In December, the domestic dimethyl ether Market was weak and difficult to change, showing a trend of first decline and then consolidation. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4127.50 yuan / ton on December 1 and 3720.00 yuan / ton on December 28, with a decrease of 9.87% during the month and 19.04% compared with November 1.

As of December 28, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region 3930 yuan / ton

Hebei region 3910 yuan / ton

Henan region 3690-3700 yuan / ton

In the last month of 2021, the domestic dimethyl ether Market was weak and difficult to change, and the price continued to decline. The decline was mainly concentrated in the first ten days of December, and the narrow range oscillation was mainly in the second ten days of December. In the first half of the month, the market continued its weakness in November and continued to decline. The falling price of raw methanol brought obvious bad news to the market, and the related product liquefied gas was mainly weak affected by the decline of international crude oil, and the dimethyl ether Market was obviously bad. The ex factory quotation of Henan market was continuously reduced, and Jiangxi and Hebei followed the decline. In the middle of the month, the market rebounded slightly, and the tentative high report in the methanol market boosted the dimethyl ether Market. In the early stage, with the price of dimethyl ether falling to a relatively low level, the downstream bargain hunting and replenishment, the market entry enthusiasm improved, the manufacturer’s mentality was strong, and the ex factory quotation rose one after another, but the rising market did not continue. Then the market entered the consolidation stage until the end of the month.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2492 yuan / ton on December 27. In terms of spot goods, the ex factory quotations of major manufacturers mostly fell, ranging from 50-100 yuan / ton. There are many rainy and snowy weather, local transportation is limited, and the freight is high, so traders mainly wait and see. The raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is acceptable, and most of them purchase on demand. The short-term domestic methanol market is sluggish, mainly finishing.

Near the end of the month, the dimethyl ether Market stopped falling and stabilized. Recently, with the obvious cooling of the weather, the terminal demand has increased. In addition, the new year’s Day holiday is coming, and there is a certain replenishment demand in the downstream before and after the festival. However, the decline of raw materials has obviously restrained the market. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market may increase slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride fell sharply this week. As of December 26, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 14600.00 yuan / ton, down 13.27% from the average price of 16833.33 yuan / ton on December 20, up 22.35% from the same period last month.

On December 26, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 137.54, the same as yesterday, down 17.36% from the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 168.74% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started steadily this week. The recent commencement of the downstream unsaturated resin market is relatively stable, mainly the implementation of early orders, and the purchasing sentiment is general. As of the 26th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 14000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 14000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 14000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 14000 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 14000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of maleic anhydride fell sharply this week, and the downstream mainly digested the high price orders in the early stage. The demand just slowed down, the transaction was light, and the wait-and-see mood was strong.

Upstream, pure benzene fell first and then rose this week. The average price of pure benzene was 6620 yuan / ton on December 19 and 6830 yuan / ton on December 26, an increase of 210 yuan / ton or 3.17% over last week. This week, the market price of hydrobenzene in North China fell, from 6825.00 yuan / ton on December 20 to 6512.50 yuan / ton on December 26, down 4.58%. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 4770.00 yuan / ton as of December 26.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 51st week of 2021 (12.20-12.24), there are 37 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were caustic soda (13.07%), isooctanol (7.93%) and isobutyraldehyde (5.81%). A total of 37 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 4 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 3.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were maleic anhydride (- 13.27%), crude benzene (- 6.79%) and diethylene glycol (- 6.52%). Both rose or fell by 0.04% this week.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market price has fallen sharply, and the downstream mainly digests the high price orders in the early stage. The just need to slow down, the transaction is light, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. At present, the domestic maleic anhydride spot is tight, but the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are expected to ship in early January, and the supply will increase. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may continue to decline in the near future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price first fell and then rose this week. As of December 24, the spot nickel price was 151000 yuan / ton, up 1.23% from 149160 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 17.85% from the beginning of the year, and up 19.04% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices rose by 5 and fell by 7, with a wide fluctuation trend recently.

Macro factors: oil prices and stock markets both rose, while industrial metals generally rose.

Nickel industry chain

In terms of supply: the import of nickel ore from the Philippines decreases sharply in the rainy season, but the downstream profit squeeze will be transmitted to the mine end. The recent price reduction of high nickel iron is large, and it runs under pressure.

Downstream: the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise, while the profit of nickel sulfate production was poor. In December, stainless steel production fell, and the demand for nickel weakened.

To sum up: during the rainy season in the Philippines, China’s nickel ore imports decreased sharply. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise, while at the end of the year, the demand for nickel sulfate by the leading enterprises was sluggish, the production profit of nickel sulfate was poor, and some manufacturers maintained it. Nickel inventory is low, but pure nickel has arrived recently. Nickel prices are expected to remain wide and volatile.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of December 23, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 8166 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 8933 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 767 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.58%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that in early December, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fell sharply, with a decline of 14.18% in the first half of the month. Since the beginning of this month, affected by the sharp drop in international oil prices, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol field has been calm, the downstream demand has been cautious, the n-butanol factory has accumulated inventory, and the shipping pressure has increased. Since the 2nd, the offer price of the n-butanol factory in Shandong has been gradually reduced, and the trading focus in the n-butanol field has also been continuously downward. The wait-and-see mood in the downstream has always been strong, the goods are carefully prepared, and the contradiction between supply and demand has been intensified, As of December 13, the average price of n-butanol in Shandong had dropped to 7500 yuan / ton. Then the low-end price of n-butanol increased, and the overall trading atmosphere in the venue improved. In addition, the temporary parking of n-butanol units in Northwest China strengthened the support of the supply side in the venue. From December 14, the market situation of n-butanol in Shandong stopped falling and warmed up, and the offer price of the factory increased slightly. As of December 15, The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong is 7600-7800 yuan / ton, and the average price is 7666 yuan / ton, a decrease of 15.57% in the first half of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

In late December, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong continued to pick up steadily as a whole, downstream users bought goods on bargain hunting, the trading atmosphere was calm, the overall supply pressure of n-butanol was small, and there was still support in the supply. Since the 16th, Shandong factory continued to slightly increase the outgoing price of n-butanol. As of December 23, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 8000-8300 yuan / ton, The average price is 8166 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on the 15th, it increased by 6.52% in late December, and the overall decline is still 8.58% compared with the beginning of the month. At present, the atmosphere of low price transaction in the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is acceptable, the downstream just needs to perform stably, the factory orders are arranged normally, and some factories receive new orders under the support of supply.

In terms of index, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) on December 22 was 64.40, the same as yesterday, down 51.13% from the highest point of 131.79 in the cycle (2021-05-16), and up 115.46% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to the period since September 1, 2011)

In terms of upstream propylene, on December 22, the trend of propylene (Shandong) tends to be stable, and the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong is 7400-7450 yuan / ton. Recently, the crude oil price has fluctuated all the way, which has limited boost to the propylene market. The downstream market is dominated by just demand, the procurement atmosphere is not high, the market supply is sufficient, and the demand pull is limited. It is expected that the propylene market will be weak and low in the near future.

Future analysis of n-butanol

Based on the current situation, the supply side of n-butanol is still supporting in the short term, and the overall downstream demand is OK. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong will be stable and strong, and more attention should be paid to the changes of supply and demand side.

In 2021, the domestic civil liquefied gas market fluctuated frequently and greatly, showing an overall trend of first improving and then restraining, and the price is still mainly rising. According to the annual comparison chart of business society, the highest point in 2021 has broken through the new height of liquefied gas market in the past seven years, and the liquefied gas civil market has returned to the era of 6000 yuan. It also deduces a rare trend of “not light in the off-season and not prosperous in the peak season”. During the year, the liquefied gas market rose and fell like a “roller coaster” for many times.

It can be seen from the 2021 LNG trend chart of business society that the LPG market showed a trend of shock and rise in the first three quarters of 2021 until the “roller coaster” market appeared in the fourth quarter, and the LPG market ended in weakness at the end of 2021.

The business agency selected the domestic representative Shandong civil market for monitoring. The average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 3490.00 yuan / ton on January 1 and 4896.00 yuan / ton on December 21, with an increase of 40.29% during the year. The lowest point of the year occurred on January 1, the average price of civil gas in Shandong was 3490.00 yuan / ton, the highest point occurred on October 22, the average price of civil gas in Shandong was 6744.00 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude was 93.24%.

It can be seen from the monthly k-column chart of business society that from January to October 2021, the liquefied gas market in Shandong increased to varying degrees, of which the increase was the most obvious in October, with a monthly increase of 13.59%. By November, the liquefied gas market in Shandong decreased, with a decrease of 9.37%.

It can be seen from the comparison trend chart of the term of the business community that the trend of the liquefied gas spot market in 2021 is not different, and it also shows a trend of high first and then low. In addition to the decline of futures and the rise of spot from late March to early April, the trend is relatively unified. The spot market began to weaken in October.

As a by-product of crude oil, the trend of international crude oil this year still has a great impact on LPG. In 2021, crude oil has been advancing all the way and rising in shock. According to the monitoring of business society, WTI crude oil surged from $48 at the beginning of the year to $80 in late October, and fell in shock in the two months at the end of the year. As of December 22, WTI rose 46.94% and Brent crude oil rose 43.29%. The core logic of the rise in oil prices in 2021 is basically highly related to the evolution trend of the epidemic. In addition, under the macro background of inflation expectations, supply tightening and economic recovery also provide impetus for the rise of oil prices.

Review of Civil liquefied gas market in 2021:

The liquefied gas market rose sharply and rose after falling sharply

The first quarter is new year’s day and Spring Festival, and the trend of liquefied gas is greatly affected by holidays. The beginning of the year continued last year (2020) at the end of the year, the market was favorable and sufficient, and the liquefied gas market rose rapidly. The introduction of the sharp rise in CP price in January, the sharp rise in international crude oil and the demand for downstream storage and replenishment after the festival all supported the rise in liquefied gas price and ushered in a short start. Then, due to the rapid rise in price, the downstream was dominated by delisting and wait-and-see with the end of replenishment, the market trading atmosphere was significantly weaker than that in the early stage, and the manufacturers were out of business The goods were blocked, the price was rationally corrected and fell back to the pre holiday level. After the Spring Festival, the price rose again. At the end of the first quarter, the price of civil gas in Shandong rose to 4000 yuan / ton.

The LPG market continued to rise, and the center of gravity moved upward

The second quarter continued the rising trend of the first quarter, and the focus of liquefied gas price continued to move upward. The downstream inventory and replenishment demand before and after the Qingming holiday has a good enthusiasm for entering the market, and the market trading atmosphere is positive. In the second quarter, the market entered the stage of centralized maintenance. Refineries were overhauled one after another, and the market supply decreased accordingly. In addition, the international crude oil fluctuated upward, and the news was good for the market mentality. Although the increase in the second quarter was not as good as that in the first quarter, the overall performance was still dominated by the above actors.

The off-season LPG market breaks through the 5000 yuan mark

In the third quarter, July and August entered the traditional off-season demand. The liquefied gas market interpreted the off-season market, and the price continued to be dominated. In the third quarter, the trend of liquefied gas was twists and turns. The continuous rise of Saudi Aramco CP price, the relative high of international crude oil and the rise of LPG futures market brought obvious support to the liquefied gas market. Under the situation of weak terminal demand, the liquefied gas market was strong and upward. Only in late August, affected by the sharp decline of international crude oil, there was a short decline, followed by the “golden nine”, the price of liquefied gas continued to rise, and the price exceeded the level of 5000 yuan / ton.

The liquefied gas market showed an “inverted V” trend, and the price reached a new high in 7 years

In the fourth quarter, the liquefied gas market rose first and then declined, falling more than rising. After entering the “silver ten”, the market continued to rise. After the eleventh small holiday, the downstream market replenishment was active, the manufacturers shipped smoothly, the inventory was pressureless, and the mentality was strong. International crude oil continued to rise, and the news was good for the market mentality. The sharp rise of CP propane butane in October brought a significant boost to the domestic market. In terms of demand, with the cooling of the weather in the north, the terminal demand increased significantly. Liquefied gas rose to the highest point in the year on October 22, and also reached a new height in recent seven years. The price of civil gas in Shandong rose to above 6700 yuan / ton.

At the end of October, the market continued to rise with insufficient power, entered the downward channel, and the weakness continued until the end of the year. During this period, the international crude oil fluctuated and fell, the CP price fell in December, and the market was not supported. With the price rising to a high level, the downstream has limited acceptance capacity, has resistance to high prices, has poor enthusiasm for entering the market, coupled with insufficient follow-up on market demand, the cooling in some areas is not obvious, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, the downstream makes up more on demand, and the manufacturer’s shipment is blocked. In addition, the LPG futures market fluctuated and fell, bringing significant pressure to the spot market. Although the traditional peak season of the market has not passed, the weakness is difficult to change. As of December 22, the price of civil gas in Shandong fell back below 5000 yuan / ton.

Future forecast:

In 2020, affected by the world public health, the demand for liquefied gas was weak, and the price fell again and again. However, in 2021, with the gradual recovery of demand, the price of liquefied gas rebounded, and the rise was crazy, which showed that the off-season was not light and the golden nine silver ten came as promised. During the year, the rise of international crude oil was obvious, and the liquefied gas market followed up many times, In addition, the upward CP price of Saudi Aramco has also brought obvious support to the domestic market. Although the peak season is not over near the end of the year, and the liquefied gas market is constrained by insufficient terminal demand, it is difficult to change its weakness in the short term, compared with the same period last year, the price of civil gas in Shandong is still at a high level. It is estimated that the trend of liquefied gas in 2022 may be different from that of this year, or it may be weak first and then strong. However, as a by-product of crude oil, we still need to pay more attention to the trend of international crude oil.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8960.00 yuan / ton on December 9 and 8820.00 yuan / ton on December 21. During this period, the price fell by 1.56%, down 1.12% compared with November 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11962.50 yuan / ton on December 9 and 11875.00 yuan / ton on December 21. During this period, the price fell by 0.73%, down 0.52% compared with November 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8800.00 yuan / ton on December 9 and 8800.00 yuan / ton on December 21. During this period, the price remained stable, down 0.75% compared with November 1.

In the middle of December, the domestic polyethylene spot market moved down steadily, and the overall fluctuation range was small. LLDPE and LDPE showed a trend of falling first and then stabilizing, and HDPE was mainly stable during the period. In June, most of the ex factory prices of SINOPEC enterprises fell, with a reduction range of 50-150 yuan / ton. Liansu futures market surged, bringing phased benefits to the spot market. However, the recent decline of international crude oil is mainly due to limited cost support. At present, there are few favorable factors in the market, the terminal demand turns weak, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is limited, and the trading atmosphere is general. The merchant’s mentality is weak, mainly making profit and shipping, and the firm price focuses on a single discussion.

Recently, Liansu futures fluctuated upward, bringing phased benefits to the spot market. On December 21, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2201 was 8500, the highest price was 8612, the lowest price was 8489, the closing price was 8557, the former settlement price was 8509, the settlement price was 8556, up 48, or 0.56%, the trading volume was 85742, the position was 46743, and the daily position was increased by – 14016. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the market supply has increased, but in terms of market demand, the demand for plastic film is in the off-season, the demand for plastic film is general, and the overall demand is limited. The volatile rise of Liansu futures market has brought certain benefits to the spot market. The international crude oil price is mainly weak. In general, there are insufficient positive factors in the market. It is expected that the PE spot market will be mainly sideways consolidation in the short term.

The spot aluminum price fluctuated slightly in December

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on December 20 was 19596.67 yuan / ton, up 1.01% from the average market price of 19400 yuan / ton on December 17; Compared with the average market price of 18900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1), an increase of 3.69%.

At present, the aluminum price has fallen below the high and volatile operation range in the early stage. With the peak value of this year (October 19, 2021) and the average price of aluminum ingot Market of 124240 yuan / ton, it has fallen by 19.16% recently. With the average price of aluminum ingot Market of 15726.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, the cumulative increase has decreased to 24.61%.

Recent influencing factors

1. Alumina prices fell sharply

On December 20, 2021, the prices of alumina spot contract of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited are as follows:

The external quotation of Shandong is 2950 yuan / ton, that of Henan is 2950 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi is 2950 yuan / ton, that of Guizhou is 2900 yuan / ton, and that of Guangxi is 2900 yuan / ton.

Compared with the alumina spot contract on December 1, the regional prices fell by 600 yuan / ton, 550 yuan / ton, 550 yuan / ton, 600 yuan / ton and 400 yuan / ton respectively.

2. The output of electrolytic aluminum decreased year-on-year in November

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, China’s electrolytic aluminum production in November decreased by 1.8% year-on-year to 3.101 million tons. In November, alumina production decreased by 4.5% year-on-year to 6.05 million tons, the lowest since May 2020. In November, the output of aluminum alloy decreased slightly by 0.3% year-on-year to 906000 tons.

Plasticizer DOP prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, DOP prices fell sharply this week, and DOP prices fell sharply. As of December 17, the DOP price was 9500 yuan / ton, down 9.95% from 10550 yuan / ton on December 10 last weekend; Compared with the DOP price of 11200 yuan / ton on December 1 at the beginning of the month, it fell sharply, down 15.18%. DOP market fell sharply in December, and DOP continued its weak decline this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol market continued the downward trend this week, and the price of isooctanol fell sharply. Purchase cautiously at the high-end price in the market, with less new order trading volume in the market, stalemate in high price spot negotiation, increased bearish mentality on the floor, and downstream customers just need small order purchase. The transaction of isooctanol was cold, the price of isooctanol fell, the cost of plasticizer DOP fell, and the downward pressure of DOP increased.

Phthalic anhydride price stabilized this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride first rose and then fell this week. The overall price of phthalic anhydride was flat and the phthalic anhydride market stabilized. The phthalic anhydride market stabilized and the downward pressure of DOP weakened.

PVC prices fell sharply

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of PVC fell by 3.98% this week, and the PVC market fell sharply. In the off-season of PVC demand, PVC enterprises cut prices and shipped goods. Downstream customers waited and saw more, and the market transaction was cold. PVC market fell and DOP market became more bearish.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business agency, believes that this week, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride stabilized, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the cost of DOP fell sharply, and the downward pressure of DOP increased; PVC prices continued to decline weakly, DOP demand was general, and downstream customers’ procurement was cold. In general, the price of raw materials decreased, the cost pressure of DOP was large, the downstream market was still weak, the demand for DOP was cold, and the price of DOP fell sharply. The demand for raw materials is insufficient, and it is expected that the DOP price will fluctuate and fall in the future.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic POM market rose in the first half of December, and the spot price rose. As of December 10, the average price offered by POM injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 20666.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 4.03% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: the recent domestic market of upstream methanol is weak, the downstream demand is poor, and the purchasing mood is weak, but the formaldehyde manufacturers maintain low load production. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of business society predict that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong is mainly fluctuating and falling.

Upstream formaldehyde continued to be weak, and POM cost side support was poor. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises continues to be high. Recently, affected by Yuntianhua maintenance plan, the market supply is expected to be reduced. And there are still enterprise maintenance plans announced in the future. The inventory of enterprises is low. In the domestic market, under the condition of insufficient imports, the tight supply pattern continues. Recently, it is superimposed with the expectation of tight supply. Businesses are reluctant to sell, and the on-site trading catch-up is general. Shenhuaning coal mc90 is quoted at a reference price of about 20100 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal. The reference price of Tianye Chemical is about 21000 yuan / ton. The ex factory reference price of Yuntianhua M90 is about 20900 yuan / ton.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market rose this week, the upstream formaldehyde market continued to decline, and the cost support of POM was weak. The on-site supply is compact, superimposed with the expectation that the future supply will be further tightened, and the merchants’ reluctant sale operation will increase. However, at present, the downstream is more resistant to the high price supply, and there is some resistance to the rising market. Overall, there is more market outlook in the market, and it is expected that the spot price of POM may continue to rise.

In the first half of December, domestic liquid ammonia experienced a process of falling first and then bottoming up. Last week, the market was still affected by the weakness of both supply and demand. The prices in Shandong and Hebei fell sharply, generally more than 300 yuan / ton. Since this week, driven by the urea market, the price of liquid ammonia has stabilized and rebounded, with an increase of more than 100 yuan in Shandong, Hebei, southwest and northwest. However, the market has not yet rebounded to the price at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 15, the overall decline of liquid ammonia was 1.55%. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4100-4300 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, under the background of supply guarantee policy, the operating rate of liquid ammonia enterprises remains relatively high. The ammonia release in the main production area increased significantly. In addition to the previous maintenance devices, there were few new maintenance devices in the market. The overall supply of liquid ammonia remained loose. The price fell significantly in the first and second weeks of December. Since this week, the supply of liquid ammonia in Shandong and surrounding areas has been significantly tightened, and the amount of ammonia released by enterprises has decreased. Boosted by this, the price has stabilized and rebounded.

 
At present, the price of liquid ammonia is still suppressed by the cost side. Affected by the regulation and control, the coal price continued to decline. Since December, the market has been weak. According to the monitoring of business society, the monthly decline of power coal was 0.23% as of the 15th. Under the influence of the policy, the tight supply situation was alleviated, the release of production capacity was greatly strengthened, and the price of thermal coal decreased. The sales of coal in the main producing area is now poor, the pace of market procurement has slowed down, and the inventory on the mine has increased; In terms of ports, the market wait-and-see mood is still strong. Traders have reduced prices and promoted sales, and the actual transaction is biased towards the low end. The power plant is not willing to replenish the warehouse, and multi-dimensional maintenance is mainly based on purchasing.

On the demand side, urea has followed the trend of liquid ammonia since December, falling first and then rising. As of December 15, the monthly decline since December was 1.76%. The previous decline was mainly due to oversupply. Since last week, with the expected increase in the maintenance of southwest gas head unit, the urea price has obviously warmed up. Demand has also improved. In terms of agricultural fertilizer, downstream manufacturers purchase on bargain hunting and stock up. In industry, the inventory of downstream rubber plate factory also has a downward trend, and the trading volume is slightly higher. However, the main tone of the market is still affected by environmental protection and has not been substantially improved.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, and the price difference has basically remained reasonable since December.

From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, the liquid ammonia industry chain is still weak, and the prices of many downstream products have decreased significantly, especially ammonium chloride, melamine and other products.

Future forecast: the business community believes that in the short term, the price supply and demand of liquid ammonia will basically maintain a balanced pattern. The market will be supported by local favorable conditions, and the price will show regional differentiation. It is expected that the prices in the main production areas such as Shandong and Hebei will stabilize one after another. Due to the expected impact of device maintenance in the southwest, there is still room for upward price.