In January, the domestic liquid ammonia market rose first and then fell, with an overall upward trend. The focus of trading in Shandong and Hebei moved up slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, the main production area in Shandong increased by 0.76% this month. At the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of liquid ammonia was 4000-4250 yuan / ton. Coal prices rebounded sharply and cost support was strong. In addition, after the new year’s day, market transportation recovered and manufacturers’ shipments rose, supporting the recovery of prices. However, the rainy and snowy weather in most parts of the north in the middle and late ten days led to an increase in manufacturers’ shipment pressure, especially in Shanxi. Before the Spring Festival, enterprises reduced inventories and prices fell steadily.

On the supply side, the overall supply of this month is better than that of last month, mainly due to the centralized procurement and preparation of goods in the downstream before the festival and the increase of enterprise ammonia, which is also the main reason to support the high price of liquid ammonia. The operating rate in the main production areas is generally high, and there are few device maintenance. The resumption of Anqing, Jincheng, Kaiyue, Fufeng, Jindadi and xinlianxin devices last month brought increment to the market. Market supply increased significantly. Sufficient supply is the main factor restricting ammonia price.

On the cost side, coal continued to rebound in January. Support the downstream liquid ammonia Market. At present, the price of liquid ammonia is still supported by the cost side, and the coal stopped falling and rebounded after the festival. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of January 20, thermal coal rose by more than 20%. Near the end of the year, due to the impact of safety inspection, the supply of thermal coal has been tightened, but the supply guarantee policy continues. On the whole, the supply is still relatively loose, the sales situation of producing areas has improved, and the coal price has increased after the reduction; In terms of ports, after new year’s day, downstream inquiry increased, market activity increased, and traders’ market sentiment improved.

On the demand side, the price of urea rose this month. According to the monitoring of business society, the increase was 3.61%. In January, part of the domestic compound fertilizer market rose steadily, the rigidity of urea was relatively strong, and the stronger prices of ammonium phosphate and potassium fertilizer supported the market cost and mentality; In addition, the price rise of some enterprises has promoted the gradual elimination of low-end goods in the market; Before the festival, dealers’ enthusiasm for centralized preparation and delivery increased, and the market atmosphere improved.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Since January, the range between them has widened, mainly because the downstream urea is stronger than liquid ammonia.

Future forecast: the business society believes that the domestic compound fertilizer market is expected to continue to improve after the festival. The price may have a good performance, which will benefit the ammonia Market. Especially in the middle and late ten days, the market gradually returned to the market. Superimposed with the release of spring farming demand, it is expected that liquid ammonia may have some room for rise.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate rose in January. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4420 yuan / ton, up 11.62% from 3960 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 52.41% year-on-year.

In January, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate rose sharply. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods in the field was tight, the delivery situation in the field was supported, the manufacturer’s inventory was low, and the coal price in the upstream of the terminal changed little. In addition, the price of liquid ammonia increased slightly, which affected the price trend of ammonium nitrate. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream nitro compound fertilizer is purchased on demand. Recently, the trend of downstream nitro compound fertilizer is stable, and the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production. However, the civil explosive industry is in the peak demand season, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the price of ammonium nitrate Market is greatly affected. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 4600-4800 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 4400-4500 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid declined in January. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2200 yuan / ton, down 2.22% from 2250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Shaanxi Xinghua offers 2300 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 2000 yuan / ton; Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Group offers 1650 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation of domestic nitric acid plants is stable, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the field is poor. In January, the price trend of nitric acid market declined slightly, and the price of raw nitric acid fell, which has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market. The price of ammonium nitrate market rose due to tight supply.

The domestic market price of liquid ammonia in the upstream rose in January. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 4443.33 yuan / ton, up 0.76% from the price of 4410 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, mainly in Shandong and Hebei, and increased in East and North China due to the decline of ammonia. According to the monitoring of business agency, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 0.38% by the end of the month. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4000-4300 yuan / ton. On the supply side, the operating rate of liquid ammonia is mainly stable, the ammonia volume in the main production areas of Shandong, Hebei and two lakes has little change, the price of liquid ammonia is stable, the ammonia release in North China, northwest and central China has decreased, and the price has mainly rebounded. The amount of ammonia released in Southwest China and Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the price was weak and stabilized. The price rise of upstream liquid ammonia forms a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate rises.

Recently, the number of holiday enterprises has gradually increased, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the raw material market price remains high, which has brought some positive support to the ammonium nitrate Market. Recently, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate Market is normal, and the ammonium nitrate analyst of business society believes that the market price of ammonium nitrate remains stable in the later stage.

441# silicon price trend

Near the end of the year, the metal silicon continued to fall in January. In the past few weeks, the silicon factory was in the stage of inventory cleaning and had a strong shipping mentality. Many traders even chose to reduce prices for shipping. By the middle of the year, the market trading atmosphere became lighter, and the silicon price continued to stabilize and operate in a weak position. As of the 26th, the national metal silicon quotation was 20790 yuan / ton, down 2.03% month on month.

On January 25, the metal silicon commodity index was 144.71, unchanged from yesterday, down 65.99% from the highest point of 425.46 in the cycle (2021-09-28), and up 110.43% from the lowest point of 68.77 on September 25, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Import and export data in December

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China’s metal silicon export volume in December was 63191.14 tons, an increase of 5037.024 tons or 8.66% compared with 58154.116 tons in November, an increase of 6235.898 tons or 10.95% compared with 56955.242 tons in December 2020. From January to December 2021, China’s metal silicon exports totaled 777789.662 tons, an increase of 158545.306 tons or 25.60% over 619244.356 tons from January to December 2020.

In recent February, the export volume of metal silicon has gradually picked up. At present, the price of metal silicon has dropped to a relatively stable price level, and overseas orders have gradually increased. However, in January, the epidemic relapsed in many places in China, and some ports suspended freight operations. In addition, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the ocean going ships in the port basically stopped shipping in the middle of this month, and the export volume of metal silicon in January is expected to be less than that in December.

Downstream aspect

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of January 26, the average price of organosilicon DMC market in mainstream areas was 31660 yuan / ton, with a monthly cumulative increase of more than 25%, and the average price of aluminum alloy market was 20300-20500 yuan / ton. In the early stage, the supply of organosilicon DMC was seriously out of stock, coupled with the centralized preparation in the downstream, and the price continued to rise. In the later stage, most downstream organosilicon enterprises basically completed the preparation years ago. The aluminum alloy market must become popular and tend to be saturated, the demand slowed down, and the silicon factory mainly received the orders after the festival.

Future forecast

The weak and stable market of metal silicon in January is mainly subject to the market. At present, the market as a whole remains stable, the demand in the export market is weak, the export traders basically enter the closed state, the domestic market has also been closed and stopped selling, basically entering the closed state, and both supply and demand shrink simultaneously. It is estimated that the operating rate of metal silicon is not high after the year. Aluminum alloy is limited by the environmental protection of the Winter Olympics, and the demand is weak. In the first quarter, it is basically in the situation of both supply and demand. It is worth noting that silicone has a certain support for the price of silicon, and the price of metal silicon may be stable and strong after the festival.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market will return to the upward route again within the month, with the price mainly increased, and the price in Henan rose to 3700 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3653.33 yuan / ton on January 17 and 3720.00 yuan / ton on January 24, with an increase of 1.82% during the week and 3.91% compared with January 1.

As of January 24, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region 4140 yuan / ton

Hebei region 4140 yuan / ton

Henan region 3720-3750 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market stopped falling and went up. The main production areas in Henan increased by 80-120 yuan / ton, and Hebei and Shandong also followed up to varying degrees. During the week, the raw material methanol market rose steadily, the cost support was acceptable, and the civil LPG market rose one after another driven by international crude oil, which brought some benefits to the dimethyl ether Market. In addition, the current market supply is not high. Near the Spring Festival, the downstream market replenishment is active, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, and the price rises one after another.

The focus of methanol market rose this week, and the market atmosphere stabilized after rising. The main contract of methanol futures rose strongly in the first half of the week against the background of strong macro, and the sale of methanol futures in the main production areas in the mainland was still stopped after the price rise; The main consumer markets are also normally outsourced due to the slow arrival speed, and the prices rise simultaneously. According to the monitoring data of business agency, from January 14 to January 21, 2022, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises increased from 2382 yuan / ton to 2507 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 5.25%, the price decreased by 4.57% month on month, and the year-on-year increase was 7.39%.

At present, the market price of raw material methanol is strong, and the civil market of liquefied gas is mainly increased, which has brought good support to the market. Before the festival, the trading atmosphere in the market was good, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, the overall inventory was at a low level, and the mentality was relatively strong. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market will rise steadily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. This week, the factory quotation of domestic salt lake potassium chloride was 3190.00 yuan / ton, up 46.67% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price is about 3900-3950 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of imported potassium chloride increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 4250.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4316.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.57%. Overall, the domestic potassium chloride market rose slightly this week. On January 23, the commodity index of potassium chloride (import) was 113.60, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 17.46% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers increased slightly this week: the factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was 3190 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the weekend; Anhui Badou 62% Russian White potassium distribution quotation is 4300 yuan / ton, an increase of 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. Xiangyang youdeshi potassium chloride distribution quotation is 4300 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. Zibo Dehe potassium chloride distribution quotation is 4350 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4200-4300 yuan / ton. Border trade 62% Russian White potassium is about 4100 yuan / ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 8166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8266.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.22%, an increase of 25.73% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 5866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6033.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.84%, up 44.51% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market of potassium chloride rose slightly, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride was good.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may rise slightly. The price of Salt Lake and zangge potassium chloride is stable and the volume is increasing in succession, but the market supply is still limited and the supply is tight. The winter storage market has started one after another, and traders take a small amount of goods. From the perspective of downstream demand, the downstream market of potassium chloride increased slightly, the downstream demand is good, and the just need to purchase is mainly. The news said that a large contract was about to be signed in the near future, boosting confidence. The international price of potash fertilizer is adjusted at a high level, and the domestic potash fertilizer is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the domestic potassium chloride price may fluctuate slightly in the short term, focusing on the news related to large contracts.

I Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 10066 yuan / ton, and the average price of PS ordinary materials at the weekend was 10100 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.33% and 14.77% compared with the same period of the year.

II quotations analysis

The focus of the domestic PS market increased by 90-300 yuan / ton. The rise of crude oil led to the strength of pure benzene and styrene, and the price of PS followed the rise. During the week, there was a high interest in low-level goods preparation in the downstream, as well as some short filling demand, and the transaction volume was phased. However, the shrinking volume of transactions after the market rose showed that buying was cautious. Small and medium-sized downstream factories have holidays one after another. At present, most of them are in demand for goods before the Spring Festival, resulting in tight supply of some goods.

On January 20, 2022, the price of benzene in East China market was 9650-10750 yuan / ton, the low-end chain rose 150 yuan / ton, and the high-end chain rose 250 yuan / ton.

III Future forecast

The rise of crude oil has raised costs and market expectations, but the pre Festival preparation of small and medium-sized downstream factories or their closing in succession, and the interest in receiving goods after the rising price may also be weakened. We pay attention to the operation dynamics of devices in the Spring Festival next week, and it is expected that the PS market will be consolidated next week.

In 2021, the domestic butadiene market experienced three complete “first decline and then rise” and a long-term sharp decline, and the overall decline ended. Prices can be described as high “stimulus” and falling “outrageous”. The overall market is heavily affected by supply and demand. At the same time, external factors also play a considerable role. According to the price monitored by business society, the average price of domestic butadiene producers fell from 7715 yuan / ton on January 1 to 4451 yuan / ton on December 31, with an overall price decrease of 42.57%. The highest price level appeared at the beginning of the third quarter, which was 11482 yuan / ton on July 20, and the lowest point appeared at 4451 yuan / ton on December 31 at the end of the year, with the maximum amplitude of 61.23% in the whole year.

In the first quarter of 2021, the butadiene market rebounded after the first decline, and the price increase was small, but the overall fluctuation was obvious. It increased from 7751 yuan / ton on January 1 to 7860 yuan / ton on March 31, with an overall increase of 1.40%, and the maximum amplitude in the quarter was 39.07%.

In January, due to the relatively abundant supply of goods in the domestic market and the temporary shutdown of rubber devices in East China, the price support at the supply side was relatively weak, and the price negotiation range continued to move down. With the gradual decline of prices and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, some downstream bargain hunting have been replenished. Under the relatively low price of butadiene, manufacturers’ enthusiasm for taking goods has increased. At the same time, domestic butadiene units have entered the maintenance state since March of the year, and the maintenance expectation has also boosted the mentality of the industry. During the Spring Festival holiday, the overall commencement of downstream industries was significantly higher than that in the same period last year, and the demand side also had strong support for prices. After the festival, due to the continuous rise in the prices of related products, the driving force on the price of butadiene was relatively obvious, and the overall market price remained relatively high in March. However, since late March, with the unexpected shutdown of rubber plants in South China and the export of some Sinopec goods, the spot circulation in the market has increased, the supply side’s support for the price has weakened significantly, and the price has turned downward.

Butadiene rebounded after the second price drop in the second and third quarters of 2021, but the price fluctuated greatly this time. The overall price decreased narrowly but rebounded sharply. According to the monitoring price of business society, the average price of domestic butadiene manufacturers increased from 8441 yuan / ton on March 20 to 11312 yuan / ton on July 30, with an obvious increase and a long rise time, with an overall increase of 34.01% and a maximum amplitude of 76.44%.

After the slight rise in the domestic butadiene market in April, the shock weakened, and the overall negotiation atmosphere in the market was slightly general. Mainly due to the unplanned shutdown of some units and the shutdown of some oxidation dehydrogenation units under the cost pressure in April, the spot circulation in the market decreased to a certain extent, and the supply side strengthened the price support. In addition, some sources in East China were anxious about the tank capacity during the month, and the selling price was slightly low, which also dragged the market upward, and the shock weakened after the market rose slightly. Since May, some early-stage parking devices have been started one after another, but the actual export products are limited, and the supply side has strengthened its price support. In addition, the month’s internal and external market trend continued to be strong, and some traders in East China had limited intention to lower prices under the support of costs, which also supported the market upward. Since June, most manufacturers in the north have no obvious inventory pressure. Supported by the strong trend of the external market in East China, traders’ enthusiasm for export arbitrage has increased, and the supply of goods gives priority to export.

In late July, although the external price was strong, due to the typhoon, the shipment of some domestic export sources was delayed, and there were many short-term shutdown of downstream devices, resulting in weak market demand. The short-term market expectation is short. With the weakening of downstream inquiry intention, the focus of spot price continues to decline.

From the end of July to the end of the year, the domestic butadiene market fell unilaterally. Although there was a slight recovery in mid October, the overall market remained depressed and sorted out. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic butadiene producers fell from 11482 yuan / ton on July 22 to 4451 yuan / ton on December 31, down 61.23%.

In August, with the launch of new production capacity and the planned restart of some units, the supply side of the domestic butadiene market was widened to a certain extent. Some northeast enterprises recently resumed competitive sales, and the social supply of goods increased significantly. In addition, the start-up of synthetic rubber industry has decreased and the cost side is under pressure, which affects the supply and demand fundamentals of butadiene and is difficult to find a significant positive boost. Although the external price performance was strong, affected by the typhoon, the shipment of some domestic export sources was delayed, and there was no lack of short-term shutdown of downstream devices, and the market demand performance was weak. In September, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. Fushun Petrochemical and Liaoning Huajin, the major manufacturers in Northeast China who have been overhauled for many days, began to resume supply this month, forming a “heavy blow” to the already depressed market. Near the end of September, the external price fell sharply, and the domestic market fell accordingly. At the end of September, the market atmosphere recovered slightly due to the preparation before the festival.

At the beginning of October, the butadiene market continued the downturn in September. With the rise of the external market, domestic traders actively speculated, and major production enterprises such as Sinopec raised the ex factory quotation for many times. In October, the butadiene market “hit the bottom and rebounded”, reversing the decline since the end of July 2021 and showing a narrow rise. After a short sharp rise in the market, the butadiene market was like a “flash in the pan”, which was fleeting, and the price ladder fell. Insiders have said that the recent market “can’t understand” and “can’t guess”. Throughout November, the domestic butadiene market fell unilaterally and deeply. Both the external market and the domestic market atmosphere are relatively depressed. Coupled with the restart of some enterprises’ devices, the market supply increases. However, the downstream demand is mainly rigid demand, which is not significantly good in the short term. The trading atmosphere is depressed. Most people in the industry are bearish on the future market, and the butadiene market is not optimistic. In December, the domestic butadiene market fell in the first half of the month, then the decline stopped and entered the consolidation stage. Finally, the decline ended with the reduction of Sinopec’s price. The main reason is the drag of the external market and the sufficient supply of goods in the domestic market, resulting in the continuous decline of prices.

The overall market price focus of butadiene in 2021 has rebounded compared with last year. The annual market price change is mainly caused by the combined action of supply and demand fundamentals and other factors, in which supply and demand fundamentals are the main driving factor affecting the annual price change. During the year, due to the centralized maintenance of some butadiene units and the rapid growth of export volume, the phased spot resources were tight and the price rose significantly. After the price rose to a high point, as the downstream cost was under pressure, it was difficult to continuously follow up the high price of butadiene, some downstream manufacturers reduced their negative production, and the demand side’s support for the price weakened; At the same time, in the second half of the year, some new butadiene production capacity continued to release, the market supply was abundant, the supply side was difficult to support the price, and the price continued to decline. In addition, public health events, extreme weather and other factors also have phased effects on the production, logistics and transportation of butadiene and its downstream devices.

In 2021, the annual new capacity of butadiene in China was about 580000 tons / year. By the end of 2021, the cumulative total capacity had reached 5.45 million tons / year, an increase of 11.9% over 2020. In 2022, the butadiene production capacity is still in the period of rapid expansion, but the downstream adiponitrile and ABS industries have certain incremental expectations in the second and third quarters, and the market may be boosted by better demand, but the market supply pressure is also gradually emerging. Under the supply pressure, the mainstream shock range of butadiene market is relatively low.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda was adjusted and operated this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price in Shandong market was 942.5 yuan / ton. On January 17, the average price in Shandong market was about 957.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.59% and a price increase of 98.45% over the same period last year. On January 17, the caustic soda commodity index was 137.77, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.10% from the highest point 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 111.60% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of caustic soda is stable and small this week. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% alkali in Shandong is about 880-980 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 32% liquid alkali in Hebei is about 950-1030 yuan / ton. Recently, caustic soda manufacturers have overhauled, but the overall impact is small. Downstream alumina enterprises mainly purchase on demand because the Spring Festival is approaching. Caustic soda manufacturers intend to raise prices before the Spring Festival, but the driving force is not strong.

According to the price monitoring of business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the second week of 2022 (1.10-1.14), there were 1 kind of rising commodity, 3 kinds of falling commodities and 1 kind of rising and falling commodity. The main commodities rising were: caustic soda (1.59%); The main commodities falling were PVC (- 0.60%), light soda ash (- 0.56%) and calcium carbide (- 0.36%). Both rose or fell by 0.01% this week.

Business analysts believe that recently, the overall operation of caustic soda manufacturers has remained stable, and the operating rate has not changed much. The downstream alumina enterprises still mainly purchase on demand, and the Spring Festival is approaching, and there are production reduction expectations. It is expected that the subsequent weak operation of caustic soda is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

In 2021, the market of butadiene rubber fluctuated and rose. According to the monitoring of business society, the low price was 10490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and the high price was 16120 yuan / ton at the end of November, with an amplitude of 53.67%; The price at the end of the year was 14290 yuan / ton, an increase of 34.30% over the beginning of the year.

From the beginning of the year to the end of March, the price of polybutadiene rubber rose from 10640 yuan / ton on January 1 to 13575 yuan / ton on March 30, an increase of 27.58%. There are three main reasons: first, the demand for recovery in the downstream after the epidemic increased rapidly; Secondly, the “extremely cold weather” in the United States has pushed up the price of crude oil and brought a tide of rising prices of global commodities; Finally, the unexpected shutdown of Yangzi and Maoming Petrochemical Shunding units further tightened the supply side; The three factors jointly promoted the sharp rise in the price of polybutadiene rubber from the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter.

Since the end of March, on the one hand, affected by the re outbreak of the epidemic in foreign countries, foreign automobile and tire factories have been closed and shut down more, affecting tire exports and weakening rubber demand; On the other hand, the raw material butadiene fell sharply in March and April, dragging the cost side; The attack from upstream and downstream and the sharp decline in the price of natural rubber jointly dragged polybutadiene rubber out of a wave of decline from April to June. The price fell from 13575 yuan / ton to 11910 yuan / ton on June 10, down 12.27%.

6. In July, the international crude oil price continued to rise. The main contract price of WTI reached 75.23 yuan / ton on July 2, driving the raw material butadiene to reach the annual high of 11482 yuan / ton on July 20. The cost formed a strong support for cis-polybutadiene rubber. The price of cis-polybutadiene rubber rose sharply from June to July, from 11910 yuan / ton to 14690 yuan / ton on July 19, an increase of 23.34%.

From July to September, the operating rate of domestic cis-polybutadiene rubber was higher than that in the first half of the year, and the supply was mainly loose. In addition, the price of raw butadiene fell sharply, which once again formed a great negative on the cost side; In addition, the novel coronavirus pneumonia was diagnosed as a new global variant in August. The new variant strain of the delta brought shadow to the commodity market. The market of butadiene rubber dropped again, and the price dropped from 14690 yuan / ton to 13000 yuan / ton in September 21st, or 11.50%. 200 million.

The domestic policy of “dual control of energy efficiency” was launched in September. Affected by the policy, the supply of polybutadiene rubber tightened. In addition, the world began to fall into an “energy crisis” in October, and the international crude oil price soared again. On October 27, the main contract of WTI crude oil soared to US $84.65/barrel. Under the influence of both cost and supply factors, Polybutadiene rubber formed an “m” double roof at 15380 yuan / ton on October 22 and 16120 yuan / ton on December 1. After that, due to the difficulty of keeping up with the demand, polybutadiene rubber finally fell back to around 14290 yuan / ton at the end of the year.

In 2021, the price of raw butadiene rose and fell sharply, and the cost side was supported in the early stage and dragged down in the later stage. From the price comparison chart of butadiene butadiene butadiene rubber, after the price comparison between the two reached the same in June in the first half of the year, the trend difference in the second half of the year gradually expanded, and the trend of butadiene rubber in the second half of the year is basically not subject to cost constraints.

In 2021, the natural rubber market fluctuated sharply at the beginning of the year, and mainly fluctuated slightly in the later stage. The large rise of natural rubber in the early stage boosted cis-polybutadiene rubber. In the later stage, when the supply and demand side of natural rubber weakened slightly, the trend showed a small fluctuation, and the impact on cis-polybutadiene rubber weakened.

In 2021, after COVID-19′s rapid economic recovery and monetary easing, the price of butadiene rubber hit a three year high.

In 2021, the monthly tire output was high before and low after, and the rise of CIS polybutadiene rubber in the first half of the year was mainly driven by strong demand; The second half of the year was mainly affected by cost, policy and supply.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that, first, it is difficult for the international crude oil price to decline in the short term, coupled with the rebound of butadiene, the cost support will strengthen in the short term; In the long term novel coronavirus pneumonia is being developed, once the drug is contained, the epidemic control will be relaxed again. The global economy will recover strongly, and the demand will be better throughout the year. In addition, under inflationary pressure, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates rises, and the monetary tightening will bring some negative fluctuations to the market, so we need to be vigilant. Overall, the butadiene rubber market will continue to rebound slightly in the first quarter of 2022, and will continue to fluctuate and rise in the later period.

Commodity index: on January 15, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 105.09, down 0.18 points from yesterday, down 5.76% from the highest point 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 26.78% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: data monitoring shows that in the first half of the month, the domestic market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China still maintained a slight downward trend. The mainstream market price was about 17342.86 yuan / ton on the 1st and about 17200 yuan / ton on the 15th, with a range of 0.82%. At present, the epidemic situation is severe and the Spring Festival is approaching. More enterprises stopped production before the year, with sufficient inventory, general demand and weak transaction; Different enterprises have different prices due to the impact of inventory. Some enterprises have tight inventory recently after they stopped production years ago, and their prices have increased to a certain extent.

Industrial chain: acrylic acid: in the first half of the month, the market price in East China increased by 3.28% from 13200 yuan / ton to 13633.33 yuan / ton; The acrylic acid market is steadily rising this week. Recently, the price of raw propylene is relatively strong, the cost support is rising, the unit load of some factories is reduced, the market supply is reduced, the downstream is orderly prepared, and the market negotiation focus is high. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will mainly operate at a high level in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance. Acrylonitrile: Since New Year’s day, the mainstream market of raw acrylonitrile has fallen every day. In the first half of the month, acrylonitrile has been significantly reduced by about 1950 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream market quotation has fallen to about 11450 yuan / ton. In conclusion, recently, the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials continues to decline sharply, the support continues to weaken rapidly, and the wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream procurement is strong.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market fluctuated and decreased in the first half of the month. The average domestic price was 4710 yuan / ton on January 1 and 4610 yuan / ton on January 15, down 2.12%. The domestic liquid market has changed from continuous rising after the festival to frequent falling, and the price has also continued to decline. The decline was mainly due to the start-up and resumption of production of the early maintenance liquid plant and the increase of market supply. However, due to the impact of recent public health events in Henan and other places, the start-up of some end users was limited, the demand decreased, the shipping atmosphere of the liquid plant weakened, the sales pressure increased, the prices fell again and again, and many fell back below 5000 yuan, and the market focus moved down rapidly. The LNG analyst of business society believes that under the current situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the market, the domestic liquid market is weak. Although the raw material gas flow auction boosts the market, the decline of domestic liquid price slows down or rises slightly, it is difficult to form an inflection point. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range.

Future forecast: the market of raw material acrylonitrile continues to decline, with a cumulative decline of nearly 2000 yuan / ton so far this month; The price of raw material acrylic acid is still weak and rising, and the market trading is dominated by rigid demand; The cost fell sharply and the support of polyacrylamide market continued to weaken. Although more enterprises have stopped production due to the impact of the epidemic and spring break, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream procurement willingness is not strong, and the trading continues to be weak. On the whole, according to different inventory conditions, some enterprises have insufficient inventory and the price increases accordingly; Under the dual influence of industrial chain cost transmission and weak downstream procurement, the prices of some enterprises will be stable and lower before the year in order to withdraw funds; Secondly, the logistics cost will increase the commodity cost to a certain extent due to the impact of the epidemic and the Spring Festival. It is reported that the range in Henan is nearly 20%, and the future market of polyacrylamide will rise due to this impact.