1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices continued to decline this week. The average price of domestic isopropanol was 7966.67 yuan / ton last Friday and 7733.33 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 2.93% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from August to October

Isopropanol prices continued to fall this week. The price of raw material acetone continues to decline, suppressing the market mentality. Traders are more cautious in taking goods. Most of the downstream are wait-and-see. The overall trading atmosphere of the market is light, and the isopropanol market quotation fell. Up to now, most quotations of Shandong isopropanol are about 7400-7500 yuan / ton; Most of the quotation range of Jiangsu isopropanol is about 7700 yuan / ton; Most quotations of isopropanol in Zhejiang are about 7600 yuan / ton. Internationally, on November 10, the isopropanol market in the United States closed stable and the isopropanol market in Europe closed stable.

In terms of raw acetone, the domestic acetone market price has been reduced. Up to now, the offer range in East China is 5700 yuan / ton, and there may still be room for negotiation. The terminal demand is poor, the participation of intermediate traders is low, the interest of shippers is increased, the inventory of petrochemical plants has increased, and there is pressure on shipment. The business community expects that the acetone market will be dominated by weak adjustment in the short term.

In terms of raw propylene, the price of propylene continued to decline weakly this week. As of Friday, the price of propylene in Shandong market was 7800-7900 yuan / ton. Propylene’s performance remained stable in the first half of the week, and the price was temporarily stable under the support of raw material cost. On Wednesday, due to the sharp decline of international oil price, the price of propylene accelerated to fall. At the same time, the overall downstream demand was general, and the demand support was insufficient. Propylene is expected to continue to fluctuate and decline in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that the focus of the domestic isopropanol market is downward. The prices of raw materials acetone and propylene have been lowered one after another, and the cost support is insufficient. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is poor, the overall transaction is relatively cold, the confidence of the industry is insufficient, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is obvious, there are few inquiries, and the shipment is slow. It is expected that the price of isopropanol will continue to tilt downward in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fell in early November, and the spot prices of various brands continued to decline. As of November 11, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 16550 yuan / ton, up or down – 5.43% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: upstream styrene continues to decline. At present, the policies related to dual control and environmental protection remain unchanged, and it is difficult to make a breakthrough in demand. On the cost side, upstream commodities such as crude oil and ethylene weaken, and it is expected that the price of styrene will not rise in the short term.

The price of acrylonitrile operated weakly and stably this week, the upstream raw material market was general, the tight spot supply in the field eased, the social inventory began to rise, the mentality of merchants was loose, and the offer was weakly stable.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market stabilized after falling. In the early stage, the market supply was abundant, and the external market fell back with the domestic spot price. At the same time, the industrial load increased, and the export of goods affected the overall increment of supply. Recently, the demand for butadiene has warmed up, and the seller tries to increase.

The upstream market fluctuated, and the cost side support of ABS was general. In terms of operating rate, there was the resumption of parking and maintenance equipment this week, and the increase of output suppressed the spot price of ABS. Due to the downturn of downstream construction caused by the recent double limit and other environmental protection policies, the resistance of merchants to shipment has increased. The superimposed demand is gradually lower, and the on-site profit giving delivery operation is heard a lot.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS continued to decline in early November, and the trend of the three upstream materials fluctuated, which generally contributed to ABS. The domestic spot price fell due to the gradual weakening of demand, and the atmosphere on the floor was buying up rather than buying down. It is expected that the ABS spot market may still fall slightly in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of November 10, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China was 17700 yuan / ton, down 5.52% compared with the price on November 1 and 3.63% compared with the price on October 10.

Recently (11.1-11.10), the acrylic acid market fell. At present, the price of raw propylene rises slightly, the cost support is limited, the downstream demand is light, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is general, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the supply is slightly sufficient, and the market price of acrylic acid is under pressure due to insufficient cost and demand support.

Upstream propylene, Shandong propylene market rose recently (11.05-11.10). According to the bulk list data of business society, as of November 10, the reference price of propylene was 7905.67, an increase of 2.44% compared with the price on November 5 and a decrease of 3.30% compared with November 1.

According to acrylic acid analysts of business society, at present, the price of raw propylene has increased slightly, the cost support is not strong, and the demand performance is not good. It is expected that the acrylic acid market may be dominated by weak consolidation in the short term.

Product Name: propylene glycol

Latest price (November 9): 21266 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, on November 9, the domestic propylene glycol market loosened and fell. The average ex factory price of propylene glycol was 21266 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as the previous working day. Compared with the price on the 7th, the average price was reduced by 567 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.60%. On the 9th, the domestic propylene glycol market was weak, the consolidation operation, the market trading atmosphere was general, the downstream was cautious, and the overall transaction was limited.

Future forecast: at present, the propylene glycol supply side equipment is restored to operation after maintenance, the on-site supply is loose, and the demand performance is general. The propylene glycol analysts of business society believe that the domestic propylene glycol market is mostly stable and consolidated in the short term, focusing on real single transaction negotiation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of downstream demand.

441# silicon price trend

Market analysis

China Silicon branch pointed out that due to the backlog of some inventories at the downstream component end, the reduction at the demand end is slightly greater than that at the supply end. Therefore, the current situation of supply and demand in the silicon material market has changed from short supply to tight balance, and the market price is mainly stable and wait-and-see.

On August 8, 44# metal silicon prices weakened, with an average price of 30250 yuan / ton in the domestic market. The dry season in Sichuan, the main production area, is approaching, and Xinjiang is subject to power rationing and production reduction. Superimposed on the weak metal silicon market, silicon prices continue to weaken. The weakening demand is due to the strong bearish sentiment of downstream aluminum alloy enterprises, mainly on the sidelines, the limited power of polysilicon and other factors, and the output only remains weak and stable. According to the data of business agency, China’s polysilicon output was 40400 tons in October, a month on month decrease of 3%.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that metal silicon prices continue to fall in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market was weak and stable in early November, and the spot prices of individual brands decreased. As of November 4, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 40000 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, adipic acid price has remained stable recently. The price of raw material pure benzene stabilized after falling, and the cost support is still general. In terms of demand, downstream procurement slowed down and dealer prices loosened slightly. Adiponitrile has not improved much. The capacity loss claimed by large international manufacturers in the medium and long term is still affecting the market, and the supply shortage has not improved. Due to the high dependence on imports of adiponitrile, most domestic PA66 production loads are forced to operate at a low level.

The price of raw materials, especially adiponitrile, is high, and the cost side support of PA66 is acceptable. The operating rate of the industry is affected by the shortage of adiponitrile. Except Zhejiang Huafeng, the operating rate of PA66 enterprises decreases. In terms of imported materials, at present, the arrival at each port is still small, and the inventory position is not high. In terms of the demand of terminal enterprises, due to the end of the traditional peak season, the demand has gradually weakened, the seller’s mentality has become loose, and the offer has been reduced from high to low.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 operated weakly and stably in early November, but it is still high. The end price of raw materials is high and stable, and the shortage of adiponitrile has not been improved. Due to the lack of raw materials, the overall load of the polymerization plant is low, and the spot supply side is favorable. In terms of demand, the purchase operation of downstream factories is mainly just demand, the on-site trading volume is weak, the buyers are more resistant to the high offer, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that PA66 may still fall in a narrow range in the near future.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell. On the 1st, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1667.67 yuan / ton, on the 3rd, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1650.00 yuan / ton, down 1.00%, the current price fell 1.59% month on month, and the current price rose 54.69% year-on-year.

Shandong Linyi methanol received the local offer price of 3100 yuan / ton and delivered to spot exchange. There is no logistics offer for the time being. Methanol was mainly downward in short-term shock. Poor support. The demand of downstream plate factories was general, the procurement maintained rigid demand, and the formaldehyde market fell.

Recently, the raw material methanol market is poor and the cost support is weak. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society expects that the recent decline in the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is mainly below.

In October, supported by the sharp rise in raw materials, the domestic market price of chloroform rose sharply. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of chloroform in Shandong was 4187 yuan / ton at the beginning of September and 6200 yuan / ton at the end of September, an increase of 48.06% compared with the beginning of the month.

List of commencement of domestic methane chloride plant in October

In October, the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine rose first and then fell, with strong support in the early stage and weak support in the later stage. According to the business agency, as of October 31, the price of methanol was 3350 yuan / ton, down 7.27% from 3612 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine in tank cars in Shandong is about 2000 yuan / ton, up 17.65% from 1700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and down 51.22% from the highest point of 4100 yuan / ton in the month.

Future forecast: according to the chloroform analyst of business agency, the start-up of methane chloride unit in October is slightly higher than that in September, but the start-up of the industry is still not high, and there is no pressure on the supply side of chloroform. At present, methanol and liquid chlorine are rising and falling, and the cost support is weak; Overall, chloroform may fall slightly in the short term.

According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on October 31 was 40.70, the same as yesterday, down 59.30% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 49.19% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in October 2021

Figure 3: Weekly K-line chart of natural rubber mainstream price in October 2021

Data monitoring shows that in October 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber in China continued to fluctuate and rise, and turned downward near the end of the month. On the 1st, the mainstream price was about 13184.17 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the mainstream price was about 13723.23 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.09%; Among them, the monthly highest price appeared at 14291.67 yuan / ton on the 19th, and the lowest price was 13184.17 yuan / ton during the national day, with a maximum amplitude of 8.4% in the month.

New rubber output: there were frequent reports of floods in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, India and other major producing countries this month. The rainy production area affected rubber output and the price of raw rubber increased; In China’s domestic area, according to the introduction of local traders, there is a shortage of raw rubber, and rubber cutting will be stopped in mid and late November. From the supply side, the market has strong market expectations for La Nina this winter.

Demand: in terms of tires, the data show that the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong last week (25-29) was 60.52%, down 14.8% from the same period last year; The operating load of semi steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 55.86%, down 14.95% compared with the same period last year; The soaring price of raw materials has led to the rising cost of tire enterprises. It is reported that due to factors such as poor sales in domestic and foreign markets and the sharp rise of manufacturing raw materials, the profits of domestic tire enterprises generally fell sharply in the third quarter. At present, more than 80 tire enterprises, including foreign tires, have announced the implementation of new price policies in October, and the price increase may continue, The tire price rise tide in the fourth quarter may reach its peak.

In terms of automobile: the operating rate of automobile manufacturers continues to be low due to chip shortage, power and production restriction and other factors, the spot inventory is small, and the sales naturally can not go up. The demand for raw material procurement is greatly affected, which directly leads to the high inventory pressure of finished tire products, the tire enterprises control the output, and the operating rate continues to decline; According to the preliminary data of the first commercial vehicle network, in October this year, China’s heavy truck market is expected to sell about 53000 models (billing caliber), a month on month decrease of 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 61.5%, which is the second lowest monthly sales since this year, only slightly higher than the “bottom” sales in August (51300 vehicles), a decrease of about 84000 vehicles compared with the same period last year. October is also the sixth decline in the heavy truck industry this year, and it has fallen for six consecutive months since May. Data show that from January to October, the cumulative sales volume of China’s heavy truck market was about 1286000, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, an increase of 6.1 percentage points compared with the 0.3% decline from January to September.

In terms of inventory: as of October 29, the inventory of natural rubber in the previous period was 285213 tons (+ 15818 tons), the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 220320 tons (+ 8360 tons), the domestic delivery inventory increased, and the monthly increment increased significantly; The energy inventory in the previous period was 40437 tons (+ 4638 tons) of No. 20 glue and 28910 tons (+ 1412 tons) of futures warehouse receipts. The inventory also increased significantly. In Qingdao, although the social inventory of natural rubber is still low, it has increased slightly. The amount of rubber delayed in the early stage has arrived in Hong Kong one after another.

Import and export: according to the data of the General Administration of customs, China imported 620000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in September 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 28.9%; From January to September 2021, China imported 4.96 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), and the cumulative import volume from January to August decreased by 7.6% year-on-year.

Figure 4: tire enterprises intensively issue price increase notices

Hot spots in the industry: affected by the increasing tire manufacturing costs caused by the continuous rise of raw material prices, the sharp rise of freight and the decline of enterprise production capacity caused by power and production restrictions, many tire enterprises intensively issued tire price increase notices. For example, the price of all steel and semi steel of Linglong tire will be increased by 3% – 5% from October 1; From October 11, the price of all brands of commercial vehicle tires will be increased by 2%; Since October, the prices of all brand products of Zhengdao tire have increased by 3% – 5%; The price of all products of the whole brand of East China tire has increased by 3% – 5% since October; Since October 10, the sales price of Shandong Yongsheng rubber to the company’s tbr products has risen by 3% – 5%. The following figure shows the price increase notice of several enterprises

Figure 5: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2021

In the future, the situation in 2021 is special. Under the comprehensive action of multiple factors, the natural rubber market is really not easy. It is expected that in the future, the traditional peak consumption season has passed, and the key problems that determine the downstream demand still cannot be solved in the short term, resulting in weak demand; On the supply side, China’s domestic areas will continue to stop cutting next month. This year’s maritime dilemma has delayed the arrival of imported rubber at the port. At present, the arrival volume will continue to increase, which will offset the supply shortage caused by cutting. What is more prominent is that the market generally has strong expectations for La Nina this winter, which may lead to an obvious reduction in supply, which will strongly support the rubber price. In conclusion, from the comprehensive impact analysis of the macro situation at both ends of supply and demand, especially the guiding role of crude oil, it is expected that the natural rubber shock is relatively weak in the short term.

Precious metal spot prices rose slightly in October

According to the data of business agency, the average early trading price of silver market on October 29 was 4885.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 6.56% compared with the average early trading price of 4585 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of October (October 1); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 11.97%.

On October 29, the spot market price of gold was 369.99 yuan / g, a decrease of 1.80% compared with the early average price of 380.20 yuan / g in the spot market price at the beginning of October (10.1); Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), 392.70 yuan / g, down 5.78%.

Silver Rose relatively rapidly in October

Recently, the fluctuation amplitude of silver price is large. On the whole, silver is at a low level in the early stage, and the rebound is stronger.

However, from the perspective of non-ferrous metals, precious metals performed in a regular manner, silicon and aluminum fell first, and rare earth plates soared:

commodity Price on October 28 Price on October 1 Monthly rise and fall

Metallic silicon forty-two thousand sixty thousand eight hundred and thirty-three point three three – 30.96%

aluminium nineteen thousand three hundred and forty-six point six seven twenty-two thousand seven hundred and thirteen point three three – 14.82%

magnesium forty-six thousand six hundred and sixty-six point six seven fifty-one thousand six hundred and sixty-six point six seven – 9.68%

ilmenite two thousand three hundred and forty two thousand four hundred and fifty – 4.49%

tin two hundred and seventy-two thousand three hundred and eighty-seven point five two hundred and seventy-eight thousand and twelve point five – 2.02%

gold three hundred and seventy-one point zero three three hundred and sixty-three point four four 2.09%

copper seventy thousand seven hundred and thirty-five sixty-eight thousand seven hundred and ninety-six point six seven 2.82%

nickel one hundred and forty-five thousand three hundred and sixteen point six seven one hundred and forty-one thousand and three hundred 2.84%

antimony eighty thousand and five hundred seventy-seven thousand and five hundred 3.87%

zinc twenty-three thousand six hundred and eighty-eight twenty-two thousand six hundred and eighty-six 4.42%

Dysprosium oxide two million eight hundred and thirty-five thousand two million seven hundred and five thousand 4.81%

cobalt four hundred and one thousand and two hundred three hundred and eighty-one thousand and six hundred 5.14%

Dysprosium metal three million six hundred and thirty thousand three million four hundred and forty-five thousand 5.37%

silver four thousand nine hundred and five point three three four thousand five hundred and eighty-five 6.99%

Dysprosium ferroalloy two million eight hundred and forty thousand two million six hundred and forty thousand 7.58%

lead fifteen thousand and six hundred fourteen thousand three hundred and ninety-three point seven five 8.38%

praseodymium nine hundred and seventy-five thousand eight hundred and sixty thousand 13.37%

Neodymium metal nine hundred and fifteen thousand seven hundred and seventy-five thousand 18.06%

Praseodymium oxide seven hundred and seventy-five thousand six hundred and forty thousand 21.09%

Neodymium oxide seven hundred and sixty-five thousand six hundred and twenty-seven thousand and five hundred 21.91%

Praseodymium neodymium oxide seven hundred and thirty-two thousand and five hundred six hundred thousand 22.08%

Praseodymium neodymium alloy nine hundred and five thousand seven hundred and thirty-eight thousand and five hundred 22.55%

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Domestic demand for precious metals rose in the third quarter and is expected to continue in the fourth quarter

According to the data of the World Gold Council, China’s gold jewelry demand reached 157 tons in the third quarter of 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 32% and a month on month increase of 7%. In the third quarter, China’s sales of gold bars and gold coins were strong, with a total of 65 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%.

In terms of investment demand, by the end of the third quarter of 2021, the overall position of China’s gold ETF was 72 tons, and the inflow in the third quarter was 3.2 tons.

Domestic demand for precious metals rose in the third quarter and is expected to continue in the fourth quarter. On the one hand, the fourth quarter was originally the traditional peak season for China’s gold jewelry consumption. In addition, new varieties such as Gufa Jinpu and popular, gram heavy and high gold jewelry products promoted sales; On the other hand, the sharp rise and fall of the futures market and the volatile stock market may also make many investors increase their efforts to allocate gold ETFs to disperse risks.

International policy factors

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on Thursday that the annual growth rate of U.S. GDP in the third quarter fell to 2% from 6.7% in the previous quarter (April to June). The US GDP data for the third quarter was lower than expected, easing market concerns about the Fed’s early interest rate hike.

However, the market focused on the Fed’s main inflation indicators on Friday. The market expects core personal consumption expenditure to increase by 3.7% year-on-year in September. The market forecast for the possibility of three interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve in 2022 is slightly higher than 50%, which has dampened the confidence of the precious metal market to a certain extent.

Recently, the price of precious metals has been stable and volatile. Focus on the following news in the future:

Recent policy focus

The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting from November 2 to 3.