In January, the domestic liquid ammonia market rose first and then fell, with an overall upward trend. The focus of trading in Shandong and Hebei moved up slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, the main production area in Shandong increased by 0.76% this month. At the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of liquid ammonia was 4000-4250 yuan / ton. Coal prices rebounded sharply and cost support was strong. In addition, after the new year’s day, market transportation recovered and manufacturers’ shipments rose, supporting the recovery of prices. However, the rainy and snowy weather in most parts of the north in the middle and late ten days led to an increase in manufacturers’ shipment pressure, especially in Shanxi. Before the Spring Festival, enterprises reduced inventories and prices fell steadily.

On the supply side, the overall supply of this month is better than that of last month, mainly due to the centralized procurement and preparation of goods in the downstream before the festival and the increase of enterprise ammonia, which is also the main reason to support the high price of liquid ammonia. The operating rate in the main production areas is generally high, and there are few device maintenance. The resumption of Anqing, Jincheng, Kaiyue, Fufeng, Jindadi and xinlianxin devices last month brought increment to the market. Market supply increased significantly. Sufficient supply is the main factor restricting ammonia price.

On the cost side, coal continued to rebound in January. Support the downstream liquid ammonia Market. At present, the price of liquid ammonia is still supported by the cost side, and the coal stopped falling and rebounded after the festival. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of January 20, thermal coal rose by more than 20%. Near the end of the year, due to the impact of safety inspection, the supply of thermal coal has been tightened, but the supply guarantee policy continues. On the whole, the supply is still relatively loose, the sales situation of producing areas has improved, and the coal price has increased after the reduction; In terms of ports, after new year’s day, downstream inquiry increased, market activity increased, and traders’ market sentiment improved.

On the demand side, the price of urea rose this month. According to the monitoring of business society, the increase was 3.61%. In January, part of the domestic compound fertilizer market rose steadily, the rigidity of urea was relatively strong, and the stronger prices of ammonium phosphate and potassium fertilizer supported the market cost and mentality; In addition, the price rise of some enterprises has promoted the gradual elimination of low-end goods in the market; Before the festival, dealers’ enthusiasm for centralized preparation and delivery increased, and the market atmosphere improved.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Since January, the range between them has widened, mainly because the downstream urea is stronger than liquid ammonia.

Future forecast: the business society believes that the domestic compound fertilizer market is expected to continue to improve after the festival. The price may have a good performance, which will benefit the ammonia Market. Especially in the middle and late ten days, the market gradually returned to the market. Superimposed with the release of spring farming demand, it is expected that liquid ammonia may have some room for rise.