1、 Price data

As of April 24, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8323.33 yuan / ton, up 3.39% from 8050.75 yuan / ton on April 18. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8300-8400 yuan / ton.

As of April 24, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8242.50 yuan / ton, up 4.24% from 7907.50 yuan / ton on April 18. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 8200-8300 yuan / ton.

On April 24, the naphtha commodity index was 102.73, up 0.9 points from yesterday, down 15.55% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 143.21% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha continued to rise, the naphtha market was well traded, refineries actively pushed up, the demand for terminal olefins and reforming increased, and some enterprises began to stock up before the festival.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuates, the market is intertwined, the global economic recovery slows down, the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to heat up, and the domestic epidemic depresses demand, and the oil price is under pressure. On the other hand, the EU is considering imposing an oil ban on Russia, tightening supply expectations, limiting the decline in oil prices, and the recent crude oil price range has fluctuated.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, toluene continued to rise this week. The price of toluene was 7150 yuan / ton on April 15 and 7360 yuan / ton on April 22, up 2.94% from last week. Mixed xylene rose continuously this week. The price was 7140 yuan / ton on April 15 and 7420 yuan / ton on April 22, up 3.92% from last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, up 45.31% year-on-year.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the naphtha market was well traded this week, refineries actively pushed up, and the demand for terminal olefins and reforming increased. Some enterprises began to prepare goods before the festival, but the overall demand is general. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.