1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: p-value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

Epichlorohydrin market prices rose this week. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of December 27, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 12666.67 yuan / ton, up 4.11% compared with the beginning of the week, and down 3.06% compared with November 27.

Recently, some factories have been shut down for maintenance. The overall operating rate of the market is not high, and the dealers support the market. However, the follow-up of downstream demand is insufficient, the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, the replenishment is just needed, and the market transaction atmosphere is not warm. On December 25, the mainstream price of epichlorohydrin in Shandong was around 11900-12000 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of epichlorohydrin of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of the merchants depends on the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.)

Enterprise market price specification date

Shandong rongnuo Chemical Sales Co., Ltd. ﹣ 12400 yuan / ton ﹣ premium products; 99.9% min ﹣ 2020-12-25

Aite (Shandong) new materials Co., Ltd.? 12500 yuan / ton,? High quality products; 99.9% min? 2020-12-24

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. ﹣ 12500 yuan / ton ﹣ GB 99.9 ﹣ 2020-12-24

Jinan Mingyu Chemical Co., Ltd. ﹣ 12500 yuan / ton ﹣ GB 99.9 ﹣ 2020-12-24

Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. > 13000 yuan / ton; 99.9% min 2020-12-22

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. ﹣ 12500 yuan / ton ﹣ high quality products; 99.9% min ﹣ 2020-12-21

Zibo tengshuo economic and Trade Co., Ltd.? 12300 yuan / ton? Excellent products; 99.9% min? 2020-12-21

Upstream propylene, December 25, Shandong propylene market prices generally downward. According to the price chart of the business community, propylene prices rose continuously in late November, with an increase of over 12%. From the end of the month to the beginning of the month, the price remained stable again. On the 4th, the price began to rise comprehensively. From the 3rd to the 8th, the price rose about 450 yuan / ton, up 5.90%. On the 9th, the price remained stable. On the 10th, some enterprises made up for the price rise, and some enterprises fell slightly. On the 11th, the price began to decline for the second time, and continued to decline on weekends. On the 14th, the price dropped 200-250 yuan / ton On the 21st, the overall price rose by about 50 yuan / ton and then remained stable. On the 24th, the price fell individually. Today, the price generally declined by 50-100 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction is between 7800-8150 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 7800-7850 yuan / ton. Now the factory stock is general, the shipment is a little cold.

On December 25, the market of downstream epoxy resin was in a weak state. At present, the cost pressure is slowing down, the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry and purchase is not high, the factory delivery is not smooth, and some prices are down.

3、 Future forecast

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of business news agency, the current market supply is limited, which has certain support for the price. However, the price of raw material propylene is reduced, the cost support is weakened, and the downstream enthusiasm is insufficient. The market continues to play games. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may focus on the range arrangement, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

According to statistics, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride will decline in 2020. The price at the beginning of the year is 6300 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the year is 5750 yuan / ton. In 2020, the price of phthalic anhydride will drop by 8.73% in the whole year. The highest price of the whole year will appear on November 25, with the highest price of 7537.5 yuan / ton. The lowest price of the whole year will appear on April 5, with the lowest price at the end of the year of 4300 yuan / ton, with the maximum amplitude of 75.29% The price trend can be roughly divided into three stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the beginning of April, when the price of phthalic anhydride falls sharply; the second stage is from early April to late November, when the market price of phthalic anhydride rebounds and rises; the third stage is from the end of November to the end of the year, when the market price of phthalic anhydride rises and falls.

In the first stage, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride dropped sharply from 6300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 4300 yuan / ton at the beginning of April, a drop of 31.75%. The domestic phthalic anhydride market fell sharply. First, the operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride market remained at a high level of about 70%, downstream factories maintained just need to purchase, factory inventory pressure continued, high-end transactions were blocked, and the wait-and-see mentality was strong. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant operated stably, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient, the delivery situation was not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride kept falling. Second, the price of upstream raw material o-benzene has been declining. The domestic market price of o-benzene has dropped from 6200 yuan / ton to 3800 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 38.71%. In addition, the spot supply of o-benzene is sufficient during this period, and the port inventory has been above 20000 tons. The price of upstream raw material o-benzene has dropped sharply. The market price of phthalic anhydride has lost cost support and the market price of phthalic anhydride has declined. Third, due to the poor demand of downstream plasticizer industry, the market price of phthalic anhydride is not good, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is greatly reduced.

The second stage is from early April to late November when the market price of phthalic anhydride rebounds. The price in early April was 4300 yuan / ton, up to 7537.5 yuan / ton in late November, up by 75.29%. During this period, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride remained volatile from early April to October. From October to late November, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose rapidly. During this period, some manufacturers stopped their plants, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride dropped to about 60%, the spot supply decreased, some manufacturers’ orders increased, there was no overstock in the market, and the market price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply. In addition, the market price of upstream raw material o-benzene has risen recently, the port o-benzene is sold well, the inventory has been exhausted, there are many o-benzene maintenance devices in the field, the spot supply of o-benzene is very tight, and the price of phthalic anhydride is affected by the cost support. The downstream starts generally, mainly purchases on demand, and has a strong wait-and-see mentality. The maintenance of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has increased, and the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the yard has improved. Recently, the domestic plasticizer market has risen sharply, the DOP market price has risen sharply, and the plasticizer industry has risen sharply. Driven by the sharp rise in the downstream market price, the domestic phthalic anhydride market price has skyrocketed.

The third stage is from the end of November to the end of the year, when the market price of phthalic anhydride rises and falls. The market price of phthalic anhydride dropped by 23.71% from 7537.5 yuan / ton at the end of November to 5750 yuan / ton at the end of the year. At this stage, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride dropped rapidly, and the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China continued to decline. The downstream factories maintained just purchasing, the factory inventory pressure increased, and the high-end transaction was blocked. Recently, the factory inventory increased, and the market price of phthalic anhydride declined. In East China, the mainstream price of neighboring France is 5700-5900 yuan / ton, and in naphthalene method is 5500-5700 yuan / ton; in North China, the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market is 5700-5900 yuan / ton, most of the manufacturers in the market price callback, the downstream start-up is not high, the demand procurement is main, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the market is sufficient, and the downstream demand of phthalic anhydride is low The demand for phthalic anhydride decreased, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to decline. In addition, the price of upstream phthalic acid continued to decline, the maintenance device of phthalic acid continued to restart, the spot supply increased, and the price of phthalic acid dropped. As a result, the phthalic anhydride market lost cost support and the price of phthalic anhydride declined. The downstream DOP market price remained high, the downstream demand was normal, the customer purchasing enthusiasm was general, the DOP high-end transaction was blocked, the DOP market mainstream transaction price remained high, but the phthalic anhydride market price continued to fall due to the poor spot delivery situation, so the phthalic anhydride market price fell rapidly.

On the whole, the market trend of phthalic anhydride in China will fall by 8.73% in 2020. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers reflect that phthalic anhydride still has losses and profits will decline in 2020. The price trend of phthalic anhydride upstream in 2020 is as follows:

As can be seen from the upstream trend chart of o-benzene, the price trend of o-benzene is similar to that of phthalic anhydride market. However, in 2020, the impact of NEFA phthalic anhydride on o-phthalic anhydride will be greater, the market of o-phthalic anhydride will be depressed, and the market price of phthalic anhydride will decline.

The market price trend of phthalic anhydride downstream DOP is as follows:

In 2020, the price of downstream DOP will rise sharply, with an annual increase of 43.12%. The good market situation of downstream plasticizer industry is a major positive impact on the phthalic anhydride industry, and the market price of phthalic anhydride will not decline due to this impact.

From the price trend chart of domestic phthalic anhydride in recent four years, it can be seen that the high price of phthalic anhydride market generally appears in the fourth quarter, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market declines in the second and third quarters. The market demand of phthalic anhydride market is general in 2020, and the market has declined. However, phthalic anhydride manufacturers report more losses in the first and third quarters of 2020, and it is expected that the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride will decline significantly in 2021, which is less likely for the plasticizer industry Due to the recovery of the real estate market, the demand may rise, so the market price of phthalic anhydride may rise in 2021. It is estimated that the highest price of phthalic anhydride market in 2021 may be in the fourth quarter, with the highest price of about 7500 yuan / ton, and the lowest price may be in the second quarter, with the lowest price of about 4500 yuan / ton.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business associations, the domestic bromine market has been rising steadily in recent years. As of December 22, the average price of bromine in Shandong was about 33277 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.22% compared with the beginning of the month, and an overall increase of 7.93% over the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

Recently, affected by the cold weather in northern China, many bromine manufacturers have stopped, and the spot supply in the market continues to decline. In addition, Weifang district is approaching the parking period, the market supply is not expected to be sufficient, the overall inventory in the industry is low, and the enterprise’s price intention is good, while the downstream market is weak, the overall demand is soft, the conflict with high bromine price is obvious, and the game between supply and demand in the industry is obvious Mainstream bromine enterprises offer about 33000-34000 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the domestic sulfur market is stable and firm, and there is no low-cost shipping intention of the shippers. At present, the downstream demand is stable, the transaction is good, and the procurement is mainly based on demand. The future market pays attention to the follow-up of the downstream, which is about 1013 yuan / ton. The price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers is temporarily stable, and the inventory of manufacturers is small, and the downstream is active in purchasing sulfuric acid, which is about 437 yuan / ton. The price of caustic soda is weak and stable OK, the purchasing demand of downstream market is general, and there is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. At present, it is about 485 yuan / ton. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda consolidation will be weak. The main downstream flame retardant market of bromine is running smoothly, and the industry starts to operate smoothly. The demand for bromine is general, and the overall intention of receiving goods is insufficient, which conflicts with the high price of bromine.

3、 Future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of the business society, the enterprises in Weifang, the main bromine production area in China, have basically entered the shutdown period and can only recover after passing the acceptance inspection on February 19, 2021. The supply side of the market is difficult to recover in a short time, while the performance of the downstream market is flat, the support of the demand side is insufficient, and the game between supply and demand is seesaw. It is expected that bromine will continue to operate stably in a short period of time.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic soda ash market is weak. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1446 yuan / ton, while that at the weekend was 1400 yuan / ton. The price fell by 3.18%, 10.26% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of light soda ash on December 20 was 71.79, unchanged with yesterday, down 39.09% from the highest point of 117.86 (2017-11-21) and 13.68% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the atmosphere of domestic soda ash market is light, and downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The price of soda ash in Central China is weak. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1200-1300 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general. The overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable in the short term. The price of soda ash in North China is weak. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1400-1500 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general. The overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable in the short term.

Raw materials: this week, the domestic crude salt trading atmosphere is relatively stable, more continuation of the early price trend. The supply of well and mineral salt manufacturers is stable, the lake salt market continues to operate stably, and the supply is stable; the purchase of sea salt market declines slightly.

Demand: glass prices have risen in recent weeks. In Shahe of North China, the inventory of production enterprises is low, the overall trend of the spot market is relatively stable, and the market transaction price has also increased by a certain extent, with an increase of 0.5-0.8 yuan / m2. The market demand in East China is good, the inventory of production enterprises is low, the number of glass imported from other ports in East China decreases, and the price of local enterprises rises by 0.7-2.2 yuan / m2. In South China, manufacturers’ prices rose by 1-2 yuan / m2. Traders and processing enterprises purchased on demand, and glass demand remained at a normal level. The overall trend of glass spot market in Central China is good, and the prices of manufacturers have increased by about 1.5 yuan / m2. The overall trend of the spot market of glass in Southwest China is general, and the price of manufacturers has not been raised much, with an increase of about 0.7 yuan / m2. In Northeast China, local demand is weakening. At present, manufacturers are exporting to North China and East China, and the quotation is slightly increased, with an increase of 0.5-0.8 yuan / m2. The overall trend of glass spot market in Northwest China is general, and the price of manufacturers has increased slightly, with an increase of 0.5-0.8 yuan / m2.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 50th week of 2020 (12.14-12.18), there are 1 commodity rising, 3 falling and 1 commodity falling to 0. The main commodities that rose were calcium carbide (5.91%), light soda ash (- 3.18%), hydrochloric acid (- 0.81%) and PVC (- 0.44%). This week, all rose or fell 0.3%.

Business agency analysts believe that: soda ash market performance is weak, manufacturers’ prices have been close to the cost line, some manufacturers have reached the cost line. When the downstream manufacturers of glass have increased but need to purchase, traders hold a wait-and-see attitude, market prices follow the market. According to the comprehensive forecast, the weak operation of domestic soda ash market in the short term is given priority to.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of December 18, the comprehensive price of PC market was 21666.67 yuan / ton. This week, the PC market was in a weak position. The focus of negotiation moved down, the purchasing atmosphere was cold, and most manufacturers lowered their prices, which dropped by 5.80% compared with the beginning of December. The upstream raw material support was insufficient, and the PC market was expected to continue to be weak.

This week, the domestic PC market transaction atmosphere is cold, the price continues to be weak, manufacturers cut prices one after another, downstream cautious wait-and-see, slow shipment, the overall market is in a flat, just need to order, the spot supply side is normal, the enterprise operating rate is normal, the inventory side is normal, the current delivery is smooth, the good factors are insufficient, the raw material market is weak, the support for PC cost side is insufficient, PC market is weak The market as a whole is pessimistic, and the willingness to reduce prices is increasing.

The upstream bisphenol a market is in a weak position. The price reference is 17700-17800 yuan / ton. The actual orders are actually discussed. The delivery is slow. The contract users just need to purchase. The number of new orders is scarce. The overall market is weak. The downstream market is mainly wait-and-see. The transaction atmosphere is cold and stable in the short term.

On December 17, the rubber and plastic index was 736 points, down 3 points compared with yesterday, 30.57% lower than 1060 point (2012-03-14), and 39.39% higher than 528 point, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

PC analysts believe that: PC is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term, mainly narrow shock finishing. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, the plasticizer DOP price fell first and then rose in December. As of December 16, the average price of DOP was 10266.67 yuan / ton, which was 5.12% higher than that at the beginning of the month. The DOP price is affected by the rise of raw material price, showing a sharp rise.

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the octanol price trend chart that the octanol price rose sharply after falling in December. The overall octanol market rose sharply in December, with DOP cost rising and DOP rising momentum being greater.

Downstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the PVC price trend chart that PVC prices fluctuated and stabilized after a sharp rise in December. PVC price rise, DOP demand warming, DOP rise support larger, plasticizer DOP market is good.

Market review and future expectation

Business agency DOP data analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that downstream, PVC market rose in December, DOP demand rose, DOP market is good. In terms of raw materials, the decline of phthalic anhydride price offset the good support of PVC rise; however, with the sudden rise of octanol price, it became the last straw to crush DOP, and DOP price rose sharply. In the future, DOP raw material octanol price rises, phthalic anhydride price falls, DOP cost is basically stable, DOP rise support is insufficient, PVC market is stable, DOP rising momentum is insufficient, it is expected that DOP market will be strong and stable.

After the second week of December, the average price of domestic metal silicon (441) market basically kept stable.

According to the data of business agency, on December 15, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 14283.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.12% compared with the average market price of 14300 yuan / ton last Friday (12.4); compared with the average market price of 13925 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (12.1), the average market price was 10491.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 36.14%; compared with the average market price of (1.1) at the beginning of the year, 11833.33 yuan / ton 70%.

On the 15th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 13700-13900 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13900-14100 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 14000-14100 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 15000-15200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 14300-14500 yuan / ton, and that in Huangpu port is 14300-14400 yuan / ton 。

Social inventory moves down, both quantity and price rise in the early stage

Due to the influence of power rationing, the operating rate of silicon metal manufacturers in Yunnan Province has moved down, reducing part of their production capacity. In addition, the external purchasing volume increased in the early stage, the export market turned better, the market trading was vigorous, and the social inventory moved down. The volume and price rose in November.

At present, the export side purchase volume tends to be flat, the long short game is intensified, and the price tends to be stable.

Future forecast

The rise of downstream price will benefit the price of raw materials to a certain extent; superimposed on the short-term spot price, it is expected that the metal silicon price will be stable in the near future.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber decreased slightly during the week (12.7-12.11), with the price at 11670.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 11390.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 2.40% as a whole.

This week (12.7-12.11), the ex factory price of domestic cis-1,4-butadiene rubber and petrochemical manufacturers was reduced by 200 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of December 11, the ex warehouse price of Daqing cis-1,3-butadiene of Northeast Sales Company of CNPC was implemented at 11300 yuan / ton; the price of cis-1,3-butadiene rubber of Sinopec North China sales company was stable, Qilu Shunding was quoted as 11300 yuan / T, and Huabei warehouse raised the price; Yanshan Shunding company offered 11220 yuan / T, and Huabei warehouse raised the price.

The supply side of Shunding market is basically stable. On the one hand, the operating rate of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China increased slightly this week. According to the business association, the start-up load of Yanshan gaoshunding has returned to normal recently, while Wanda Shunding plant has continued to shut down. On the other hand, the traffic in Northeast China gradually recovered after the snow, and the supply of Shunding in Daqing was normal, and the supply of domestic Shunding market was restored this week.

Raw material prices fell this week, the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber support weakened. As of December 11, the butadiene price was 9490 yuan / ton, down 3.71% from 9856 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, according to the business agency.

On the demand side, at present, the downstream tire operating rate continues to maintain above 70%, and the tire raw material storage period is around 20 days, which still has strong support for BR.

Aftermarket forecast: business agency analysts believe that at present, the price of raw material butadiene falls, but the downstream demand has certain support, and it is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

Domestic cyclohexanone market rose this week after finishing. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 6700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 6816 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price increased by 1.74% during the week, increased by 16.03% month on month, and decreased by 5.1% year-on-year.

Within the week, Sinopec listed its pure benzene twice, increasing 300 yuan / ton to 4600 yuan / ton. Under the support of cost, the offer of cyclohexanone factory was raised to 7200 yuan / ton. Although the downstream caprolactam Sinopec was raised by 300 yuan to 11500 yuan / ton, the enthusiasm of external cyclohexanone extraction was not so positive, the solvent was purchased on demand, the delivery rate of cyclohexanone slowed down, the market supply was abundant, and the general transaction atmosphere was general.

Price summary of cyclohexanone by Region:

Region, price

7450-7550 yuan / ton in East China

In South China, 7450-7550 yuan / ton is delivered in cash

7300-7400 yuan / ton in Shandong Province

From the perspective of supply and demand, the short-term commercial volume of cyclohexanone is stable, the downstream chemical fiber and solvent market demand is general, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is relatively strong. Coupled with the recent restart of Shandong Haili and Zhejiang Juhua plans, the spot supply of caprolactam may be alleviated to a certain extent, and the cost support is weak. Business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the short-term market of cyclohexanone is mainly sorted out.

During the week (11.30-12.4), the price of nitrile rubber remained high. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of nitrile rubber on November 30 was 19233.33 yuan / ton, and on December 4, it was 19300.00 yuan / ton. The price continued to maintain a high level with a slight increase of 0.35%.

First of all, the ex factory price of NBR in China is basically stable. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of December 4, the price of NBR in Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was stable: at present, the price of NBR in n41e was 17300 yuan / ton; in 3305e, it was 17900 yuan / ton; in 3308e, it was 18800 yuan / ton; in Ningbo shunze, the ex factory price of NBR was stable, at present, the NBR of 3355 factory was 18600 yuan / ton.

Secondly, the price of raw materials remains high, and the cost side is still strongly supported. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of December 4, the butadiene price was 9856 yuan / ton; as of December 4, the ex factory price of acrylonitrile Shanghai Secco was 13000 yuan / ton. The prices of raw materials are in the high stage.

Finally, the epidemic situation in foreign countries is becoming more and more serious. The number of confirmed cases and deaths continues to increase. The demand for medical nitrile rubber latex gloves is still strong, resulting in the tight supply of nitrile rubber, which forms a strong support for the whole nitrile market.

Aftermarket forecast: NBR analysts believe that the high price of raw materials, coupled with strong downstream demand, NBR prices will continue to remain high in the short term.