Zinc price trend
According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the zinc market rebounded in the second quarter, and the zinc price rose slightly in April. As of April 30, the average price of zinc was 21976.67 yuan / ton, up 1.12% compared with the price of 21733.33 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month.
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry in April was 51.1%, 0.8 percentage points lower than that of last month, and still higher than the critical point. The manufacturing industry continued to expand. But raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index are lower than the critical point. The strength of production expansion of manufacturing industry has weakened, the expansion of market demand of manufacturing industry has slowed down, the inventory of main raw materials of manufacturing industry has decreased compared with that of last month, and the employment prospect of manufacturing enterprises has declined. The overall macro-economy rose slowly, but the rise slowed down, and the macro-economy did not support the rise of zinc market.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in the first quarter of 2021, the GDP increased by 18.3% year on year and 0.6% month on month. It can be seen from the data that the GDP kept rising in the first quarter, but the growth rate slowed down. As a whole, there is still a certain gap according to the expected target. In the future, the economic stimulus plan of the country may be strengthened. The rapid recovery of national economy is conducive to the rise of zinc market, and it is expected that the price of zinc will rise in the future.
Zinc ingot inventory in main domestic markets
According to the statistical data, the domestic zinc market inventory decreased slowly after March, and the effect of zinc market destocking is remarkable, but the zinc market inventory has not reached the lowest point at the beginning of the year, the domestic zinc market inventory is still rising, and the zinc price has a certain rise support, but the zinc market is difficult to be crazy in February, and the zinc price is expected to rise slowly in the future.
Zinc processing fees remain low
In April, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was maintained at about 3700-4000 yuan / ton, which was the lowest level since September 18, and was even lower than 6500 yuan / ton in 20 years. Low processing fee forced zinc smelters to reduce their enthusiasm to start operation, and the output of zinc market decreased. Insufficient supply of zinc market or reverse stimulated the increase of zinc concentrate processing fee. Zinc ingot supply may increase in the future.
Domestic zinc monthly output
date Monthly output (10000 tons) Cumulative output (10000 tons) Year on year growth of the month Cumulative growth (%)
March 2021 fifty-five one hundred and sixty-two point eight ten point nine six point three
February 2021 – one hundred and seven point five two point eight
December 2020 sixty point two six hundred and forty-two point five – one point five two point seven
November 2020 fifty-eight five hundred and eighty-two point one – zero point seven three point one
October 2020 fifty-eight point six five hundred and twenty-four point two nine point three three
September 2020 fifty-six point five four hundred and sixty-five point six two point nine two point one
August 2020 fifty-three point nine four hundred and ten point nine five point one four point three
July 2020 fifty-two point four three hundred and fifty-six point nine – zero point two four point six
June 2020 fifty-two three hundred and four point eight one point two seven point seven
May 2020 fifty-one point four two hundred and fifty-two point seven four point five nine point one
April 2020 fifty-one point seven two hundred and one point three seven point three ten point seven
March 2020 forty-eight point nine one hundred and forty-nine point five four point seven eleven
February 2020 — one hundred and four — twelve point nine
December 2019 sixty point seven six hundred and twenty-three point six nineteen point five nine point two
November 2019 fifty-nine point four five hundred and sixty-nine point two thirteen point one nine
October 2019 fifty-four point eight five hundred and twelve point three eight point three nine point four
September 2019 fifty-four point eight four hundred and fifty-eight point three eighteen point nine nine point five
August 2019 fifty-two point eight four hundred and three point four eighteen point nine eight point two
July 2019 fifty-one point two three hundred and forty-three point eight seventeen point four six point one
June 2019 fifty-one point three two hundred and eighty-one point five ten point three two point three
May 2019 forty-eight two hundred and twenty-six point nine seven point four – zero point six
April 2019 forty-six point five one hundred and seventy-six point five – zero point four – four point four
March 2019 forty-five point three one hundred and thirty point six zero point four – five point one
February 2019 — eighty-five point one — – eight point two
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the monthly output of zinc city has increased significantly, and the output of zinc in the first quarter has increased significantly year on year. The supply of zinc city is sufficient, and the rising power of zinc city is limited.
Analysis summary and Prospect
Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, believes that: in April, the zinc market continued the early period of zinc market destocking, and the zinc market has certain positive support, but the domestic zinc market’s monthly output rose, and the zinc market’s supply was sufficient. In terms of demand, the domestic economy rose slowly in the first quarter, the growth rate slowed down at the end of April, the overall macroeconomic growth slowed down, and the demand of zinc market was lower than expected. Generally speaking, the zinc ingot processing fee remains low, the zinc ingot output is expected to rise lower, the national economic stimulus may be strengthened, the zinc market demand is expected to rise, the future zinc market is expected to rise, and the zinc price fluctuates.