According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of February 18, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2280 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market was narrowly higher.
II. Market Analysis
Products: Last week, the domestic methanol market showed different performances. Although the inventory of the mainland factories increased, the overall pre-sale volume was better. Last week, it maintained a good state of suspension. It is expected that this week’s new price will be adjusted to varying degrees. However, we need to pay attention to the upstream transmission of freight changes. We also need to hear about the test run of Hengli methanol plant near the weekend and pay attention to the impact on the mainland market. On the port side, stocks increased and futures fell sharply in the second half of last week, which suppressed spot declines. To a certain extent, the base spread strengthened. However, the good news of Sino-US trade talks or good support for futures and stock markets emerged over the weekend, and attention was paid to macroeconomic transmission of fundamentals.
Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: At present, some formaldehyde factories in Linyi have returned to the market, but the raw material methanol is weak, so formaldehyde in Shandong is mainly wait-and-see finishing, and the market atmosphere is still light. Zibo and its surrounding prices are around 1150-1200 yuan/ton; Linyi is around 1080-1100 yuan/ton, focusing on the plant dynamics of manufacturers in the region. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market is rising steadily. Henan enterprises are oversold and can be sold in a tight situation, so the offer continues to rise and individual enterprises close. Eastern China market followed the upward trend. Export offer prices rose to varying degrees, and intra-venue traders were active. The inventory of enterprises in North China is not high, and there is an intention to push up. Downstream, large downstream is relatively stable, and the recovery of small and medium downstream needs time. Dimethyl ether: End-users concentrate on delisting and digesting inventory, the domestic dimethyl ether market continues to rise momentum is obviously insufficient, the overall trend tends to be rational; in the short term, the seller’s inventory and sales pressure increase slowly, and the overall trend of the domestic dimethyl ether market will weaken in the near future.
3. Future Market Forecast
Business Cooperatives: On the positive side, downstream: after the festival, the downstream part of the downstream gradually recovered, and the demand for partial replenishment gradually increased; domestic installations: near March and April, the “spring inspection” of domestic methanol production installations will be launched one after another to support the supply side, such as Rongxin and Jiutai; foreign installations: recently, the parking/follow-up repair of some International installations is relatively concentrated, and the subsequent local supply side stock shrinkage is expected. 。 On the negative side, demand: in the first week after the Spring Festival, the traditional downstream recovery is slow, and transportation capacity has not been fully restored yet, substantial volume is limited; inventory: affected by the Spring Festival holidays, port inventory continues to grow, some methanol enterprises in the Mainland have high inventories, and some Iranian shipments still have arrival plans, need to pay attention to inventory changes; negative side: Southwest gas recovery ahead of schedule, affecting Southwest and Southwest China Peripheral market. Methanol analysts at business associations expect the domestic methanol market to continue to rise in the short term.
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