1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on October 28, the average p value of oil-based ethylene glycol was 5970 yuan / ton, down 690 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle.

On October 27, the spot price in East China market was flat, with an average price of 6080 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton from the beginning of this month, a decrease of 3.49%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of inventory, as of October 25, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 596400 tons, an increase of 81400 tons, an increase of 15.81%, and 31400 tons, an increase of 5.56%, compared with last Thursday. Ethylene glycol continues to be in low inventory.

Unit: a 400000 ton syngas MEG unit in Inner Mongolia has restarted a line, which was previously shut down for maintenance near August 12; A 40000 ton MEG unit in Jiangsu has been shut down and is expected to be shut down for 8 days..

The ethylene glycol market rose first and then fell following the trend of coal this month, and one of the important reasons is that the policy guides the market direction. In the early stage, the shortage of coal resources, coupled with the fluctuation of market mentality caused by “double control”, the coal price rose, and the ethylene glycol price rose with the trend, gradually divorced from the fundamentals. In the later stage, since the coal price was suppressed, the price of ethylene glycol plunged, and the price gradually returned to rationality. In terms of fundamentals, the operating rate of ethylene glycol continues to fluctuate at a low level. Although the port inventory is still low, it rises slightly and is expected to increase further in early November. The unloading situation at East China port improved slightly, and some goods from South China Re flowed to East China market. As the profit margin of ethylene glycol shrinks, it is imperative to convert part of the cogeneration unit to ethylene oxide. At present, the demand side is still weak as a whole, but the production restriction tends to be relaxed. Some polyester units are restarted, and the supply and demand structure will be roughly balanced.

3、 Forecast: weak shock operation.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of October 27, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 24166 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 21100 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 3066 yuan / ton, or 14.53%.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of October 27, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 13333 yuan / ton, which was 633 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.99% compared with October 1 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 12700 yuan / ton).

At present, the linkage production of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate is common in domestic factories. It takes propylene oxide as the main production raw material to produce dimethyl carbonate by transesterification, and propylene glycol is also produced at the same time. Therefore, there is a certain correlation between the market situation of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate. In October, the domestic market prices of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate increased significantly, and the main factors supporting the sharp rise in product prices came from the following two aspects:

In terms of supply, in October, after the National Day holiday, propylene glycol / dimethyl carbonate units in Shandong, Anhui and other regions have shutdown plans to varying degrees. In the short term, the market supply will continue to be tight. Therefore, although the demand after the festival has not increased widely, the factory has a strong willingness to support the price, and the first day of construction after the festival (August), The domestic propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate market opened a sharp rise. On the 9th, the average price of domestic propylene glycol rose to 22600 yuan / ton, up 7.11% in a single day after the festival, and the average price of domestic dimethyl carbonate rose to 13433 yuan / ton, up 5.77% in a single day after the festival.

In terms of raw materials, the price of propylene oxide increased significantly after the National Day in October, and the high level of raw materials also supported the strong operation of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate. In addition, in terms of supply, after the shutdown of Shandong and Anhui units, the overall operating rate in the plant was not improved enough, the pressure of factory shipment was small, and the supply of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate in the plant continued to be tight, Since the 10th, the market price has continued to move steadily upward. Many factories have limited sales, and some factories have temporarily closed their offers due to tight supply. On October 22, the ex factory price of propylene glycol in Shandong was around 24000-25000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in Shandong was around 13500-14500 yuan / ton.

In late October, the raw material propylene oxide market went down, and the support for propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate was slightly loose. In addition, after the market price rushed to a high level, the downstream demand side showed general performance, the follow-up of new orders was slow, and the inquiry atmosphere also weakened slightly. It was more cautious to place orders just in need of purchase, but the supply side support was still sufficient, Therefore, at the end of the month, the offers of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate manufacturers are mostly high and stable, and the market has entered a stable consolidation operation stage of one week. Affected by the insufficient performance of the demand side, the market of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate showed a downward trend on the 27th. Among them, propylene glycol merchants appropriately gave up profits to stimulate shipments. The market price of propylene glycol decreased by about 300-500 yuan / ton, and the market price of dimethyl carbonate decreased significantly by about 500-1000 yuan / ton. Up to the 27th, The domestic ex factory price of propylene glycol is around 24000-24500 yuan / ton, and the domestic ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate is around 13000-13500 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the market price of propylene oxide in Shandong fell on October 26, down 2.61% compared with the previous trading day, up 0.38% compared with the price on September 26, and down 1.69% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the raw material propylene market is weak, the liquid chlorine price is down, the cost support is weakened, the market supply is improved, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, the market atmosphere is weak, and the focus of negotiation is low. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may be weak in the short term.

Future trend analysis

At present, propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate manufacturers are actively shipping, but the market inquiry atmosphere has improved, and the actual transactions are still relatively few. In addition, the decline of raw material propylene oxide is also large, and the cost support has gradually weakened. Generally speaking, the effective support for the prices of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate is limited. Therefore, the business society’s propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate data division believes that in the short term, Propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate market has continued downward risk, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes in supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3466 yuan / ton on October 18 and 3466 yuan / ton on October 24. The price of monoammonium phosphate was stable this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3590 yuan / ton on October 18 and 3590 yuan / ton on October 24. The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate was stable this week. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 52%, down from last week. At present, the trend of Monoammonium is weak and the market is weak. Downstream on-demand purchase, few new orders. At present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in China is 3300-3500 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of 58% powdered ammonium is about 3600 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week. The operating rate of enterprises this week was 50%, down from last week. At present, diammonium enterprises mainly issue early orders, and there is no inventory pressure. At present, the price of raw materials is strong, the cost support is favorable, and diammonium is running stably for the time being. The factory quotation of 64% mainstream diammonium in Hubei is 3550-3650 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction can be negotiated.

The domestic market of raw phosphorus ore rose. Supported by the continuous tight supply in Guizhou and Guangxi, some mining enterprises raised the factory price of medium and high-end phosphate rock. As of the 24th, the market reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was around 620-700 yuan / ton, up 20-30 yuan / ton compared with a week ago.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that at present, the transaction of Monoammonium market is weak and the terminal demand is poor. There are many orders for diammonium in the early stage, and the price of raw materials remains high. The Hefei Conference on phosphorus recovery is about to be held, and the on-site attitude is obvious. It is expected that monoammonium will continue the weak trend in the short term, and diammonium will continue to be strong at a high level.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan rose this week. On October 22, the average market price in Henan was 6900.00 yuan / ton. Compared with 6725.00 yuan / ton on October 16, the price increased by 2.60% during the week and 4.94% compared with the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic cryolite market is strong and upward, the upstream raw materials are tight, and the price continues to rise, driving the firm operation of the cryolite industry. Coupled with the impact of limited power production, the production capacity of cryolite enterprises is low, and the quotation of enterprises continues to rise within the week. As of the 22nd, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 6500-6700 yuan / ton, and the market price of cryolite in Henan is increased by 700 yuan / ton, The ex factory quotation is 6500-7900 yuan / ton. Domestic cryolite enterprises have normal plant operation, low enterprise inventory, stable downstream demand, stable shipment, tight market supply and high enterprise cryolite price.

The cryolite market is greatly affected by the upstream. The liquid alkali continues to rise this week, and the price rises by 6.19% during the week. Affected by the limited power policy, some manufacturers start to lower their prices, the market is strong and upward, and the shortage of raw materials drives the cryolite price up. In the downstream, the market of the aluminum industry fluctuated and decreased this week. On October 22, the aluminum price was 21913.33 yuan / ton, an overall decrease of 7.33% compared with the price of 23646.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week. The market is weak. Affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption, the operating rate in the downstream is reduced, superimposed with the high aluminum price in the early stage, the acceptance in the downstream is low, mainly on-demand procurement, weak demand, and the market is sorted out downward.

3、 Future forecast

The domestic cryolite market is strong and upward, the upstream raw materials continue to be tight, the enterprise quotation is mainly high, the downstream demand is stable, and the enterprise shipment is stable. It is expected that the cryolite market will continue to be high in the later stage, and pay more attention to the upstream raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 56000 yuan / ton last Friday and 46666.67 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 16.67% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus prices stopped falling and rebounded this week. Yellow phosphorus prices fell at the beginning of the week. Guizhou limited power in the middle of the week, and yellow phosphorus stopped falling and rebounded. At present, yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly issue early orders, and most manufacturers temporarily stop making external quotations. Traders wait and see, and the search for offers is gradually increasing. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 45000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 45000-50000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 50000 yuan / ton. At present, the focus of the yellow phosphorus market is upward, the downstream goods are more active than before, and the trading volume has increased.

In terms of raw materials, this week, China’s domestic phosphate ore market finally ushered in the first rise after the national day. Supported by the continuous tight supply in Guizhou and Guangxi, some mining enterprises raised the prices of medium and high-end phosphate rock freight plants. After adjustment, the prices of 28% phosphate rock freight plants in Guizhou exceeded 600 yuan / ton, with a reference of 550-600 yuan / ton, The factory price of 30% grade phosphate rock is around 620-650 yuan / ton. The phosphate ore market in Hubei is in high-level consolidation and operation. The quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore truck plate is 660-680 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore truck plate is 660-680 yuan / ton. At present, there is little change in the overall supply and demand of phosphate rock. In areas with tight supply, orders are mainly given to old contract customers. The overall transaction performance of new orders in the market is general, and the downstream procurement is also cautious. As of the 22nd, the market reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was around 620-700 yuan / ton, up 20-30 yuan / ton compared with a week ago.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke in Shandong port is temporarily stable, and the inventory in the two ports has increased slightly. At present, the mainstream spot exchange ex warehouse price of quasi primary coke in the port is 4250-4350 yuan / ton. The futures market has continued to fall by the limit, affecting the mentality of the port market. At present, most traders have a strong wait-and-see mentality. Although the port collection volume has increased to a certain extent, the marketable supply in the market is still limited, and some traders do not quote. The quotation of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market is 4270 yuan / ton. At present, there is a weak balance between supply and demand in the coke market, and the heating season is coming. The production restriction order of coking enterprises will tend to be strict, and the output of both coke and by-products will be reduced to a certain extent. At present, the cost of coke enterprises is high and the price support mentality is strong. It is expected that the future market will remain stable, medium and strong.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid moves downward, the market gradually cools down and the focus moves downward. According to the monitoring of business society, the average price of phosphoric acid was 19000 yuan / ton last Friday and 14533.33 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 23.51% during the week. At present, the price of raw materials is lowered, the cost support is gradually weakened, the operating load of phosphoric acid enterprises is gradually increased, the space elasticity of adjustable price is increased, and the enthusiasm of the market is gradually cooled. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to decline in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business agency, the price of yellow phosphorus fell at the beginning of this week, and the market price of yellow phosphorus stopped falling and rebounded in the middle of the week due to the power restriction in Guizhou. At present, most manufacturers do not make external quotations, and the search for orders is gradually increasing, and the goods are more positive than before. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will tilt upward in the short term, but the range is limited.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the recent domestic PA66 market has remained strong at a high level, and the spot prices of various brands are high. As of October 21, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 41150 yuan / ton, up or down 0.00% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: Recently, the price of adipic acid in East China has remained stable, and the price of most dealers has little change. The price of pure benzene in the upstream runs at a high level, the cost support is strong, the manufacturer supports the price, the dealer’s price has no intention to loosen, the downstream demand has improved slightly, and the transaction is OK. Adipic acid is dominated by high-level operation, and the upward momentum is insufficient. Adiponitrile has not improved much. The capacity loss claimed by large international manufacturers in the medium and long term is still affecting the market, and the supply shortage has not improved. Due to the high dependence on imports of adiponitrile, most domestic PA66 production loads are forced to operate at a low level.

The high price of raw materials rose, and the cost side support of PA66 was strong. The operating rate of the industry is affected by the shortage of adiponitrile. Except Zhejiang Huafeng, the operating rate of PA66 enterprises decreases. Recently, the arrival of goods at each port is rare, and the inventory is low. It is expected that the arrival of imports will be difficult to make up for the domestic demand gap in the short term. In terms of the demand of terminal enterprises, as the household appliance industry is in the peak demand season, there is a certain demand pull for PA66, the seller’s mentality is strong, and the high offer is mainly firm.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the recent high spot price of PA66 remains firm. The raw material side has strengthened at the same time, and the shortage of adiponitrile has not been improved. Due to the lack of raw materials, the overall load of the polymerization plant is low, and the spot supply side is favorable. In terms of demand, the on-site purchase operation is mainly just demand. The market is characterized by balanced supply and demand and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that PA66 will mainly operate at a high level in the near future.

Trade name: PMMA

Latest price (October 20): 17450.00 yuan / ton

The average price of domestic general transparent superior PMMA is 17450.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains about 17000 yuan / ton. The price of PMMA is mainly stable, the overall price change is not obvious, the focus of negotiation is stable, and the supply side is normal.

Future forecast: it is expected that the PMMA market will be stable and small in the short term, and the procurement atmosphere is general.

The data monitoring shows that on October 19, the market was boosted by the flood news in Thailand, and the natural rubber market was crazy upward. Among them, Shanghai Rubber rose by about 650-700 yuan / ton, and the spot rubber was adjusted according to the market. The rising range of Qingdao and Shanghai markets was generally about 500-700 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation of domestic standard 1 in the current period was about 14300-14500 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Yunxiang / Jinfeng whole milk in 19 years was about 14550-14600 yuan / ton, In 20 years, the price of 3L glue in Vietnam was 13500-13700 yuan / ton, and the price of new glue for No. 3 cigarette in Thailand was about 17800 yuan / ton.

Analysis: from a macro perspective, the trend of crude oil is still strong, and the market of bulk raw materials is still strong; The production of synthetic rubber has a great impact on the price of natural rubber. From the perspective of industry, on the supply side, the abnormal weather this year has a great impact on rubber production. On the 19th, I heard that Thailand was suffering from flood and waterlogging. On this basis, the market operated wildly and the price rose sharply; At the import and export end, the sea freight rate has decreased, which has moderately reduced the pressure on rubber transportation. However, the changeable weather also has a great impact on transportation, which may have a certain impact on the centralized arrival of orders in August. At present, the import volume has not increased significantly; On the production side, due to the significant increase in policy requirements and cost pressure, the start-up of tire enterprises has been greatly affected. Some small and medium-sized tires have been shut down. Large tire enterprises are facing various pressures of cost and inventory pressure, and the start-up rate is low; At the downstream demand side, due to the lack of chips and power, the recently released global automobile sales data and passenger car sales data showed a decline.

Forecast: it is expected that under the influence of the flood news in Thailand in the short term, the trend of natural rubber is still strong, but today, Shanghai Rubber closed, and the increase has decreased. It is necessary to beware of the possibility of insufficient capital trend and rising power; In the medium and long term, it is necessary to comprehensively analyze the above factors. Without a significant increase in the supply side, the macro and downstream demand will be supported, and the rubber price will maintain a strong trend; If a large number of imported rubber arrive in Hong Kong, the demand continues to shrink and the macro surface weakens, the rubber price will inevitably be weak.

According to the monitoring data of the business society, after the national day, the hydrogen peroxide market has been in the rising channel, the price has repeatedly reached new highs, and the rising trend has been continuous. As of October 18, the price of hydrogen peroxide has reached 1713 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of more than 30%. Compared with the beginning of October, the increase has been as high as 94.7%.

After the national day, the hydrogen peroxide market began to rise gradually. In the second week, the mode of sharp rise was started. When the weekly increase was close to 30%, in the third week, the single day increase on Monday was more than 30%. Under the pattern of rising costs and tight supply, hydrogen peroxide continued to rise sharply.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide of business society from July 26, 2021 to October 17, 2021, it can be seen that the hydrogen peroxide market has been weak and stable since the end of July, with a maximum decline of 2.81%. The overall performance of the market in August and September was sluggish. In mid September, the hydrogen peroxide Market improved, with a maximum weekly increase of 3.15%. After October 11, hydrogen peroxide ushered in a sharp rise, with a continuous rise. In the week of October 11, hydrogen peroxide rose by 29.57%. On October 18, hydrogen peroxide increased by more than 30%.

Multiple positive factors support the continuous rise of hydrogen peroxide Market

After the national day, the steam cost of hydrogen peroxide unit increased due to the rise of coal price. In addition to the terminal caprolactam, the rigid demand support of the paper printing industry, the increase in procurement, and the tight supply of some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers, supported by multiple favorable factors, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have raised the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the rise of hydrogen peroxide is amazing.

The increase in the week of October 7 was average. In the week of October 15, hydrogen peroxide kept rising, and the ex factory price was raised for many times, with a daily increase of more than 100 yuan / ton, from 1003 yuan / ton on October 11 to 1300 yuan / ton on October 15, an increase of more than 30%. On October 17, the average price of hydrogen peroxide broke through 1700 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of more than 30%.

On October 17, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Luxi, Shandong was 1740 yuan / ton, an increase of 420 yuan / ton in a single day; Hebei Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide quoted 1600 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of 320 yuan / ton; Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1800 yuan / ton, an increase of 500 yuan / ton per day.

Affected by dual control factors, both terminal paper and caprolactam showed an upward trend

After the national day, the cost of caprolactam and pure benzene rose. In addition, some enterprises did not resume supply due to the impact of dual control, the supply of goods was tight, and the price continued to run at a high level, up more than 11% compared with September.

Due to the impact of shutdown risk due to soaring prices of various bulk materials and coal shortage, leading paper enterprises have issued price increase letters. With the rising price of waste paper, the production cost has increased significantly, resulting in the continuous rise of corrugated paper price. In the whole half month, the increase was more than 5%, the price of corrugated paper rose sharply, and the demand for purchasing hydrogen peroxide increased, supporting the upward rise of hydrogen peroxide price. Hydrogen peroxide rose by more than 90%, reaching a new record.

Business agency hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that: with tight supply and rising costs, the hydrogen peroxide market will still operate at a high level in the short term, and the future correction space is limited.

The price of aluminum fluoride rose sharply

According to the data of business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 10500 yuan / ton on October 15, up 3.96% from 10100.00 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month; Aluminum fluoride rose sharply in October.

Overview of industrial chain Market

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of fluorite rose in October, the market of hydrofluoric acid continued to rise sharply, and the cost of aluminum fluoride rose sharply, stimulating the sharp rise of aluminum fluoride price.

According to the monitoring of business society, the aluminum commodity index on October 15 was 132.18, up 2.33 points from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 143.78% from the lowest point of 54.22 on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose to a record high, and the demand for aluminum fluoride remained strong. With the intensification of power rationing, the start-up level of aluminum fluoride enterprises fell, the downstream demand was strong, and the production capacity of aluminum fluoride was limited, which stimulated the rise of aluminum fluoride prices.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that: in October, the price of aluminum fluoride raw materials continued to rise sharply, and the cost of aluminum fluoride increased; The downstream electrolytic aluminum reached a new high, the demand for aluminum fluoride was strong, the power restriction was intensified, the commencement of aluminum fluoride fell, the demand was high, and the supply was tight, which stimulated the sharp rise of aluminum fluoride price. In the future, the price of aluminum fluoride is expected to rise sharply.