Recently, the engineering plastics market has been negative. According to the data monitored by the business society, the decline of various engineering plastics varieties expanded during June. As of June 29, compared with the beginning of the month, the decline of each product from high to low was pc-13.16%, pa66-8.74%, pa6-4.88%, pom+0.16% and pet+2.19%. The off-season market in the domestic market is gradually unfolding, and the price is almost green across the board. Although there were positive factors such as the easing of health incidents in East China and the reduction of the purchase tax on some passenger vehicles launched by relevant departments during the month, it was difficult to reverse the weak demand of the industry in the off-season. In addition, the domestic logistics freight has risen with the oil price, and the upstream chemical raw materials have fallen with the international crude oil, so that both manufacturers and traders have fallen into the dilemma of left-hand cost bearing and right-hand profit giving.
2、 Market analysis
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PC
Among brother products, PC fell the most this month. It is reasonable to say that the PC market has weakened for a long time, and there is still such a decline in the near future. The reason is that the fundamentals have been weak for a long time. In terms of raw materials, bisphenol a still had a driving force at the beginning of the month, but it was difficult to smooth out the sluggish terminal demand. During the month, with the weakening of inventory pressure and cost, the whole industrial chain was released, and the bisphenol a market fell below 14000 yuan / ton. The decline of upstream bisphenol a market reduced the cost support of PC. In terms of industry load, due to the pressure on the supply side due to the resumption of some units in western Shandong, the inventory of enterprises and midstream was high in June, and the supply side lacked support for spot goods. The remote upstream international crude oil also fell due to the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and other reasons. The downstream demand is weak, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is limited due to various factors, and the goods taking situation is poor. The floor gradually entered the trading mode of “price for volume”, the market transaction was cold, the mentality of buyers buying up but not buying down spread, and the offer made a substantial profit.
PA66
Similarly, PA66 has been weakening in the medium and long term. It seems that the last time the terminal enterprises were overdrawn by the scenery, or the long return of the price market. PA66 has been falling all the way since the peak season last year. In this month, the average offer price of PA66 sample enterprises of business agency fell by 8.74% and the spot price position came below 23500 yuan / ton. The main bad news is that the industry is deeply involved in the long-term contradiction between supply and demand, the spot supply in the market is abundant, the inventory pressure is difficult to solve, and the profit of PA66 enterprise continues to be under pressure. The terminal enterprises’ follow-up in taking goods tends to just need to maintain production. In addition, due to the low operating rate in the off-season, the consumption of PA66 is lower, the demand is further shrinking, and there is a strong resistance to the high price supply. On site supply exceeds demand, merchants have great resistance to shipment, and are forced to exchange profits for quantity. At present, it is difficult for PA66 to get out of the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term, and it is expected that the weak market will continue.
In addition, news about the completion of domestic PA66 and its important raw material adiponitrile production line also impacted the market. Compared with the periodic bad situation of the contradiction between supply and demand, the capacity expansion and the improvement of the industrial chain may have a more far-reaching impact on the domestic PA66 pricing.
PA6
PA6 fluctuated in the first and middle of this month, and the decline was concentrated in the last ten days, but in fact, the domestic market has been weak since the middle of this month. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant was generally stable at 70% in this month. The supply side of PA6 is relatively abundant, and the profits of production enterprises are under pressure. In terms of news, the tension between Russia and Ukraine remained, and the international crude oil price began to weaken due to the Fed’s interest rate hike, which immediately affected the sharp decline of pure benzene and caprolactam in the upstream of the industrial chain. Although the supply of direct upstream caprolactam decreased, it failed to smooth out the bad guidance. In the second half of the month, the supporting and conducting effect on PA6 cost end collapsed. The load of downstream enterprises fell. As the market entered the off-season, the demand slowed down. The purchaser shall take the goods carefully and maintain the production of small orders. The on-site trading shrank, and it is expected that the trend of PA6 market may still weaken in the short term.
POM
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As a typical example of insufficient arrival of overseas cargoes under the influence of international health events, the domestic POM market has been able to operate at a high level. At the beginning of June, even the high level rose slightly. The small callback in late June seemed to be a narrow adjustment, but in fact, the market has been weak. In the first half of the month, due to the maintenance of some POM enterprises at the end of May and the rise of upstream formaldehyde and methanol, the cost support of the on-site supply side was acceptable. However, the operating rate of terminal enterprises has gradually entered the off-season mode. Generally, due to profit or order problems, the operating rate has gradually narrowed. The purchasing operation is cautious and mainly takes small orders. Some bargain hunting operations have reduced some low-end offers and lifted the spot price. Although the current spot is temporarily stable, the consumption of on-site inventory is slow. Under the condition that the supply side remains abundant and the consumption is weak, it cannot be ruled out that the POM price is stable and weak in the short term.
PET
According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of water bottle PET rose and fell in June. Although the overall spot price increased by 2.19% compared with the beginning of the month, compared with the high point of 9850 yuan / ton on June 10, the price position of 9340 yuan / ton on June 29 fully reversed the increase of five percentage points. At the end of the month, the market operating rate was normal, the manufacturer actively offered profits for shipment, and the inquiry atmosphere was ok, but the overall market trading was weak. The willingness of downstream goods preparation is general, and ethylene glycol support on the cost side is not strong. It is expected that the pet market will operate in a narrow range and weak in the short term.
Aftermarket forecast
The market of engineering plastics fell in June, and it seems that it is difficult to compare with each other horizontally. In terms of vertical year-on-year comparison, according to the data monitored by the business community over the years, it is not difficult to predict some trends of the next industry. The current season is already in midsummer, followed by an increase in shutdown and maintenance of production units of polymerization enterprises. It is reported that the power supply across the country is stable this year, and the peak shifting production may be reduced compared with previous years. The expected reduction in supply may not smooth out the impact of weak demand in the traditional off-season. The load of household appliances, automobiles and other industries is lower, and the orders for engineering plastics are reduced. In the short term, it may be difficult to find a breakthrough point from the downstream. It is suggested to focus on the international crude oil and the upstream product market of various industrial chains.
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