1、 Price data

As of November 21, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7800.75 yuan / ton, up 4.70% from 7450.75 yuan / ton on November 15. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7700-8000 yuan / ton.

As of November 21, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7617.50 yuan / ton, up 4.86% from 7262.50 yuan / ton on November 15. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7500-7800 yuan / ton.

On November 21, the naphtha commodity index was 96.28, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.83% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 127.94% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of local refining and hydrogenation naphtha rose sharply, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the terminal was released, the refineries pushed up actively, and the market trading was positive.

Upstream: the international oil price has fallen one after another. According to the monitoring of business news agency, WTI crude oil fell by 6.97% and Brent crude oil fell by 4.80%. Although the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory data was positive last week, the main concern was the epidemic in Europe and the United States wanted to release strategic crude oil reserves with major economies. The short market atmosphere still put pressure on oil prices.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene fell continuously this week, and the price weakened broadly. The price was 6500 yuan / ton on November 12 and 6210.2 yuan / ton on November 19, down 4.46% from last week. Mixed xylene fell continuously this week, and the price fell broadly. The price of mixed xylene was 6220 yuan / ton on November 12 and 6040 yuan / ton on November 19, down 2.89% from last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the 19th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 5 commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the energy sector in the 46th week of 2021 (11.15-11.19), and the top 3 commodities are naphtha (4.70%), diesel (3.82%) and gasoline (2.73%). A total of 10 commodities decreased month on month, and 5 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coking coal (- 12.35%), petroleum coke (- 10.90%) and asphalt (- 10.26%). The average rise and fall this week was – 2.94%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the market price of refined oil in Shandong continues to rise this week, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the terminal part is released, and refineries push up positively, but the sharp decline of international crude oil may inhibit the push up situation. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.