1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, domestic toluene showed a rising trend this week. On January 10, the price of toluene was 3810 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (January 17), the price was 3910 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton or 3.71% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Within the week, Sinopec’s Toluene price increased by 150-200 yuan / ton. In terms of external market, as of January 15, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was 533 US dollars / ton, up 17 US dollars / ton or 3.29% from January 8; the price of toluene imported from East China was 532 US dollars / ton, up 7 US dollars / ton or 1.33% from January 8. During the week, crude oil and external market prices continued to rise last week, which was supported by favorable conditions, and toluene prices continued to rise.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell after rising this week, which was lower than last week. Compared with January 8, Brent fell by $0.775/barrel, or 1.42%; WTI rose by $0.16/barrel, or 0.31%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 24.38% and WTI decreased by 19.98%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China was stable this week, with domestic goods at 12666.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.26% over the same period last year. At present, the domestic market is dominated by consolidation and operation, with cautious attitude in the market, weak follow-up in the downstream and inactive trading.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price this week was more stable than last week. Sinopec’s listed price was about 4700 yuan / ton, down 31.88% year on year. As of January 15, the closing prices of p-xylene market in Asia were US $671-673 / T FOB Korea and US $689-691 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Affected by the public health events in Hebei and the rain and snow weather in northern China, transportation is limited, and some domestic downstream terminal plants are expected to shut down one after another, resulting in weaker demand for toluene. Toluene prices are expected to fluctuate next week. Continue to pay attention to the situation of downstream stock before the Spring Festival and the impact of gasoline blending price trend on toluene price.

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the external price of ethylene has dropped recently. On January 11, the price was 1086.75 US dollars / ton, and on January 18, the average price of ethylene was 1059.75 US dollars / ton, down 2.48%. The current price has increased by 8.09% month on month, and the current price has increased by 28.11% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market showed a downward trend. As of the 15th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1040-1050 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $980-990 / T. European ethylene market prices fell, as of the 15th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1093-1107 / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1103-1114 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. fell. By the 15th, the price was 914-926 US dollars / ton. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, America and Asia showed a downward trend. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market was poor, the market trading atmosphere was cold and clear, and the market fell all the way.

International: on January 15, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $52.42/barrel, down US $1.15. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell, the settlement price of the main contract was $55.10/barrel, down $1.32. Oil prices fell more than 2% on Friday, adding to the epidemic in many parts of the world, raising fuel demand concerns.

Recent styrene market price shocks consolidation. After entering January, the inventory of northern styrene enterprises dropped, the impact on East China arbitrage weakened, the price of production enterprises rose again, and the cost support and some downstream replenishment transactions supported the high opening of the market. And the terminal inventory continued to rise, the emergence of class library, on-site supply increased. The overall downstream production and sales declined, but some of the downstream began to prepare for the holiday in succession. The market transactions were improved, and the price rise of production enterprises followed up. Recently, the price of styrene in East China has been raised to around 6600-6700 yuan / ton.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, the global multi regional epidemic affects the atmosphere of the crude oil market, the international oil price falls, and the cost support is weak. Therefore, the data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall in the following direction.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 15, the reference average price of silicone DMC market in the mainstream areas of data monitoring was 21500 yuan / ton, which was 167 yuan / ton higher than that of working day (reference average price of 21333 yuan / ton on January 12), and 333 yuan / ton lower than that of January 1, 2021 (reference price of 21833 yuan / ton), with a decrease of 1.53%.

After falling, silicone DMC finally ushered in low price upward

At the end of 2020, the market of silicone DMC in China dropped rapidly. In January 2021, the market of silicone DMC was still weak and weak. The quoted price of mainstream silicone DMC factories was 21000-23000 yuan / ton, and the quoted price of low end was 20500 yuan / ton. Although the price dropped to a reasonable level, the downstream purchasing atmosphere continued to be light and the demand was cautious. In the middle and first ten days of January, on the 11th, Shandong Longcheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd The price of DMC in most of the other factories basically remained at the beginning of the month, and some factories closed their offer. This sharp decline brought considerable benefits to the downstream market. Then on the second day, the downstream supplementary orders increased, and the trading atmosphere turned better. From the 13th to the 15th, the leading enterprises were in the market After reducing the price of silicone DMC for several consecutive days, the factory price of silicone DMC was finally slightly increased by 300-500 yuan / ton. At present, the factory price of silicone DMC is 19500-19700 yuan / ton.

A small rebound gives the industry confidence, short-term silicone DMC will be more stable and stronger operation

Organosilicon DMC market has been falling for more than a month, and the price has been hovering at a low level for more than half a month. At present, driven by leading enterprises, the market is in a stalemate, the downstream compensation is more active, and new orders of factories are increasing. The olive branch of the price increase thrown by leading enterprises is just a light to illuminate the current market downturn atmosphere, give the industry confidence, coupled with the Spring Festival As the pace of the market is getting closer and closer, the downstream goods preparation will be started one after another. Therefore, the analysts of silicone DMC in the business community believe that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC as a whole will run stably, moderately and strongly. With the increase of demand, the market may usher in a sustained and steady rebound.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic PA66 market was strong in early January, and the spot prices of various brands rose. As of January 12, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 29650 yuan / ton, which was 0.85% lower than the average price level at the beginning of the month.

In terms of adipic acid upstream of PA66, according to the monitoring of business community, the market fluctuated in early January. On the 6th, it reached a high of 8100 yuan / ton, and on the 12th, it returned to the average price level at the beginning of the month, with the current amplitude of 0.75%. At the end of last month, many regions showed the state of trading price for volume, some dealers’ quotations dropped, and the prices dropped from a high level. At present, the price of upstream pure benzene is rising due to the promotion of crude oil and external market, and the strengthening of raw materials is beneficial to the price of adipic acid. In terms of market supply, the operating rate of manufacturers reached about 80% last month, and the market supply was relatively abundant. Recently, the downstream inquiry has increased, and there is just a need to enter the market before the festival, which supports the firm offer of businesses. However, the overdraft demand of the downstream stock before the festival does not rule out the possibility that the factory digests the inventory and purchases weakly after the festival. It is expected that adipic acid will continue to operate at a high level in the near future.

Adipic acid can support the cost of PA66. In the early stage, the operating rate of Zhejiang Huafeng increased and the supply increased. In the first ten days of January, there was no news that the supply side continued to rise. The improvement of the overall operating rate of domestic production lines was limited, and the current spot situation was still in short supply. There is no pressure on PA66 inventory at present, and polymerization plants and businesses are willing to support the price. In addition, the high level of adipic acid in the upstream is firm and the supply of goods in the site is tight, so PA66 has cost pressure. Before New Year’s day, international manufacturers have issued price increase letters for PA66 and its products in the industrial chain, and domestic spot prices are also supported by the external market.

Business analysts believe that: PA66 in early January domestic market trend is strong, spot prices rose. The fluctuation of upstream product market supports the cost of PA66. At present, the price of PA66 is at a high level, and the high level of the cost side is also a pressure. Downstream take goods passive follow-up, just need to buy, market mentality is OK. PA66 market is expected to remain high in the short term.

1、 Price trend

This week, the distribution price of sulfuric acid in Shandong rose, from 422.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 430.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.78%. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 49.42 on January 8.

2、 Market analysis

From the quotation of manufacturers, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province rose this week, the inventory of manufacturers was small, and the downstream demand was better. Heze Jiangyuan quoted 460 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 290 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was increased by 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 400 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Taiyuan kunshengda quoted 570 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has dropped slightly recently, with general cost support. However, the market prices of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and bromine in the downstream rose slightly, which had a positive impact on sulfuric acid. At the same time, in the near future, some sulphuric acid plants are under construction, the load is reduced, and the sulphuric acid supply is tight.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of January, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches has been consolidated at a high level in recent years, the market in the lower reaches is better, the purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid in the lower reaches is normal, and the product trend rises under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business community sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or small shock rise.

This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market basically ended last week’s rise, and the prices in Hebei and Shandong fell at the beginning of the week. According to the monitoring of the business community, the mainstream quotation in Shandong was 3000-3150 yuan / ton, with a drop of about 100 yuan / ton, and a drop of 0.85% according to the monitoring of the business community.

The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province generally declined, maintaining the steady state of last week. Due to the slight increase of inventory, the manufacturer’s price continued to decline by about 100 yuan / ton. The ammonia quantity in Shandong Province is basically in the balance of supply and demand, which still has some support for the price. In the downstream, the demand for agricultural fertilizer in the off-season is slightly insufficient, which is also the main reason for the weak price of liquid ammonia.

In other regions, the price of large factories in Hebei followed closely the price trend in Shandong. At the weekend, the price of large factories decreased by 50-70 yuan / ton. The volume of liquid ammonia in this region gradually slowed down. On the one hand, affected by the epidemic situation in Hebei, the pace of manufacturers’ delivery of goods slowed down. However, as the two large factories previously overhauled in Northeast China have started up, the export volume in Northeast China has declined, and the price support has declined. At present, the price of liquid ammonia is in the range of 3100-3250 yuan / ton.

In the future, the business association thinks that next week, the liquid ammonia market may be slightly adjusted. On the one hand, due to the normal operating rate of the manufacturers, there are not many maintenance manufacturers, and the inventory of large factories is in a state of accumulation. On the other hand, the current downstream off-season, the purchase of the negative effect of shrinking fermentation. It is expected that liquid ammonia may still have downward space next week.

In December, the domestic butadiene market dropped sharply. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic butadiene market price was 92009926 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7751 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 21.91% within the month and a year-on-year decrease of 6.07%.

The domestic butadiene market fell rapidly. Although some of the Northeast suppliers were shipped for export, the restart of Lotte plant led to weak external market. The start-up of Shandong Huayu and Wanhua plants and the export of Fushun Petrochemical led to weak market supply. Affected by the environmental protection and production restriction, the downstream construction was poor, the demand performance was low, and the contradiction between supply and demand was intensified, which dragged the market down continuously. At the end of the month, some downstream positions were filled before the festival, which once led the market to rise, but the supply was abundant and the demand was difficult to sustain, and the market returned to a weak position after a short-term shock.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s East China butadiene supply price has increased by 900 yuan / ton month on month, with the implementation of 10100 yuan / ton since November 23; Sinopec’s East China butadiene supply price has decreased by 2100 yuan / ton month on month, with the implementation of 8000 yuan / ton since December 25; and sipang’s 100000 ton / year oxidative dehydrogenation unit Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 T / a extraction unit was in stable operation, with an increase in export sales in the second half of the month, and the total volume of on-line export sales in the month was 2460 tons; Wuhan Petrochemical’s 130000 T / a extraction unit was shut down for maintenance on October 17 and restarted on December 22; Shandong Huayu’s 60000 T / a extraction unit was shut down in January and restarted in early December for its own use Mainly.

Enterprise, price (yuan / ton), plant dynamic

Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. operates normally with an annual capacity of 1.68 million tons

Normal operation of 80.12 million T / a plant in Shanghai Petrochemical Company

Yangzi Petrochemical’s 80.12 million T / a unit operates normally

The 80.2 million T / a plant of Sinopec is in normal operation and mainly supplied by each other

Maoming Petrochemical’s 80.15 million T / a unit is in normal operation, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export

Guangzhou Petrochemical’s 80.03 million T / a unit is in normal operation, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export

Wuhan ethylene 80.13 million T / a plant restart on December 22

External price: as of December 30, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at US $1105-1115 / T; CFR China closed at US $1055-1065 / T. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 920-930 USD / ton; FD closed at 765-775 EUR / ton in northwest Europe.

With the restart of Wuhan Petrochemical Company and Jiangsu sipang plant and the gradual release of Yantai Wanhua production, the supply side of domestic butadiene market will be abundant next month, and it is expected that the supply pressure will be increased after part of the source of export is transferred to domestic sales. In terms of downstream demand, affected by environmental protection and other factors, the construction of latex and tire industries in the downstream of northern China has declined, and the supply and demand fundamentals have not been significantly improved. Business community butadiene analysts expect that the domestic butadiene market is mainly in the doldrums in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of plasticizer DOP rose first and then fell in December. The price of DOP rose sharply in the middle of the month, and then stabilized. At the end of the month, the price lost its support and fell in shock. On December 22, the price of DOP reached the highest point of 10566.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.19% compared with the price at the beginning of the month; on December 31, the average price of DOP quotation was 10350.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.05% compared with the highest point of the month.

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the octanol price trend chart that the octanol price rose sharply in the first and middle of December, and then stabilized. The rise of octanol price leads to the rise of DOP raw material cost, which promotes the rise of DOP price. As the octanol price tends to stabilize, DOP’s rising momentum weakens, and DOP’s price loses support.

From the trend chart of phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the price of phthalic anhydride has been declining all the way in December, and the cost of phthalic anhydride, the raw material of DOP, has decreased, which has great pressure on the decline of DOP. In the first and middle of the month, due to the support of octanol price and the excessive growth of phthalic anhydride in the early stage, the pressure on the decline of DOP is limited. However, with the stabilization of octanol price, the decline of phthalic anhydride price highlights the downward pressure on DOP, and DOP will fall in the future The pressure is high.

Downstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the PVC price trend chart that the PVC price rose first and then fell in December, and the overall PVC market fell sharply, with a monthly decline of 8.54%. PVC market fell sharply, DOP demand fell, DOP downstream market weak, plasticizer DOP market bad increase.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business society, believes that DOP prices rose sharply in early December due to the support of octanol price. With the stabilization of octanol price, phthalic anhydride price continued to fall, DOP cost decreased, and DOP price lost support. In contrast, the PVC market fell in the last ten days, PVC prices plummeted, DOP demand was weak, downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm was low, and the downward pressure of DOP increased sharply. Generally speaking, the cost of DOP is decreasing, the demand of DOP is decreasing, the purchasing enthusiasm of DOP downstream customers is decreasing, the DOP market is falling in the future, the pressure of DOP falling is increasing, and the DOP price is expected to have a larger decline in the future.

Acetone market in East China fell by 30% in December

Acetone price trend in East China market in December

Acetone market fell mainly in December, and showed a broad decline trend towards the end of the month. According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, in the East China market, the daily price on December 1 was 8850 yuan / ton, while the daily price on December 30 was 6200 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 29.94%. On the morning of the 30th, Yangzhou market was opened down by 800 yuan / ton, and the offer was executed by 6200 yuan / ton. The follow-up of market trading atmosphere is limited, and the weather is getting colder near the end of the year. The mentality of cargo holders is obviously under pressure. After this wave of sharp decline, the terminal factory slightly inquires for orders, and the trading volume of replenishers is still insufficient.

Quotation of mainstream factories and market in December

The downstream market fell sharply. On the one hand, the market of bisphenol A fell a lot. After the epoxy resin downstream of bisphenol a lost its favorable policy support, the liquid resin showed a sharp decline, from nearly 30000 yuan / ton to 21500 yuan / ton at present. With the decline of market price, the operating rate of the industry gradually declined, which was a bad support for the raw material bisphenol A. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the market of bisphenol a dropped from 18860 yuan / ton to 13325 yuan / ton in December, down 29.88%, and there were few transactions near the end of the month, and the price of real order was lower. On the other hand, the operating rate of downstream MMA and MIBK plants has declined. Under the current situation, coupled with weather reasons, many factories have holidays ahead of time, and some factories have lower operating rate due to environmental protection reasons, resulting in the decline of purchasing demand of terminal factories and the further decline of market demand for raw materials.

Market price trend of bisphenol A in December

First, pure benzene showed a downward trend in December. After entering the middle of December, the market of pure benzene in Shandong turned around and went down. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the daily price of pure benzene in Shandong fell from 4566 yuan / ton on December 10 to 4204 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall decline of 7.93%. Second, the raw material propylene also showed a downward trend after entering the middle of December, from 8191.4 yuan / ton on the 10th to 7330 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall downward trend of 10.52%. Especially in the latter half of the year, the external supply continued to flow in, the supply increased significantly, the enterprise inventory was under pressure, the real order space increased, and the downstream delivery continued to decline, which made the market information chaotic Under the cold trading, the market kept falling. Both raw materials showed a downward trend, and the support for the downstream was obviously insufficient.

In the view of the business community, the market trading performance is cold, the operator’s mentality is under pressure, the offer of the goods holder keeps falling, and the offer of the downstream is also bottomless. Under the pressure of the goods holder, the two-day decline is more than 1000 yuan. As the new year’s Day holiday approaches, factory replenishment has not improved significantly. The business community expects that the acetone market will continue to maintain a weak operation, and the market just needs to follow up before the festival. However, the market offer is expected to stop falling and rise slightly. Currently, the mainstream market in East China is offering 6200 yuan / ton, and the short-term negotiation range in East China may be 6100-6300 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business news agency, the trend of sulfur price in East China this week was stable. The average price of sulfur production in the week was 1013.33 yuan / ton, up 101.33% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic sulfur market was stable as a whole. The inventory of refineries in various regions of China was low. The quotation of sulfur in the week was stable and small. The downstream factories and traders purchased on demand, and the shipment was smooth. The port’s cargo rights were concentrated. The shippers had a positive attitude and had no intention to ship at a low price. During the week, Sinopec’s price of solid sulfur in East China Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical Company increased by 30 yuan / ton, and that of liquid sulfur in Jinling Petrochemical Company increased by 20 yuan / ton, while that of other enterprises was temporarily stable; Sinopec’s price of solid and liquid sulfur in Shandong Province was stable, ranging from 1020 to 1050 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s price of solid sulfur in North China was 910-920 yuan / ton, while that of liquid sulfur was increased by 30 yuan / ton, ranging from 890 to 980 yuan / ton.

Downstream phosphate fertilizer market trading slightly flat, winter storage fertilizer pull up, the price is on the high side, the overall price trend stable operation. In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic market performance is stable. The main manufacturers in Shandong have stable start-up, stable prices and better downstream demand. It is expected that the sulfuric acid market will run smoothly in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

Future forecast: sulfur analysts of business society believe that the domestic sulfur market is running smoothly, the domestic refinery inventory remains low, the downstream demand is fair, the low price is hard to find, and the quotation is firm. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be stable.