Commodity index: on January 15, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 105.09, down 0.18 points from yesterday, down 5.76% from the highest point 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 26.78% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: data monitoring shows that in the first half of the month, the domestic market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China still maintained a slight downward trend. The mainstream market price was about 17342.86 yuan / ton on the 1st and about 17200 yuan / ton on the 15th, with a range of 0.82%. At present, the epidemic situation is severe and the Spring Festival is approaching. More enterprises stopped production before the year, with sufficient inventory, general demand and weak transaction; Different enterprises have different prices due to the impact of inventory. Some enterprises have tight inventory recently after they stopped production years ago, and their prices have increased to a certain extent.

Industrial chain: acrylic acid: in the first half of the month, the market price in East China increased by 3.28% from 13200 yuan / ton to 13633.33 yuan / ton; The acrylic acid market is steadily rising this week. Recently, the price of raw propylene is relatively strong, the cost support is rising, the unit load of some factories is reduced, the market supply is reduced, the downstream is orderly prepared, and the market negotiation focus is high. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will mainly operate at a high level in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance. Acrylonitrile: Since New Year’s day, the mainstream market of raw acrylonitrile has fallen every day. In the first half of the month, acrylonitrile has been significantly reduced by about 1950 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream market quotation has fallen to about 11450 yuan / ton. In conclusion, recently, the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials continues to decline sharply, the support continues to weaken rapidly, and the wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream procurement is strong.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market fluctuated and decreased in the first half of the month. The average domestic price was 4710 yuan / ton on January 1 and 4610 yuan / ton on January 15, down 2.12%. The domestic liquid market has changed from continuous rising after the festival to frequent falling, and the price has also continued to decline. The decline was mainly due to the start-up and resumption of production of the early maintenance liquid plant and the increase of market supply. However, due to the impact of recent public health events in Henan and other places, the start-up of some end users was limited, the demand decreased, the shipping atmosphere of the liquid plant weakened, the sales pressure increased, the prices fell again and again, and many fell back below 5000 yuan, and the market focus moved down rapidly. The LNG analyst of business society believes that under the current situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the market, the domestic liquid market is weak. Although the raw material gas flow auction boosts the market, the decline of domestic liquid price slows down or rises slightly, it is difficult to form an inflection point. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range.

Future forecast: the market of raw material acrylonitrile continues to decline, with a cumulative decline of nearly 2000 yuan / ton so far this month; The price of raw material acrylic acid is still weak and rising, and the market trading is dominated by rigid demand; The cost fell sharply and the support of polyacrylamide market continued to weaken. Although more enterprises have stopped production due to the impact of the epidemic and spring break, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream procurement willingness is not strong, and the trading continues to be weak. On the whole, according to different inventory conditions, some enterprises have insufficient inventory and the price increases accordingly; Under the dual influence of industrial chain cost transmission and weak downstream procurement, the prices of some enterprises will be stable and lower before the year in order to withdraw funds; Secondly, the logistics cost will increase the commodity cost to a certain extent due to the impact of the epidemic and the Spring Festival. It is reported that the range in Henan is nearly 20%, and the future market of polyacrylamide will rise due to this impact.