According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated and fell this week. From July 7th to July 14th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 8600 yuan/ton to 9166 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.59% during the cycle. The domestic butadiene market has fluctuated upward in this cycle, with low port inventory and slightly tight supply in recent times. With the increase in auction premium transactions of main refineries, the mentality of the spot market has strengthened, driving market quotations to rise all the way. From the demand side, downstream companies have shown good intentions to replenish inventory in the near future, which provides some support for market sentiment. As of July 14th, the self pickup price in East China is around 9100 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect: The international crude oil market has mainly fluctuated within the range of this cycle, with frequent fluctuations and limited impact on downstream markets. Market influencing factors have returned to the supply and demand side. As of July 11th, the settlement price of the August contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.45 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September is $70.36 per barrel.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 9200 yuan/ton, with an increase of 300 yuan/ton this week.
The 160000 tons/year butadiene unit of Fushun Petrochemical is operating normally and there are no plans for export at the moment.
Demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of butadiene rubber has slightly increased recently. As of July 11th, the price of Shunding rubber by PetroChina East China Sales Company has been raised by 300 yuan/ton: Dushanzi Shunding reported 11700 yuan/ton, Daqing Shunding reported 11700 yuan/ton, Sichuan Shunding reported 11700 yuan/ton, and the East China warehouse has raised prices.
Market forecast: The recent crude oil trend has been volatile, with insufficient guidance for the butadiene market and minimal impact. This week’s trend is mainly influenced by supply and demand. From the supply side perspective, some domestic facilities have undergone maintenance, and there have been few recent ship arrivals, leading to slightly tight market expectations for supply. On the demand side, the overall downstream demand tends to be rigid, and downstream consumers have a strong resistance to high priced raw materials. Overall, it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to face significant upward resistance, with a mainly range oscillation trend.