On March 18, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell sharply, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $60.06/barrel, down 4.57 US dollars or 7.07%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the settlement price of the main contract at 63.03 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 4.97 U.S. dollars or 7.30%. WTI and Brent oil prices both fell by more than 7% on Thursday. At present, they have fallen for five consecutive trading days, mainly due to the slowdown of vaccination in Europe, which depresses the momentum of economic recovery, as well as the strong US dollar, the increase of US crude oil inventory, and the added disturbance of bad news such as tense relations between the US and Russia.

According to business news agency monitoring, oil prices have been falling for five consecutive trading days. At the macro level, due to the release of water from the Federal Reserve and central banks, inflation expectations continued to rise, US bond yields rose, and the prices of risky assets such as stock markets and commodities were suppressed. On Thursday, the market’s expectation of inflation intensified, and the US bond selling wave hit. The yield of 10-year US bonds rose above 1.7% for the first time in 14 months. The strength of the US dollar affected the decline of the stock index, and the oil price also fell sharply. WTI and Brent crude oil fell to two-week lows one after another. WTI closed below US $60, and WTI crude oil hit the biggest one-day decline in the second half of the year.

In addition, the pace of global economic recovery was once again dragged down by the epidemic, this time mainly from the European region. The European vaccination process was blocked, which led to the expectation of a slowdown in economic recovery and the suppression of oil prices. New cases in Europe continue to rise, especially in Germany and France, which have become the hardest hit areas. Some major economies restart restrictive measures. This is mainly due to the slowing down of vaccination. The market is generally worried about the side effects of AstraZeneca vaccine, and the vaccination plan is stagnant. According to reports, 17504 people were newly diagnosed with new coronavirus in Germany on the 18th, a new high in the past two months; Poland and Italy are also implementing strict blockade measures; French Prime Minister kastai also said that France is experiencing the third wave of epidemic. All kinds of signs show that the epidemic situation in Europe is not optimistic, which has seriously hindered the process of economic recovery.

The continuous recovery of crude oil stocks also brought pressure on oil prices. U.S. crude oil and refined oil stocks rose again. According to the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, U.S. crude oil stocks increased, while gasoline and distillate stocks also increased. U.S. crude oil stocks increased by 2.396 million barrels to 5.0079 billion barrels, and U.S. gasoline stocks increased by 472 million barrels to 2.32075 million barrels The increase in gasoline inventory was mainly affected by the recovery of us refinery operation rate and the lower than expected demand growth.

The supply side of oil prices is also at risk. Recently, the tense relationship between the United States and Russia has intensified the market’s worry, mainly because the US published a report on Russia’s intervention in the US general election, which has intensified the relationship between the two countries. At the same time, Russia recalled its ambassador to the US, and the US threatened to sanction Russia. The market is generally worried about Russia’s retaliation, because the main measure may be to increase crude oil production To crack down on American shale oil. Tensions between the two countries also put downward pressure on oil prices.

According to the business news agency, the recent continuous drop in oil prices and the concentrated release of bad news in the market may only be temporary in the short term, and the process of market recovery remains unchanged. The main risk factor of supply and demand lies in the relationship between the United States and Russia. The policy of controlling production in the later period of OPEC may also be restricted by this. In the near future, there may be many factors disturbing the oil price, and the amplitude will increase. In the long run, economic recovery is still good for oil prices.