In May, the market of nitrile rubber declined in a weak way. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of nitrile rubber at the beginning of the month was 24550 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 22750 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.33% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

In May, the domestic nitrile rubber operating rate was close to 80%, and the supply side was relatively sufficient; Downstream product enterprises started at a low level, and the demand side was slightly weak. The ex factory price of nitrile rubber enterprises was adjusted downward by 500~800 yuan / ton. As of May 31, the ex factory price of Lanhua nitrile n41e was 22500 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of 3305e is 22800 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of 3308e is 23800 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of Nandi nitrile 1052 is 23600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 1051 is 24000 yuan / ton.

Ex factory price of domestic nitrile rubber as of May 31

Enterprise, Nitrile brand, Ex factory price

Lanzhou Petrochemical, N41., twenty-two thousand and five hundred

Lanzhou Petrochemical, 3305., twenty-two thousand and eight hundred

Lanzhou Petrochemical, 3308., twenty-three thousand and eight hundred

Zhenjiang Nandi, 1051., twenty-four thousand

Zhenjiang Nandi, 1052., twenty-three thousand and six hundred

Sipur, Russia, 2665., twenty-two thousand

Sipur, Russia, 3365., twenty-two thousand and four hundred

In May, the price of raw butadiene rose sharply, the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated slightly, and the cost side was supported. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 31, the price of butadiene was 11274 yuan / ton, up 14.86% from 9816 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of May 31, the price of acrylonitrile was 11460 yuan / ton, down 0.87% from 11560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business club believe that the supply and demand side is weak, but the cost side is supported. It is expected that the price of NBR will continue to fluctuate in the later period.

According to the data monitored by the business club, the domestic carbon black quotation was 10375 yuan / ton on May 31.

From the cost side, this month, domestic high-temperature coal tar is still high, but the market performance is different in different regions. On the whole, the enthusiasm for procurement has decreased significantly. The domestic high-temperature coal tar new order auction is difficult to support, and the new order auction in some regions has a large decline.

On the demand side, the overall performance of downstream demand in the domestic carbon black market continued to be sluggish. Although the tire industry gradually recovered in May, there is still a gap compared with the normal situation. The overall operating load of the industry is low, and the tire manufacturers’ shipments are slow. The tire inventory is high. At the live broadcast conference of China Rubber Industry Association, authoritative data of the tire industry were released. According to the data of the association, from January to April, the production, sales and revenue profits of 10 key tire enterprises showed negative growth, and the inventory increased by 41.4%. Under the background that the comprehensive cost of carbon black enterprises has continued to rise this year, the overall operating load of the carbon black industry has increased compared with last month, and the price has generally increased, the current demand of tire enterprises is weak. There are few new carbon black orders for bidding this month, and most of the new orders are a small amount of replenishment. Tire enterprises also have a certain amount of carbon black inventory. At present, production is mainly based on digesting inventory, and downstream operators are cautious in carbon black procurement.

On the whole, the current domestic carbon black cost is still high, and the current carbon black price is at risk of falling down under the condition of sluggish demand and increased inventory. The future trend depends on the downstream demand.

1、 Price data

According to the data of business news agency, as of May 31, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil was 6446.00 yuan / ton, up 2.16% from 6310.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On May 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 130.55, up 0.2 points from yesterday, down 0.37% from the highest point 131.04 in the cycle (2022-03-24), and up 183.31% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of domestic fuel oil 180CST rose this month, and the high price of domestic marine oil raw materials supported the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of May 31, the price of 180CST self raised low sulfur fuel oil and 120cst self raised low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan area of China National combustion Corporation were 6450 yuan / ton and 6500 yuan / ton respectively; The quotation for 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6350 yuan / ton, and the quotation for 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6450 yuan / ton.

In May, the international crude oil rose violently, the EU oil ban on sanctions against Russia was delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

The increase in fuel oil inventories in Singapore has limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of May 25, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil, including fuel oil and low sulfur wax containing residual oil, increased by 2339000 barrels to 21.106 million barrels; Inventories of light distillates including naphtha, gasoline and reformate increased by 1717000 barrels to 15461000 barrels; The inventory of medium distillate oil decreased by 84000 barrels to 7.285 million barrels.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The rise of international crude oil has boosted the domestic fuel market. The price of raw materials in the domestic ship fuel market is strong, the cost of the ship fuel market is high, the market terminal demand is weak, the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, the wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the overall transaction in the market is light. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6400-6500 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6500-6600 yuan / ton. It is a single discussion. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the domestic PA66 market fell weakly and steadily in May, and the spot prices of various brands fell significantly. As of May 30, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding grade sample enterprises of business club was about 26000 yuan / ton on average, with an increase or decrease of -2.80% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the price of adipic acid in China gradually fell at the end of last month, and the weak market in the early period continued in May. On the demand side, the adipic acid trading is not ideal, the domestic supply is abundant, and the port arrival level is average, so the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The upstream raw material adipic acid market is weak, adiponitrile market is abundant, and PA66 cost side support is poor. In terms of industrial operating rate, it decreased slightly at the beginning of the month, but the load level of domestic PA66 enterprises was still high in May. There is a lot of spot supply on the site, and the profit of PA66 enterprise is under pressure. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, at present, the terminal enterprises tend to follow up with the goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to the high price supply. The impact of domestic health events on East China in this month has not yet ended, and logistics in many places have been affected to varying degrees. The demand of some domestic downstream factories has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and merchants have great resistance to shipping. The turnover on the floor declined, superimposed on the end of the month, and the seller’s mentality was poor, so he let the single operation of profit take the lead.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of business agency, the spot price of PA66 fell in May. The adiponitrile market at the raw material end is weak, and the cost side support of PA66 is poor. The load of PA66 enterprise is high, the on-site supply is sufficient, and the inventory pressure of enterprises and midstream is increasing. The demand side is short of goods, so it is expected that PA66 will be affected by the contradiction between supply and demand and maintain a weak market in the short term.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite was slightly stronger this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3150.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3166.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.53% within the week.

With the gradual recovery of domestic logistics and transportation, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market trading picked up this week. This week, the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3000-3400 yuan / ton, and most of the prices were around 3200 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are only for reference and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details).

Since the beginning of May, the price of domestic soda ash has increased by 6.05%, and the price of sulfur has increased by 13.29%. The price of raw materials has continued to rise. The cost will further support the future market price of sodium pyrosulfite.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of the business club, the market trade rebounded slightly, the raw material cost continued to be high, and the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price will continue to be stable, medium and strong in the short term.

According to the bulk commodity list data of the business agency, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1320.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1300.00 yuan / ton, down 1.52%. The current price fell 7.36% month on month, and the current price fell 10.81% year on year.

formaldehyde

The market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that formaldehyde has mainly fallen in recent two months, and the market continues to decline this week. As of May 26, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1270-1350 yuan / ton. Recently, due to domestic public health incidents, the downstream plate factories have weakened due to the difficulty of cargo transportation, and the demand is low. The inventory in Linyi area is high, the warehouse removal is not smooth, and the market is weak and falling.

Summary of formaldehyde market prices in various regions as of May 26:

Region, Price

East China, 1390 yuan / ton

Central China, 1370 yuan / ton

South China, 1420 yuan / ton

Northwest China, 1300 yuan / ton

Upstream methanol situation: according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic methanol market recently was 2647 yuan / ton, and the market fell. The raw coal price and oil price are strong. The downstream Tianjin Bohai Chemical MTO is expected to be put into operation. At present, the supply side is relatively abundant. Under the current situation, the domestic methanol market may fall in the short term due to the game between supply and demand.

This week, the methanol market fell slightly, the cost support was general, the capacity utilization rate in the formaldehyde field was higher, the inventory increased, the operation of the downstream plate plant was at a low level due to the impact of public safety events, maintaining the rigid demand for procurement, the market trading atmosphere was cold, and the formaldehyde manufacturers took the initiative to reduce the quotation in order to ship, and the market continued to decline.

Recently, the domestic methanol market fluctuated and fell, and the demand of downstream wood panel plants was weak. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society predicted that the recent decline in the price of formaldehyde in Shandong was mainly below.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 25, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11633.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.87% compared with the price on May 20, a decrease of 0.29% compared with the price on April 25, and a year-on-year increase of 1.45% in a three-month cycle.

Recently (5.20-5.25), the propylene oxide market has been in a stalemate, the quotation of enterprises is mainly stable, and the price of some enterprises has increased slightly. Recently, the market of raw material propylene has fallen, the price of raw material liquid chlorine has fallen after rising, the cost support has weakened, the supply side is mainly stable, and the inventory has accumulated slightly and slowly. However, the multi inventory pressure of manufacturers is controllable, which supports the market mentality. The downstream demand is cold, the procurement enthusiasm is weakened, and the market is in a stalemate. On the 25th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 10800-10900 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of propylene was 8200.60 on May 24, a decrease of 2.54% compared with May 1 (8414.60).

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of business society, on May 24, the reference price of propylene glycol was 12733.33, an increase of 12.68% compared with May 1 (11300.00)

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the cost support is weak, the inventory on the supply side is temporarily controllable, and the demand side is cold. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may be deadlocked and weakened in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur in East China rose slightly this week. On May 22, the quotation of sulfur was 4006.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.21% during the week and 9.47% month on month compared with the price of 3920.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The sulfur market continued to rise this week, the domestic supply was still tight, the refinery maintenance was concentrated, the output was limited, the enterprise inventory remained low, and the downstream demand was stable. At the same time, the port sulfur inventory was small, and the price was mainly high, which was good for the support of the sulfur market. The prices of refinery enterprises were sorted up during the week. As of the 22nd, the price of sulfur fixation in refineries in Shandong is between 4000-4100 yuan / ton, and the price range of liquid sulfur is 3900-4000 yuan / ton.

The sulfuric acid market operated weakly and stably this week, and the price trend was stable during the week. The quotation was 1072 yuan / ton on May 22, down 1.83% compared with last weekend. The inventory of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers is general, the downstream demand is weak, and the overall market is weak during the week. The quotation of sulfuric acid manufacturers is reduced according to their own shipment.

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market rose strongly, with an increase of 7.99% in one week. The manufacturer’s inventory was tight, the downstream enterprises just needed to follow up, the supplier’s shipment was smooth, and the price trend of Monoammonium rose. Diammonium rose by 6.04% during the week. The supply of diammonium in the market was tight. Most enterprises suspended quotation and mainly exported orders. The increase of raw material price and the improvement of export supported the high-level operation of diammonium.

According to the sulfur analyst of business society, the supply of domestic sulfur market is tight, the enterprise inventory is low, the downstream demand is stable and positive, coupled with the high support of port sulfur, the operator’s mentality is optimistic. It is expected that the sulfur market will continue to operate strongly in the future, and pay attention to the market follow-up.

1、 Price data

As of May 22, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8180.75 yuan / ton, up 0.31% from 8155.75 yuan / ton on May 16. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8200-8300 yuan / ton.

As of May 22, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8055.00 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with 8055.00 yuan / ton on May 16. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 8100-8200 yuan / ton.

On May 22, the naphtha commodity index was 100.97, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.99% from the highest point of 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 139.04% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fluctuated this week, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the terminal demand was not significantly good, the market transaction was general, and the refinery shipment was positive.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuates, and the market focus has gradually got rid of the fear of demand, and the focus has gradually returned to the expectation of supply tightening. The short-term market is still affected by the expected impact of EU sanctions on Russian oil exports, and oil prices are strongly supported. The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) warned that the market would see more than 7 million barrels of Russian oil and other liquid oil export losses per day. As the ability of many oil producing countries in the world to increase production rapidly is limited, the oil price may remain high in the foreseeable future, and the crude oil market price is strongly supported. Especially at present, the epidemic still plays a role, and the future demand may become the biggest constraint on the oil price. Of course, under the background of the Russian Ukrainian war, Russia’s oil supply is affected by intensive Western sanctions. The current situation is more complex. The impact of oil prices from the supply side will play a role in the long term to further offset the negative impact of the demand side.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, toluene rose broadly this week. The price was 7540 yuan / ton on May 13 and 7860 yuan / ton on May 20, up 4.24% from last week. The price of mixed xylene rose this week. The price was 7660 yuan / ton on May 13 and 7810 yuan / ton on May 20, up 1.96% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of p-xylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9900 yuan / ton, up 6.45% from 9300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the international crude oil price fluctuates, the naphtha market is generally traded, and the terminal is not significantly good. The market just needs procurement, and the market has strong wait-and-see mood. At present, there is procurement demand for local refining and reorganization, and it is expected that the local refining naphtha may rise slightly in the near future.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite was strong this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 3133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3150 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.53% during the week.

The overall performance of domestic sodium pyrosulfite market this week is acceptable. The market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 2900-3400 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated near 3100-3200 yuan / ton. The enterprise inventory is about 30%, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact manufacturers for details).

Since the beginning of May, the price of domestic soda ash has increased by 2.33% and the price of sulfur has increased by 11.71%. The continuous rise in the price of upstream raw materials will further support the market price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the cost of raw materials continues to rise, the downstream demand is stable as a whole, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to be stable, medium and strong in the short term.