441# silicon price trend

Near the end of the year, the metal silicon continued to fall in January. In the past few weeks, the silicon factory was in the stage of inventory cleaning and had a strong shipping mentality. Many traders even chose to reduce prices for shipping. By the middle of the year, the market trading atmosphere became lighter, and the silicon price continued to stabilize and operate in a weak position. As of the 26th, the national metal silicon quotation was 20790 yuan / ton, down 2.03% month on month.

On January 25, the metal silicon commodity index was 144.71, unchanged from yesterday, down 65.99% from the highest point of 425.46 in the cycle (2021-09-28), and up 110.43% from the lowest point of 68.77 on September 25, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Import and export data in December

According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China’s metal silicon export volume in December was 63191.14 tons, an increase of 5037.024 tons or 8.66% compared with 58154.116 tons in November, an increase of 6235.898 tons or 10.95% compared with 56955.242 tons in December 2020. From January to December 2021, China’s metal silicon exports totaled 777789.662 tons, an increase of 158545.306 tons or 25.60% over 619244.356 tons from January to December 2020.

In recent February, the export volume of metal silicon has gradually picked up. At present, the price of metal silicon has dropped to a relatively stable price level, and overseas orders have gradually increased. However, in January, the epidemic relapsed in many places in China, and some ports suspended freight operations. In addition, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the ocean going ships in the port basically stopped shipping in the middle of this month, and the export volume of metal silicon in January is expected to be less than that in December.

Downstream aspect

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of January 26, the average price of organosilicon DMC market in mainstream areas was 31660 yuan / ton, with a monthly cumulative increase of more than 25%, and the average price of aluminum alloy market was 20300-20500 yuan / ton. In the early stage, the supply of organosilicon DMC was seriously out of stock, coupled with the centralized preparation in the downstream, and the price continued to rise. In the later stage, most downstream organosilicon enterprises basically completed the preparation years ago. The aluminum alloy market must become popular and tend to be saturated, the demand slowed down, and the silicon factory mainly received the orders after the festival.

Future forecast

The weak and stable market of metal silicon in January is mainly subject to the market. At present, the market as a whole remains stable, the demand in the export market is weak, the export traders basically enter the closed state, the domestic market has also been closed and stopped selling, basically entering the closed state, and both supply and demand shrink simultaneously. It is estimated that the operating rate of metal silicon is not high after the year. Aluminum alloy is limited by the environmental protection of the Winter Olympics, and the demand is weak. In the first quarter, it is basically in the situation of both supply and demand. It is worth noting that silicone has a certain support for the price of silicon, and the price of metal silicon may be stable and strong after the festival.