According to the data monitoring of business news agency, this week (3.15-3.21), the market of methane chloride in Shandong fell. As of March 21, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was about 3800 yuan / ton, 2.65% lower than 3903 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; the average price of Trichloromethane was about 4083 yuan / ton, 4.52% lower than 4276 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

This week, there was little pressure on the spot inventory of methane chloride in Shandong. The starting load of some enterprises in Zhongyue and Dongyue was not high, and the starting load in Luxi was about 90%. The overall market supply was still moderately tight. However, on the one hand, the price of liquid chlorine dropped sharply. This week, the main outflow factory price of liquid chlorine from tank cars in Shandong fell from 1900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1500 yuan / ton at the end of the week, which was negative on the cost side Strong. On the other hand, the early high price makes the downstream procurement conflict, high price shipping is not smooth, the enterprise moderately adjust the quotation.

This week, international crude oil fell for several consecutive days, with a sharp drop on the 18th. The WTI contract in April once fell below $59 / barrel, which was negative for commodities on the cost side. Methanol market quotation also fell sharply. According to the monitoring of business news agency, methanol price was 2427 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2327 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an overall decline of 4.12%.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that, at present, the inventory pressure of methane chloride production enterprises in Shandong is not big, but the recent cost side is empty, and the price of methane chloride is expected to drop slightly in a short time.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation this week is 2250.00 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market temporarily stable, March 19 potassium chloride commodity index was 71.43.

2、 Market analysis

This week’s quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers is temporarily stable: Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride weekend ex factory quotation is 2100 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend distribution quotation is 2400 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In late March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.

On March 18, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell sharply, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $60.06/barrel, down 4.57 US dollars or 7.07%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the settlement price of the main contract at 63.03 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 4.97 U.S. dollars or 7.30%. WTI and Brent oil prices both fell by more than 7% on Thursday. At present, they have fallen for five consecutive trading days, mainly due to the slowdown of vaccination in Europe, which depresses the momentum of economic recovery, as well as the strong US dollar, the increase of US crude oil inventory, and the added disturbance of bad news such as tense relations between the US and Russia.

According to business news agency monitoring, oil prices have been falling for five consecutive trading days. At the macro level, due to the release of water from the Federal Reserve and central banks, inflation expectations continued to rise, US bond yields rose, and the prices of risky assets such as stock markets and commodities were suppressed. On Thursday, the market’s expectation of inflation intensified, and the US bond selling wave hit. The yield of 10-year US bonds rose above 1.7% for the first time in 14 months. The strength of the US dollar affected the decline of the stock index, and the oil price also fell sharply. WTI and Brent crude oil fell to two-week lows one after another. WTI closed below US $60, and WTI crude oil hit the biggest one-day decline in the second half of the year.

In addition, the pace of global economic recovery was once again dragged down by the epidemic, this time mainly from the European region. The European vaccination process was blocked, which led to the expectation of a slowdown in economic recovery and the suppression of oil prices. New cases in Europe continue to rise, especially in Germany and France, which have become the hardest hit areas. Some major economies restart restrictive measures. This is mainly due to the slowing down of vaccination. The market is generally worried about the side effects of AstraZeneca vaccine, and the vaccination plan is stagnant. According to reports, 17504 people were newly diagnosed with new coronavirus in Germany on the 18th, a new high in the past two months; Poland and Italy are also implementing strict blockade measures; French Prime Minister kastai also said that France is experiencing the third wave of epidemic. All kinds of signs show that the epidemic situation in Europe is not optimistic, which has seriously hindered the process of economic recovery.

The continuous recovery of crude oil stocks also brought pressure on oil prices. U.S. crude oil and refined oil stocks rose again. According to the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, U.S. crude oil stocks increased, while gasoline and distillate stocks also increased. U.S. crude oil stocks increased by 2.396 million barrels to 5.0079 billion barrels, and U.S. gasoline stocks increased by 472 million barrels to 2.32075 million barrels The increase in gasoline inventory was mainly affected by the recovery of us refinery operation rate and the lower than expected demand growth.

The supply side of oil prices is also at risk. Recently, the tense relationship between the United States and Russia has intensified the market’s worry, mainly because the US published a report on Russia’s intervention in the US general election, which has intensified the relationship between the two countries. At the same time, Russia recalled its ambassador to the US, and the US threatened to sanction Russia. The market is generally worried about Russia’s retaliation, because the main measure may be to increase crude oil production To crack down on American shale oil. Tensions between the two countries also put downward pressure on oil prices.

According to the business news agency, the recent continuous drop in oil prices and the concentrated release of bad news in the market may only be temporary in the short term, and the process of market recovery remains unchanged. The main risk factor of supply and demand lies in the relationship between the United States and Russia. The policy of controlling production in the later period of OPEC may also be restricted by this. In the near future, there may be many factors disturbing the oil price, and the amplitude will increase. In the long run, economic recovery is still good for oil prices.

Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the PX trend chart that the PX price trend is stable this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic PX ex factory price is 6700 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 21.82%. The PX external price trend is volatile this week, and the domestic PX market is highly dependent on foreign countries. The external price volatility has a certain positive impact on domestic prices.

In recent years, the domestic PX operation rate is more than 60%. Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical 600000 ton unit operates stably, Yangzi petrochemical unit operates stably, Pengzhou petrochemical unit operates stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operates normally, Jinling Petrochemical unit operates stably, Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, Qilu petrochemical unit operates stably, and Urumqi petrochemical unit starts at about 50% The supply of xylene is general, but there are many overhauls of overseas units, and the domestic price trend of p-xylene remains high. The recent international crude oil price trend is volatile, and the PX external price has little change. As of the 18th, the closing prices in Asia are 818-820 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 836-838 US dollars / ton CFR China. The recent operating rate of PX unit in Asia has little change. As a whole, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX in Asia is general, and the PX external closing price has little change, which is affected by the external factors The domestic market price of p-xylene was affected by the market price.

Recently, the oil price continued to decline, and the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract was at US $60.06/barrel, down by US $4.57 or 7.07%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the settlement price of the main contract at 63.03 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 4.97 U.S. dollars or 7.30%. WTI and Brent oil prices both fell by more than 7% on Thursday. At present, they have fallen for five consecutive trading days, mainly due to the slowdown of vaccination in Europe, which depresses the momentum of economic recovery, as well as the strong US dollar, the increase of US crude oil inventory, and the added disturbance of bad news such as tense relations between the US and Russia. In the short term, the slowdown of vaccination in Europe may be only temporary, and the process of market recovery remains unchanged. Crude oil prices fell sharply, which was bad for the domestic petrochemical market, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene was temporarily stable.

In the near future, the price trend of PTA Market in the downstream is temporarily stable, and the domestic PTA spot market is volatile. As of the 19th, the average price of PTA market is 4450-4500 yuan / ton, and the price trend is stable this week. PTA supply continues to be at a high level. Due to limited maintenance efforts, the operation rate of domestic PTA plant is about 79%. The terminal market returned to work in an orderly manner after the festival. As of March 18, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas had increased to more than 84%. The downstream market was cautious and there were many inquiries, but the “order” was still hesitant, and the orders had not significantly improved. The price trend of downstream PTA is stable, which has a certain positive support for the price of upstream PX market, and the price trend of PX market is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business news agency, believes that the current cost side is lower, and the short-term crude oil price may decline, but the downstream PTA product maintenance device may increase, and it is expected that the market price of p-xylene may remain stable in the later period.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: curve of P value of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises as of March 16 was 11966.67 yuan / ton, up 2.28% compared with the price of last Monday (March 8), 9.79% higher than that on February 16, and 0.28% year-on-year in three months

Recently, the market of epichlorohydrin is not strong, and the offer is stable. Recently, propylene raw materials are in upward trend, with high cost pressure. The stockholders have been up and offer, and the market is lower and lower, but the downstream follow-up is insufficient. The market just needs small single investment, supply-demand game and market arrangement upward.

Upstream propylene, March 16, the propylene market price in Shandong region was roughly stable. According to the price map of business agency, affected by upstream and downstream, propylene prices rose repeatedly in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. At the beginning of the month, it was stable. On the 4th, the price began to decline, and the price rose generally on the 8th. The price rose 150-250 yuan / ton in two days. After that, the price was generally stable. On the 12th day, the price rose by about 50 yuan / ton again, and the price continued to rise 50 yuan / ton on the 15th. Today, the price is stable The current market transaction is between 8500-8650 yuan / ton, with the mainstream price of about 8550 yuan / ton.

Downstream epoxy resin, on March 16, the liquid epoxy resin in East China negotiated high-level finishing and operation, and the main negotiation offer remained at 31500-32000 yuan / ton, and the factory mainly delivered orders.

3、 Post market forecast

According to the epichlorohydrin analyst of business society, the raw material price is high in the near future, the downstream just needs to receive the bill mainly, the buying enthusiasm is general, the market continues to play games, but under the support of the strong cost side, it is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market will be held up, and more attention should be paid to the market interest consumption guidance.

The upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid prices remained stable at a high level, while the aluminum fluoride market was short of positive news stimulation, and the overall price remained stable. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 9033 yuan / ton on March 16, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

The price of raw material fluorite is 2761.11 yuan / ton, and the price trend of fluorite remains high. Recently, some fluorite plants in China are generally started, and some mines and flotation plants in the plant are shut down. The supply of fluorite in the plant is tight. However, the downstream market is stable in the near future, and the rise of fluorite price is limited. Due to the normal supply on the floor, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly. As of the 15th, the quotation of hydrofluoric acid market was 10611.11 yuan / ton. In the near future, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market was mainly stable. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid was less than 60%. The enterprises reflected that the supply of hydrofluoric acid spot goods on the floor was normal, the market of goods on the floor was general recently, and the ex factory price of some enterprises was stable.

At present, the aluminum fluoride industry as a whole has sufficient cash, and the inventory of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants remains high, so the demand for aluminum fluoride bidding procurement is general. However, the willingness to support the price of aluminum fluoride is obvious, and the price of aluminum fluoride is stable.

Aluminum fluoride industry analysts of business news agency believe that: the prices of upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid remain stable at a high level, and the aluminum fluoride market lacks the stimulation of good news. It is expected that the domestic aluminum fluoride market prices will continue to consolidate.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (March 15): 402.50 yuan / ton

On March 15, the price of sulfuric acid Market in Shandong Province rose, up 5.00 yuan / ton, or 1.26% compared with the quotation on March 12. From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market has been rising step by step in the near future, and the cost support is better. And downstream monoammonium phosphate, diammonium, bromine market is also rising, on sulfuric acid has a positive impact.

Recently, the price of sulfuric acid Market in Shandong Province has risen slightly, with the quotation of about 410 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of March 12, the comprehensive price of PC market was 26166.67 yuan / ton. This week, the negotiation atmosphere of PC market was flat, and the price dropped slightly. Compared with the same period last week, the price dropped by 0.38%. At present, the PC market is fluctuating, the upstream runs smoothly, the cost is still supported, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the shipment is slow.

This week, the domestic PC market fell slightly. Due to the excessive increase after the festival, it brought huge pressure to the downstream cost side. At present, the negotiation atmosphere is cold, the shipment is slow, and the inventory continues to be high. In the short term, it is mainly to digest and sort out the inventory. According to the data of the business society, the price of PC after the festival went from 19833.33 yuan / ton to 25800.00 yuan / ton, with an increase of 30.08%, a record in the past two years The highest price level, downstream pressure operation, transaction atmosphere cautious, which led to PC Inventory continued high, digestion difficulties, short-term PC market narrow adjustment. Since 2021, the upstream bisphenol A has seen a huge growth and a record high. In March, the PC and bisphenol a market have fallen one after another. At present, the upstream bisphenol a market is declining, the market is weakening, the shipping pressure is increasing, and the overall mentality is confused.

The upstream bisphenol A in East China has a flat trading volume, with a reference price of 24600-24700 yuan / ton. At present, the shipment is smooth and the operating rate is normal. Bisphenol a commodity index: on March 11, the bisphenol a commodity index was 233.05, unchanged from yesterday, down 1.60% from the highest point 236.83 (2021-03-09) in the cycle, and up 223.28% from the lowest point 72.09 on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to from March 1, 2020 to now)

The prices of BPA and PC are basically the same. There is a certain pressure on the cost of PC. the downstream gradually digests and adjusts in a narrow range. The following is the price trend comparison chart of BPA and PC

Rubber and plastic index: on March 11, the rubber and plastic index was 826 points, flat with yesterday, down 22.08% from 1060 points (March 14, 2012), the highest point in the cycle, and up 56.44% from 528 points, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

PC analysts of business news agency believe that: due to the excessive increase of PC after the festival and the high price, it brings cost pressure to the downstream, the transaction atmosphere is flat, and the shipment is slow. In the short term, PC mainly digests inventory, with a narrow consolidation stage. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China continued to fall in March. As of the 11th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7000 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the month, the price was 7925 yuan / ton, down 11.67%, up 26.98% year on year. Recently, the price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to fall, the spot supply was normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride declined.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride has been declining. The market price of phthalic anhydride is generally in good condition. The downstream demand has been reduced in the near future. The price trend of o-benzene has come down. The plasticizer market has declined. The negative factors have led to the market price of phthalic anhydride falling. Domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers started at a low level, and the operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the site was about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply was sufficient, and the price of phthalic anhydride on the site was lower. The downstream plasticizer industry market declined, and the actual transaction situation was general. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is declining, with limited high-end transactions in the market. The mainstream of neighboring France source negotiation in East China is 6900-7100 yuan / ton, and naphthalene method source negotiation is 6800-6900 yuan / ton. The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6800-7000 yuan / ton. The market outlook of phthalic anhydride still exists, and the downstream procurement is poor. The market trend of downstream DOP in March is general, which does not give any guidance to the phthalic anhydride market To support good, affected phthalic anhydride market prices continued to decline.

In recent years, the domestic price of o-benzene has dropped sharply, and the market price has dropped to 6200 yuan / ton. The domestic price of o-benzene has fallen, which is a big negative effect on the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import price of o-benzene in the port area has dropped, and the import price of o-benzene in the port area has increased. In recent years, the inventory of o-benzene in the port has increased, and the external quotation of o-benzene has been adjusted, and the actual transaction price has increased The price trend of o-benzene declined, the price of raw material o-benzene fell, which was bad for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, and the market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply in March.

In March, the market price of the downstream DOP of phthalic anhydride declined slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic DOP price was 13675 yuan / ton as of the 11th, and the price fell by 0.91% in March. The low start-up of the equipment of the DOP enterprises on the site was temporarily stable, the price of PVC was weak, and the demand of the downstream customers was mainly just demand, while the demand of the downstream tourists was general. The price of plasticizers is based on the real-time price. The overall DOP price is about 13600-14000 yuan / ton. The domestic demand for phthalic anhydride is not improved, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is lower.

Generally speaking, the crude oil price trend is strong in the near future, but the downward pressure of downstream plasticizer industry is increasing, the DOP price is slightly lower, and the price of o-benzene has a downward trend. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will continue to decline slightly in the later period.

In February, the market of dimethyl ether was weak. In March, dimethyl ether market finally ushered in a rebound. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3043.33 yuan / ton on March 4 and 3153.33 yuan / ton on March 9, with an increase of 3.61% and a decrease of 8.51% compared with February 1. As of March 9, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether are as follows:

Region specification Date Quotation

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Shandong area: ≥ 99.0% March 9 3250 yuan / ton

The mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Hebei area: ≥ 99.0% on March 9 to 3300 yuan / ton

Mass fraction of dimethyl ether in Henan Province: ≥ 99.0% March 9 3080-3130 yuan / ton

Since February, the dimethyl ether Market has been in a downward trend. Due to insufficient downstream demand, the dimethyl ether Market is weak and hard to find good. In March, the good news came, and the dimethyl ether market finally ushered in a rebound. The first is the cost of methanol: the methanol market began to rise continuously in February, but due to the small increase in the early stage, the benefits to dimethyl ether were limited. On March 9, the offer price of methanol market in southern Shandong increased by 30 yuan / ton to 2380-2400 yuan / ton for cash withdrawal, while the negotiation price of methanol market in central Shandong increased by 50-60 yuan / ton for cash withdrawal at 2260-2300 yuan / ton. The mainstream transaction price of Linfen in Shanxi Province increased by 60-90 yuan / ton to 2060-2100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream transaction price of Jincheng increased by 100 yuan / ton to 2180 yuan / ton. The methanol market in the two lakes region was partially offered higher. The main enterprises in Hubei have not offered new prices, while other enterprises have raised their offers. The actual ex factory reference is 2400-2450 yuan / ton ex factory cash. The rising cost of methanol brings obvious support to dimethyl ether.

Secondly, the civil LPG market, which has been boosted by the recent rise of international crude oil, has stopped falling and gone up, and the price difference between gas and ether has gradually widened, which has brought certain benefits to the market. Dimethyl ether Market favorable factors hit, the cost of methanol and liquefied gas both up, manufacturers have a strong mentality, prices are actively rising. Take Henan xinlianxin as an example. On March 5, xinlianxin dimethyl ether was quoted at 3000 yuan / ton, and on March 10, xinlianxin dimethyl ether was quoted at 3130 yuan / ton, up 130 yuan / ton in just a few days. Under the mentality of buying up in the lower reaches, the market entry is more positive, which is obviously better than that in the earlier stage. The overall situation of manufacturers’ shipment is smooth, and the prices in various regions are widely pushed up.

On the whole, the main reason for the positive market is the rising cost of methanol, followed by the rise of LPG for civil use, which has also brought obvious boost to the market. At present, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is relatively positive, and the mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong. However, as the weather gradually stabilizes, the downstream demand is limited, and the negative market factors still exist. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market may rise in shock in the short term, with limited range.