In 2021, the market of butadiene rubber fluctuated and rose. According to the monitoring of business society, the low price was 10490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and the high price was 16120 yuan / ton at the end of November, with an amplitude of 53.67%; The price at the end of the year was 14290 yuan / ton, an increase of 34.30% over the beginning of the year.

From the beginning of the year to the end of March, the price of polybutadiene rubber rose from 10640 yuan / ton on January 1 to 13575 yuan / ton on March 30, an increase of 27.58%. There are three main reasons: first, the demand for recovery in the downstream after the epidemic increased rapidly; Secondly, the “extremely cold weather” in the United States has pushed up the price of crude oil and brought a tide of rising prices of global commodities; Finally, the unexpected shutdown of Yangzi and Maoming Petrochemical Shunding units further tightened the supply side; The three factors jointly promoted the sharp rise in the price of polybutadiene rubber from the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter.

Since the end of March, on the one hand, affected by the re outbreak of the epidemic in foreign countries, foreign automobile and tire factories have been closed and shut down more, affecting tire exports and weakening rubber demand; On the other hand, the raw material butadiene fell sharply in March and April, dragging the cost side; The attack from upstream and downstream and the sharp decline in the price of natural rubber jointly dragged polybutadiene rubber out of a wave of decline from April to June. The price fell from 13575 yuan / ton to 11910 yuan / ton on June 10, down 12.27%.

6. In July, the international crude oil price continued to rise. The main contract price of WTI reached 75.23 yuan / ton on July 2, driving the raw material butadiene to reach the annual high of 11482 yuan / ton on July 20. The cost formed a strong support for cis-polybutadiene rubber. The price of cis-polybutadiene rubber rose sharply from June to July, from 11910 yuan / ton to 14690 yuan / ton on July 19, an increase of 23.34%.

From July to September, the operating rate of domestic cis-polybutadiene rubber was higher than that in the first half of the year, and the supply was mainly loose. In addition, the price of raw butadiene fell sharply, which once again formed a great negative on the cost side; In addition, the novel coronavirus pneumonia was diagnosed as a new global variant in August. The new variant strain of the delta brought shadow to the commodity market. The market of butadiene rubber dropped again, and the price dropped from 14690 yuan / ton to 13000 yuan / ton in September 21st, or 11.50%. 200 million.

The domestic policy of “dual control of energy efficiency” was launched in September. Affected by the policy, the supply of polybutadiene rubber tightened. In addition, the world began to fall into an “energy crisis” in October, and the international crude oil price soared again. On October 27, the main contract of WTI crude oil soared to US $84.65/barrel. Under the influence of both cost and supply factors, Polybutadiene rubber formed an “m” double roof at 15380 yuan / ton on October 22 and 16120 yuan / ton on December 1. After that, due to the difficulty of keeping up with the demand, polybutadiene rubber finally fell back to around 14290 yuan / ton at the end of the year.

In 2021, the price of raw butadiene rose and fell sharply, and the cost side was supported in the early stage and dragged down in the later stage. From the price comparison chart of butadiene butadiene butadiene rubber, after the price comparison between the two reached the same in June in the first half of the year, the trend difference in the second half of the year gradually expanded, and the trend of butadiene rubber in the second half of the year is basically not subject to cost constraints.

In 2021, the natural rubber market fluctuated sharply at the beginning of the year, and mainly fluctuated slightly in the later stage. The large rise of natural rubber in the early stage boosted cis-polybutadiene rubber. In the later stage, when the supply and demand side of natural rubber weakened slightly, the trend showed a small fluctuation, and the impact on cis-polybutadiene rubber weakened.

In 2021, after COVID-19′s rapid economic recovery and monetary easing, the price of butadiene rubber hit a three year high.

In 2021, the monthly tire output was high before and low after, and the rise of CIS polybutadiene rubber in the first half of the year was mainly driven by strong demand; The second half of the year was mainly affected by cost, policy and supply.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that, first, it is difficult for the international crude oil price to decline in the short term, coupled with the rebound of butadiene, the cost support will strengthen in the short term; In the long term novel coronavirus pneumonia is being developed, once the drug is contained, the epidemic control will be relaxed again. The global economy will recover strongly, and the demand will be better throughout the year. In addition, under inflationary pressure, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates rises, and the monetary tightening will bring some negative fluctuations to the market, so we need to be vigilant. Overall, the butadiene rubber market will continue to rebound slightly in the first quarter of 2022, and will continue to fluctuate and rise in the later period.