The main port of East China last week’s inventory reached 168000 tons. Although the social inventory of styrene is rising, the overall inventory is lower than the market expectation. In the near future, with the follow-up of market speculation and demand for just needed goods, the port is expected to open Go to the library. Downstream, with the rise of styrene price, the downstream PS and ABS factories have a strong price. Although the production and marketing profits of some enterprises are affected by the sharp rise of styrene, the mainstream downstream production and marketing still maintain a good profit, and with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream starts one after another, providing buffer support for the rapid rise of styrene market.

To sum up, the fundamental support of styrene is still strong, but it rises too fast, so we need to pay attention to the downstream acceptance. It is expected that the price of styrene will still be stronger in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of February 22, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 9966.67 yuan / ton. After the festival, the price of DMF was on the market all the way, the negotiation atmosphere was positive, the enterprises resumed work and production, the shipment was smooth, and the logistics gradually recovered. The overall market showed a rising state.

The domestic DMF market focuses on high level operation, the inventory remains low, the supply of spot goods is tight, the factory negotiation price is not high, after the festival, the demand has increased, the downstream follow-up is positive, the mainstream methanol around Shijiazhuang in the upstream is stable to 2000-2100 yuan / ton, the overall market is stable and rising, the current reference price of DMF is 10000-10150 yuan / ton in East China market, 10300-10500 yuan / ton in South China market.

On February 21, the chemical industry index was 924 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.06% from 1016 points (2012-03-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 54.52% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency DMF analysts believe that: all enterprises return to work, return after the festival, the market atmosphere is positive, and maintain the upward trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, on February 19, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 13933 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month, the same as that at the beginning of the month, the same as that at the same period last year, and the recent market was relatively stable.

2、 Market analysis

After the holiday, the market of salicylic acid has been running smoothly. Since the eighth day of the lunar new year, the industry has returned to the market one after another with a good mentality. The manufacturers have no pressure on the inventory, and the price remains at the pre Festival level. Wait and see the market reaction. With the gradual recovery of downstream demand and the rising price of raw materials, salicylic acid market may fluctuate. As of February 19, the quotations of salicylic acid industrial enterprises were mostly in the range of 12000-15000 yuan / ton, the supply and demand were stable, the prices were stable, the quotations of pharmaceutical grade were mostly in the range of 23000-25500 yuan / ton, and the quotations of sublimation grade were mostly in the range of 15000-20000 yuan / ton, the quotations were stable.

In terms of raw materials, the market offer of phenol rose. On February 19, the reference price of phenol was 7130.00, up 7.7% compared with that on February 1 (6620.00). The price of sulfuric acid rose. On February 19, the reference price of sulfuric acid was 342.50, up 6.2% compared with that on February 1 (322.50). The upstream sulfur market was recently consolidated at a high level, and the cost support was good. However, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general, the supply of sulfuric acid was normal, and the ex factory price of sulfuric acid fluctuated slightly in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in week 07 (2.15-2.19) of 2021, there were 41 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 16 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 17.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were styrene (21.58%), isooctanol (18.48%) and hydrobenzene (15.81%). There were 6 kinds of commodities that declined month on month, and the top 3 products were hydrogen peroxide (- 1.94%), acrylic acid (- 1.39%) and DMF (- 1.38%). This week, the average rise and fall was 2.42%.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of business news agency believe that: after the holiday, the price of salicylic acid has no obvious change, the industry has returned to the market one after another, with good mentality, no pressure on manufacturers’ inventory, and the price remains at the pre Festival level. It is expected that the price will be stable in the short term by waiting for the market reaction.

Price fluctuation of domestic main hydrobenzene market before and after Spring Festival in February 2021 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region, price on February 1, price on February 5, price on February 8, price on February 19

East China, 4650-4800, 5100-5200, 5300-5400, 5850-5950, + 1175

In February 2021, the market price of hydrobenzene in East China rose to 5350 yuan / ton before the festival and 5900 yuan / ton after the festival. During the Spring Festival, the price rose by 550 yuan / ton, with a cumulative rise of 1175 yuan / ton this month.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec’s pure benzene in 2021 (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

January 7, 4550, + 150

January 11, 4650, + 100

January 30, 4850, + 200

February 4, 5150, + 150

February 7, 5400, + 250

February 18, 5800, + 400

Before and after the Spring Festival, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was increased twice, with a total increase of 650 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, RMB 5800 / T will be implemented, of which RMB 5750 / T will be implemented by Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd., and RMB 800 / T will be increased in February.

During the Spring Festival holiday, affected by the historical extremely cold weather in the United States, the crude oil production in the United States is expected to drop by more than 40%, and the international oil price rises accordingly. A number of pure benzene plants in the United States were also affected by the bad weather and stopped unscheduled. During the holidays, the pure benzene external market and downstream styrene external market rose sharply. Under the macro favorable blessing, the main domestic traders and petrochemical enterprises have followed the rise after the opening of the festival, and the market price has increased significantly. On the 18th, the domestic chemical futures market made a good start, with pure benzene and styrene, the main downstream product, rising by more than 14%. Immediately, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 400 yuan / ton, and implemented 5800 yuan / ton. However, as the holiday has just ended, there are still some traders who have not yet returned, and the market quotation is still low. In terms of port inventory, the inventory in East China is maintained at 200000 tons, which is lower than the previous period.

As a whole, the current round of increase actually started at the end of January. After the failure of the restart of the plant, the annual output of 480000 tons of the plant will be extended to the end of February, one month later than the expected start-up time. The whole February has a certain impact on the market supply, and the downstream purchasers of CICC are mainly long-term contract customers concentrated in East China. Under the favorable factors of the expected supply reduction in the future market, the market transaction and investment in the whole East China region surged, and some customers increased the purchase volume before the festival, resulting in a large increase in demand in a short period of time, and the market price in the East China region continued to rise. As a substitute for pure benzene, the trend of hydrogenated benzene is basically the same as that of pure benzene. Driven by the price of pure benzene and the improvement of purchasing enthusiasm in East China, the market of hydrogenated benzene has been rising all the way. As of press release, the active quotation of hydrogenated benzene in East China is less, and the ex factory price in Hebei has risen sharply, so it is difficult to find low-cost goods.

The downstream unit of pure benzene has a good start-up in the near future, there is no obvious maintenance plan, and the demand for pure benzene and hydrobenzene is good.

The business community believes that the current pure benzene market has reached a high level in nearly a year. Affected by multiple positive factors, the price is mainly volatile in the short term. The market expects that April will be the peak period for the maintenance of pure benzene units in traditional places, and the demand for hydrogenated benzene will be increased to a certain extent. It is expected that the price will still have upward space under the dual support of macro positive and future demand.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde this week is 6500 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

On February 5, Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene, offered 6000 yuan / ton of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax, which was the same as last time. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 6500 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 7000 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. Close to the Spring Festival, more enterprises stop for maintenance. Affected by the epidemic some time ago, the market supply of polyoxymethylene is tight, which mainly supports the high price operation of polyoxymethylene. The market demand of paraformaldehyde is acceptable.

The upstream raw material methanol, according to the monitoring data of the business society, the domestic methanol market this week fell by about 1.88%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community polyoxymethylene analysts expect that before the festival polyoxymethylene stability.

1、 Price trend

This week, the distribution price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable, with the quoted price of 32.50 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s sulfuric acid market was temporarily stable, with the sulfuric acid commodity index of 50.19 on February 5.

2、 Market analysis

From the quotation of manufacturers, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week, with large inventory and general downstream demand. Heze Jiangyuan quoted 400 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 320 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 350 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Taiyuan kunshengda quoted 120 yuan / ton at the weekend, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has been consolidated at a high level recently, and the cost support is good. However, the market prices of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and bromine in the downstream rose slightly, which had a positive impact on sulfuric acid.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of February, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches has been consolidated at a high level in recent years, the market in the lower reaches is better, the purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid in the lower reaches is normal, and the product trend rises under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business community sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or small shock rise.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices fell first and then rose this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 58038.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, up 0.14% compared with the beginning of the year, and up 25.78% compared with the same period last year. LME copper rose in March this week, closing at US $7872.5, up 0.73% this week; Shanghai copper index’s focus rose this week, ending at 58210 yuan, up 1.15% this week. This week, the international copper index closed at 51880 yuan, up 1.15%.

As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, copper inventory is expected to accumulate, but the current global dominant inventory is relatively low; before the holiday, downstream stock preparation ends, processing enterprises and traders gradually enter the holiday state, and market consumption is weak seasonally. But this year, in order to control the spread of the epidemic, China encourages people to stay in place for the Chinese New Year. Many rural workers may not return home, so the slowdown in industrial activity may not be as significant as in previous years. In the past, hundreds of millions of people returned home during the Spring Festival.

Moreover, small Non-agricultural enterprises in the United States exceeded expectations to boost market sentiment, overseas market demand was boosted, and concentrate processing fees remained low, indicating tight supply. At present, the copper concentrate processing fee continues to be low, which indicates that the supply at the ore end is tight, and the current inventory has not been obviously accumulated, so this year’s accumulation rate may not be as high as in previous years. Copper prices are expected to maintain a narrow volatility trend before the year.

The domestic butadiene market continued to decline in January. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the month was 7751 yuan / ton, and that at the end of the month was 6056 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 21.86% within the month and a year-on-year decrease of 24.82%.

In January, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. With the release of Wanhua, Wuhan and srbang production, the domestic supply side increased significantly. At the same time, under the expectation of South Korea’s LG plant restart, the market expectation was weak. During the month, Yangzi Petrochemical’s styrene butadiene and cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants were shut down due to accidents, resulting in an increase in butadiene surplus, which was dragged down by the imbalance between supply and demand, and the internal and external markets continued to decline. The supply in East China and the external market is abundant. With the continuous decline of the external transaction price and the wide reduction of Sinopec’s supply price, the domestic butadiene Market Center continues to decline. In the middle and late period, some of the lower reaches of the North stock before the festival, there is a certain support for the market, and the goods holders also have a more obvious intention to support the price, the market fell into a stalemate consolidation situation.

In terms of enterprises, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline in January. With the release of Wanhua, Wuhan and srbang production, the domestic supply side increased significantly. At the same time, under the expectation of South Korea’s LG plant restart, the merchants’ market expectation was weak. During the month, Yangzi Petrochemical’s styrene butadiene and cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants were shut down due to accidents, resulting in an increase in butadiene surplus, which was dragged down by the imbalance between supply and demand, and the internal and external markets continued to decline. The supply in East China and the external market is abundant. With the continuous decline of the external transaction price and the wide reduction of Sinopec’s supply price, the domestic butadiene Market Center continues to decline. In the middle and late period, some of the lower reaches of the North stock before the festival, there is a certain support for the market, and the goods holders also have a more obvious intention to support the price, the market fell into a stalemate consolidation situation.

External price: as of February 1, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at US $735-745 / T; CFR China closed at US $775-785 / T. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $545-555 / T; FD closed at Euro 595-605 / T in northwest Europe.

The recent performance of downstream profits is fair, and there is a certain support for butadiene market in the face of demand. February coincides with the Spring Festival holiday, affecting the domestic butadiene market trading atmosphere performance is cold. At the beginning of this month, most mainstream manufacturers have sources of goods for export. It is expected that the external quotation of major manufacturers will continue to decline. However, under the guidance of demand support and post Festival news, the market decline is limited, and the overall performance is slightly consolidated. Business community butadiene analysts expect short-term domestic butadiene market consolidation.