According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of January 21, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2210 yuan/ton. Overall, the domestic methanol market performance was poor, and the price fell 33.70% compared with the same period last year.
II. Market Analysis
Products: Domestic methanol performance is not good, ports and the mainland are showing a downward trend. Among them, the port period is now maintained linkage, and the recent arrival of ships and cargo is concentrated, the stock accumulation is obvious, based on the general demand-side follow-up, the short-term de-inventory is still facing certain problems; the mainland continues regional trend, at present, methanol plant construction is more than 70%, the market supply is relatively adequate, near the Spring Festival holidays, Enterprises intend to drain warehouses, more profit sales, North China, Shandong decline by 10-50 yuan/ Tons vary, some enterprises can talk about the list.
Industry chain: formaldehyde: raw material finishing is the main, formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been light in recent days, the market has not changed much, part of the construction began to decline. At present, Linyi is around 1080-1100 yuan/ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas are around 1200-1300 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic market of glacial acetic acid is stable. Downstream stockpiling intention is gradually decreasing and buying intention is cautious. Inventory pressure of enterprises has decreased, and the pressure of individual shipments is slightly obvious. Dimethyl ether: When end-users enter the market for purchasing, the seller actively pushes up, but the end-users’inventory digestion is slow. It is expected that the domestic market for dimethyl ether will increase by a limited margin in a short time.
3. Future Market Forecast
Business Cooperatives: On the positive side, raw materials: in winter heating period, the demand of coal and natural gas market is still acceptable, the price is relatively stable, which provides cost support for methanol; olefins: methanol price is at a low level, and the economic recovery of olefins is still acceptable, pay attention to domestic shutdown MTO picking and restarting operations; freight: winter weather, transportation inconvenience, freight maintenance at a high level. Macroscopic aspect: The State Council further pushed for inclusive tax reduction to reduce the burden of small and micro enterprises. On the negative side, futures: poor performance of futures has a certain impact on the spot market; supply: more than 70% of the equipment has been started, and the market supply is relatively sufficient at present, there is a certain contradiction between supply and demand; port: it is known that the recent arrival of ports is relatively abundant, cargo concentrated in port, stock accumulation; depot: near the end of recent years, depot expectancy, some enterprises will sell profitably; demand side: department: Traditional downstream construction is inadequate, demand continues to weaken, and terminal demand consumption is slow. Methanol analysts at business associations predict that short-term domestic methanol market or narrow-band consolidation will dominate.