1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the overall price of toluene rose slightly this week. On April 30, the price of toluene was 5697 yuan / ton; On Sunday (May 9), the price was 5902 yuan / ton, up 205 yuan / ton or 3.6% from last week; It was 68.63% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Supported by the price rise of related aromatic products, toluene market was active after the festival. Sinopec’s Toluene listing price continued to rise, and the bottom support strengthened. However, the downstream demand follow-up is general, and the gasoline blending rise lacks sustainability, which limits the toluene rise. In terms of external market, as of May 7, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 760 US dollars / ton, up 35 US dollars / ton, or 4.83%, from April 30; The price of imported toluene in East China was 780 US dollars / ton, up 35 US dollars / ton, or 4.7%, on April 30.

In terms of crude oil, good news: within the week, OPEC + kept the policy of gradually increasing production unchanged, and the energy demand in Europe and the United States improved to support the market. Bad news: the epidemic situation in India is severe, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. On April 30, Brent rose $1.775/barrel, or 2.65%; WTI rose $1.4 per barrel, or 2.21%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, East China’s TDI fell in a weak position, with domestic goods at 14766.67 yuan / ton, down 5.74% from last week and up 47.67% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 60% year on year. As of May 7, the closing prices in Asia were US $859-861 / T FOB Korea and US $877-879 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The external support and the bottom support of Sinopec’s listing price are strong, and the short-term trend of toluene is expected to be still strong. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene’s late arrival in Hong Kong and downstream demand changes on toluene price.