Price trend:

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the domestic ABS market rose in early August, and the spot prices of some brands increased. As of August 5, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offers was about 12250 yuan / ton, up or down + 1.66% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the price of styrene continued to fall at the beginning of this month. Affected by macro inflation factors such as weakening international crude oil, the market price fell. The center of gravity of the direct upstream pure benzene moves downward, which is difficult to support the styrene market. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak. Some maintenance units are restarted, and the market inventory is expected to rise. The transaction of styrene market is not good. It is suggested to pay close attention to the trend of cost side.

The market of acrylonitrile this week is weak due to the support of raw material cost, and the downstream demand is poor, so the propylene market is under pressure. The enterprises are not able to deliver goods, and the downstream customers mainly pay small bills, and the prices are seriously depressed. The enterprises are delivering goods, and the prices are successively lowered. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The supply of propylene market is loose. Under the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the price of propylene is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline, and some northeast enterprises bid for export to increase market supply. The external market continued to be depressed and reorganized, affecting the domestic market atmosphere. At the same time, the downstream demand continues to be weak, and the market is “unable to recover” due to various negative factors. In the short term, the domestic butadiene market may continue to settle at a low level.

This week, the three upstream materials of ABS cost side fell at the same time, and the support of ABS cost side was poor. On the macro level, the price of international crude oil continues to fluctuate under the influence of macro inflation factors, which is bad for the oil and chemical industry chain. In terms of industrial load, although the operating rate of ABS enterprises was forced to drop in the early stage, it was heard this week that some production lines were expected to return to work. At the moment when the industrial load is still high and the on-site supply is abundant, the increase in load is likely to be negative for the future market. The current season is in the off-season of the industry, especially the main downstream home appliances and other industries have insufficient output, and the on-site demand is weak. The merchants reduce the price and take the order, and the offer follows the market. After the settlement at the end of last week, the pressure on enterprises and the midstream eased. This week, the spot price was narrow, but some low-end factory offers were consumed, and the resistance of the buyer camp gradually emerged.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS rose this week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials fell, weakening the support for the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant, and demand follow-up is poor. The off-season market dominates the market, and some bargain hunting operations support the market. It is expected that the ABS spot market may turn down in the short term.

According to the bulk commodity list data of the business agency, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong was volatile and consolidated this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1206.67 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1213.33 yuan / ton. The current price rose 0.55% month on month, and the current price fell 9.68% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

This week, the formaldehyde market price in Shandong was basically stable. From the above figure, we can see that the formaldehyde market has not fluctuated much in the past two months. This week, the market fluctuated and consolidated, rising slightly. As of August 4, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1200-1220 yuan / ton. Recently, the methanol market has been shaken and consolidated, and the cost support is general. The formaldehyde market is basically stable under the influence of methanol, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve. Just need to purchase is maintained. The formaldehyde market transaction is general, and the market fluctuation is not large.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market has a slight upward trend, but the momentum is insufficient and the upward trend is weak. The main reasons are the following two aspects: one is that the cost has fallen significantly, and the chemical coal at the pit mouth has weakened; On the other hand, demand continues to be weak and market confidence is insufficient.

This week, the methanol market fell first and then rose, mainly due to shock consolidation. The downstream plate factories are generally operating, and they are more wait-and-see about the formaldehyde market. The bargaining mood is strong, and the market inventory digestion is poor. It is difficult to improve the formaldehyde price, maintain the shipment at a low price, and the formaldehyde situation has little fluctuation.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has been shaken and sorted out, and the demand of downstream wood panel factories has continued to be weak. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the chemical branch of the business agency expect that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall in shock.

In July, the domestic polysilicon market continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business community, polysilicon rose by 15.97% on a monthly basis. The main reason for the rise of silicon material is the expansion of supply and demand gap caused by tight supply. The downstream silicon wafer manufacturers raised the price support, and the high start-up rate of silicon wafers ensured the stable purchase volume; The price of superimposed battery chips has risen, the pressure on manufacturers’ profits has eased, and the price of imported silicon materials has also remained high. At the end of the month, the price range of single crystal dense materials was 282000-295000 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply, the supply of silicon material enterprises continued to shrink this month compared with June. The operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers was significantly lower than that of last month. There were 12 domestic polysilicon production enterprises in production. In the whole July, four in Xinjiang and one in Luoyang carried out equipment maintenance or line overhaul, affecting part of the output. However, the increment brought by the expansion of Sichuan and Baotou manufacturers and Asian silicon industry is not enough to make up for the loss of output. On the whole, the domestic silicon production fell in July. The tight supply pattern is still the main driver of the upward trend of silicon materials.

Most large manufacturers’ orders in August have been signed at the beginning of the month, and some scattered orders have flowed out, which continues to push up the market reference price of silicon materials. At the end of the month, enterprises began to sign new orders in September, but it is worth noting that in the last week of the month, the price of silicon material showed signs of stopping rising, and later, manufacturers signed long orders or ushered in downstream bargaining space.

In terms of intermediate products, the prices of some large silicon wafer manufacturers were adjusted at the end of July. Longji silicon wafer announced on the 26th that the quotations of various silicon wafer models were raised. At present, the price of silicon wafers has reached an unprecedented high, which has formed a strong support for silicon materials and put great pressure on downstream battery chips and components. Silicon chips were operating at a high level throughout the month, with prices stabilizing. Near the end of the month, M6 rose 0.25 yuan, and the mainstream transaction price was stable at about 6.33 yuan / piece; M10 rose by 0.24 yuan, and the mainstream transaction price remained at about 7.54 yuan / piece, while the mainstream transaction price of G12 silicon wafer rose to about 9.93 yuan / piece.

Battery chips and components: the price of battery chips also rose this month. The rise of battery chips was mainly concentrated at the end of the month. After the general rise in the price of silicon chips, Tongwei and other large manufacturers also followed suit. The price of battery chips of different models rose by 4-5 points /w in the month, or about 3-5%. Other enterprises followed the rise in prices, but the bargaining power of small and medium-sized battery chips was limited, and the delivery strength decreased significantly after the rise. The main reason is that the acceptance of downstream components is reduced, and the cost is squeezed again.

In the aftermarket forecast, polysilicon analysts of the business society believe that the shortage of silicon materials is the driving force behind the continuous rise in prices. At the same time, the pressure will continue to transmit to the downstream. The high cost and low supply in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain will gradually bring more and more heavy pressure to the downstream. The profits of cells and components are obviously squeezed, especially the profit space of terminal components is very limited. Due to the impact of high costs in the later stage, there may be a risk of demand decline. The silicon material price may be under pressure in the long term, and the silicon material price may remain high in the near future.

In July, high cost and low demand. In July, the market of viscose staple fiber was weak, and the price fell slightly. The price of raw material dissolved pulp remains firm, the comprehensive cost remains high, and the pressure of manufacturers is difficult to ease, which still has strong support for the price of viscose staple fiber. Manufacturers actively support prices, most of them offer stable prices, and most of them say they would rather reduce production than reduce prices. Some viscose staple fiber factories adopt the method of reducing production speed, so as to alleviate the contradiction between the current market downturn and rising inventory, and delay their own pulp inventory consumption.

In terms of demand, the traditional textile off-season entered in July, and the terminal demand showed no signs of improvement. In the short term, the willingness to take goods was not high. In addition, the high temperature in summer was coming, and the yarn enterprises started or showed a downward trend. The weak operation of the demand side restricted the rise of viscose staple fiber prices. The whole viscose staple fiber industry chain has entered a stalemate, and viscose staple fiber shows a situation of price without market.

Downstream cotton yarn prices fell significantly, popularity was relatively low, trading was light, and the overall inventory of the industry was still rising.

Trend chart of viscose staple fiber price

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of viscose staple fiber fell slightly in July. As of July 29, 2022, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2d*38mm viscose staple fiber was 15400 yuan / ton, down 260 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly decline of 1.66%.

Cotton yarn Market

Trend chart of cotton yarn price

The price of cotton yarn fell significantly (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) with an average ex factory price of 18866 yuan / ton, down 367 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.91%.

Aftermarket forecast

The cost pressure is not reduced, and it is difficult for viscose staple fiber factories to make concessions, but the demand for textile terminals continues to be flat, the trading volume has always been general, and the downstream order taking volume has always been general, and the whole viscose staple fiber industry chain has entered a stalemate. Viscose staple fiber showed a trend of price without market, and factory inventory increased. Business analysts predicted that the price of viscose staple fiber would face downward pressure.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the price of acetic acid continued to decline in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of acetic acid was 4125.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 3512.50 yuan / ton. Within the month, the price was reduced by 612.50 yuan / ton, a decrease of 14.85%, and the price was reduced by 41.30% year-on-year.

As of July 31, the details of acetic acid market prices in various regions in China during the month are as follows:

Regions, July 1, July 15, July 31

In South China, 3950 yuan / ton, 3650 yuan / ton, 3500 yuan / ton

In North China, 4050 yuan / ton, 3600 yuan / ton, 3500 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 4000 yuan / ton, 3650 yuan / ton, 3400 yuan / ton

Jiangsu Province, 3900 yuan / ton, 3550 yuan / ton, 3450 yuan / ton

Zhejiang Province, 4000 yuan / ton, 3650 yuan / ton, 3550 yuan / ton

The acetic acid market continued to decline in July, and the price continued to decline during the month. The market continued to be weak, mainly due to the continuous downturn in downstream demand and the weak demand in the month. The on-site trading was general, and a small amount was close to the rigid demand. On the supply side, the market supply was relatively sufficient, and the poor shipment of enterprises led to the increase of inventory pressure. In order to maintain the shipment Festival, manufacturers continued to sell at a profit, the quotation was lowered, the operator’s mentality was cautious and wait-and-see, coupled with the influence of buying up or not buying down, the acetic acid market was weak.

The price of downstream ethyl acetate continued to fluctuate and decline in July, and the quotation at the end of the month was 7200-7400 yuan / ton, down 4.76%. The downstream demand is sluggish, and the purchasing enthusiasm is weak, resulting in a relatively high inventory of ethyl acetate. However, in terms of construction, the average operating rate of ethyl acetate in July is less than 40%, and the manufacturers have a strong attitude of supporting prices. Therefore, the decline is slower than that of acetic acid. Due to weak demand and insufficient support, the market continues to be weak.

Business analysts believe that the domestic acetic acid market is relatively sufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is light. Because the price of acetic acid has fallen near the cost line, the mentality of the industry is temporarily stable and wait-and-see, and the decline of acetic acid has slowed down. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will be consolidated and operated, and attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up.

The price of DOTP fell in July

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DOTP fell violently in July. As of July 29, the price of DOTP was 9000 yuan / ton, down 8.16% from 9800 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month; Compared with July 17, DOTP prices remained stable. In July, the DOTP market fell, and the price of DOTP rose first and then fell in late October. The DOTP market stopped falling and stabilized.

The price of isooctanol fell violently in July

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of isooctanol fell violently in July. As of July 29, the price of isooctanol was 8100 yuan / ton, down 8.99% from 8900 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month; The price of isooctanol was stable compared with 8166.67 yuan / ton on July 17. In July, the price of isooctanol fell sharply. As the price fell, the price of isooctanol quickly approached the cost line. The price of isooctanol broke through the profit line, and the price of isooctanol stopped falling and adjusted. The overall isooctanol market was still weak, and the support for the future rise was insufficient, but the price of isooctanol approached the cost line, and the future decline space of isooctanol was limited.

PTA prices first fell and then rose in July

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PTA price fell violently in July. As of July 29, the PTA price was 6160.83 yuan / ton, down 6.78% from the PTA price of 6609.25 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month; Compared with the PTA price of 5784.17 yuan / ton on July 19, it increased by 6.51%. As the high crude oil price fell, PTA prices fell in the first and middle of July, and crude oil prices fell into a stalemate in the second half of July. PTA enterprises stopped parking more, PTA supply decreased, PTA prices stopped falling and rose, raw material prices rose, DOTP costs rose, and DOTP rising momentum increased.

PVC prices fell in July

 
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC price fell violently in July. As of July 29, the PVC price was 6498.57 yuan / ton, down 11.57% from 7348.75 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. In the first and middle of July, the price of PVC fell sharply, the price of PVC rose slightly in the last ten days, the downstream PVC market picked up, the demand for DOTP picked up slightly, and the downward pressure on DOTP weakened in the future.

Aftermarket expectations

According to DOTP data analysts, PTA prices fluctuated and fell due to the decline in crude oil prices; The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, and the cost of DOTP fell; PTA prices have stopped falling and rose since late last decade, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost of DOTP has increased. In the future, the price of DOTP raw materials has limited room to fall, the cost of DOTP has increased slightly, the price of PVC has stopped falling, the demand for DOTP has warmed up, the downward pressure of DOTP has weakened, and the upward momentum still exists. It is expected that the price of DOTP will rise slightly in the future.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of July 28, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 10100.00 yuan / ton, down 27.51% from July 1, down 30.02% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and down 26.10% from the same period last year.

Acrylic acid market fell in July. In the first half of the month, the raw propylene market was consolidated and operated, with general cost support. Some enterprises stopped for maintenance, and the acrylic acid operating rate decreased. However, the support for the market was limited, overseas demand weakened slightly, domestic downstream procurement was on demand, the demand side was poor, the market mentality was insufficient, and the acrylic acid price fell under pressure. In the second half of the month, the raw propylene market fluctuated and fell. The cost side support weakened, and the overall load rate of the market was not high, but the downstream procurement was cautious, the market transaction was just in need, the acrylic acid market fluctuated and fell, and the market atmosphere was light near the end of the month.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market continued to fluctuate and decline in July, and the price further fell. At the beginning of the month, the market was 7680 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 7234 yuan / ton, a monthly decrease of 5.81%.

According to the acrylic acid analyst of business club, at present, the cost support is limited, the demand follow-up is still insufficient, and the downstream procurement is cautious and wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may operate weakly and stably in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the changes in market news.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market as a whole fell, the market price in Henan was no longer strong, and most quotations were reduced. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3850 yuan / ton on July 17 and 3800.00 yuan / ton on July 25. The price remained unchanged during the period, up 14.58% compared with the same period last year.

As of July 25, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

Jiangxi Province, 3920 yuan / ton

Hebei. 3800 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 3730-3820 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether Market as a whole continued to be weak, and most of the ex factory quotations in Henan market were reduced. After holding steady for many days, the dimethyl ether market finally ushered in a downward trend. At present, the market is dominated by negative factors. Although the raw material methanol market is volatile and rising, and the cost has brought some support to the market, due to the decline of international crude oil, the civil market price of liquefied gas, a related product, has been reduced, and the trend is weak. In addition, under the influence of the traditional off-season, the terminal demand is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is light. The manufacturer’s mentality is weak, and the disk is low.

In the spot market of raw methanol, the average price of domestic methanol in East China port market was 2404 yuan / ton on July 21, down 1.07% from the previous trading day. On the supply side, some major production enterprises have device maintenance, and some regions have limited production possibilities. From the demand side, the downstream just needs to purchase.

On the whole, the current raw material methanol market has increased, and the cost side has brought some support to the market. However, the civil LPG market of related products is weak and downward, with a bad market mentality. The downstream continues to maintain on-demand replenishment, and the market trading atmosphere is light. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market may still fall in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 4650 yuan / ton on July 18, and the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 4640 yuan / ton on July 25. The price of monoammonium phosphate fell 0.22% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4700 yuan / ton on July 18, and 4725 yuan / ton on July 25. The price of diammonium phosphate rose 0.53% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the ammonium phosphate Market is still in poor condition, and the trend is volatile and weak. The price of raw sulfur continues to decline, and the cost support is weakened. The transaction focus of downstream compound fertilizer was lowered, and the purchase of raw material monoammonium was reduced. Domestic demand for diammonium is less in the off-season, mainly for export. At present, most manufacturers of ammonium phosphate have suspended their quotation, and the quotation of traders is chaotic. This week, the market quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 4560 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of 58% powdered ammonium is about 4750 yuan / ton. There is no quotation in other regions, and the actual transaction is negotiated. This week, the market quotation of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is about 4700 yuan / ton, the market quotation of 64% diammonium in Guizhou is about 4750 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of 60% diammonium is about 4300 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, sulfur prices continued to fall this week. The downstream demand continues to be weak, the enthusiasm for entering the market is general, the shipment of enterprises is poor, there is inventory pressure, there is a low-cost supply in the market, the downstream purchase is cautious, the enterprise quotation is downward, the sulfur support is weak, and the short-term sulfur market is weak.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market has been running strongly this week. The market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 1100-1150 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is 980-1030 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand for phosphate rock is stable, and the trading atmosphere in the site is normal.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analyst of business agency, the current raw material price trend is weak, the market demand for ammonium phosphate is sluggish, the industry is cautious, and the focus of traders’ transactions is down. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, the chloroform market fell slightly this week (7.18-7.25). As of July 25, the price of chloroform apron in Shandong remained at 2850 yuan / ton, down 1.30% from 2887 yuan / ton last Monday.

Although Jinling Dongying and other methane chloride plants shut down, the domestic market supply continued to be loose; In addition, the operation of downstream refrigerants is low, and chloroform is purchased on demand, so there are few market transactions.

This week (7.18-7.25), the spot price of methanol rebounded slightly, and the cost support strengthened slightly, but the upper suppression was obvious, and the later rebound was difficult to continue. According to the business agency, as of July 25, the spot price of methanol was 2432 yuan / ton, up 1.62% from 2393 yuan / ton last Monday.

In the off-season of the industrial chain, the downstream refrigerant of chloroform operates stably, and the low level of operation is stable, which has a certain support for chloroform, but the support is still weak.

Analysts of methane chloride data of business agency believe that domestic supply pressure is still on; Refrigerant demand is supported to some extent, and chloroform is expected to maintain a narrow consolidation in the later period.