In 2025, the overall trichloromethane market in China showed a fluctuating downward trend, with a slight rebound towards the end of the year
From January to February at the beginning of the year, the maintenance and supply of trichloromethane equipment in some enterprises were tight. In addition, downstream enterprises restarted their quotas at the beginning of the year, and downstream stocking was active, resulting in short-term concentrated release of demand. As a result, the price of trichloromethane skyrocketed to 2800 yuan/ton.
From March to July, on the one hand, new production capacity was gradually released, while the demand for the core downstream refrigerant R22 continued to be weak, leading to a sharp increase in supply pressure. Enterprise inventories remained high, and the price of trichloromethane fell to the lowest of 1533 yuan/ton this year.
From August to October, on the one hand, the price of methanol raw materials weakened, and the cost support of trichloromethane collapsed; On the other hand, downstream demand is weak and prices are weakly declining. During this period, some companies underwent brief maintenance to alleviate supply pressure, which to some extent eased the downward pressure on prices.
The tightening of regional supply and low inventory levels in November and December, coupled with the release of some demand at the end of the year, have driven prices to stop falling and slightly rebound. The price of trichloromethane has rebounded to around 1966 yuan/ton.
The price fluctuation of trichloromethane in 2025 is mainly affected by the following factors:
1. Supply pressure continues to increase: By 2025, new production capacity will be released in the industry, and the overall supply level will improve. Meanwhile, as an important “chlorine consuming” product, the methane chloride plant maintains a high operating rate even when operating at a loss, exacerbating the situation of oversupply in the market. The first phase of the 200000/ton methane chloride unit of Hunan Hengyang Jindong Technology Co., Ltd. was put into trial operation at the end of March 2025 and achieved stable operation in October 2025. The average annual operating rate of methane chloride in China in 2025 is around 7.8%, with relatively low centralized maintenance and operation of large factories in the first and fourth quarters, and relatively high operation in the peak season of the second and third quarters.
2. The downstream demand structure is single and weak: over 90% of the demand for trichloromethane relies on refrigerant R22. However, the quota for R22 in 2025 has been reduced, and its terminal demand (such as fluoropolymers) has performed poorly, resulting in low enthusiasm for enterprise production and weak support for the procurement of raw material trichloromethane.
3. Constraints of cost and loss: Cost determines the “bottom”: When the market price of chloroform falls below or exceeds the cost line of “methanol+manufacturing costs”, enterprises without supporting advantages will fall into cash losses, be forced to reduce production or stop production, thereby providing rigid bottom support for prices. From the overall trend of trichloromethane in 2025, the price dropped to around 1533 yuan/ton in June and July 2025, reaching this bottom line. Overall, when demand is still acceptable, cost fluctuations can be effectively transmitted to selling prices. When demand is severely insufficient, cost can only define the bottom of price decline and the depth of losses, and cannot drive a trend upward trend.

Market Outlook for 2026
Overall, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to operate under pressure in 2026, and there will be no trending upward trend
On the supply side, the pattern of overcapacity is expected to continue. The slight increase in methane chloride production capacity in 2025 means that there will not be many new methane chloride plants added in the future. Currently, only Gansu Juhua New Materials Co., Ltd. has a 760000 tons/year methane chloride plant to be built. The expected production of trichloromethane in 2026 is about 1.05-11 million tons, with an operating rate of 70-75%. Overall loose supply
In terms of demand, the quota for the core downstream refrigerant R22 continues to be compressed, resulting in a 3-5% decrease in demand and a decrease in its proportion from 45% in 2025 to 40-42% in 2026. Its demand growth space is limited, and it will continue to be a key factor restricting the trichloromethane market. The growth of market demand will rely more on fluorinated polymer materials (such as PTFE), fourth generation new refrigerants (such as HFOs), and fine chemical industries such as pharmaceutical and pesticide intermediates.
Price trend: With the expectation of abundant supply, the overall price center of gravity may be difficult to rise significantly, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. The fluctuation range of its price will be affected by specific factors such as changes in the cost of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine, as well as downstream stage replenishment demand. Overall, the bottom line of trichloromethane prices in 2026 will still be constrained by costs. The central price range for methanol in 2026 may be between 2100-2300 yuan/ton, while the price for liquid chlorine may be between 50-250 yuan/ton. The bottom line support for trichloromethane costs will continue. In addition, due to supply and demand maintenance and other factors, it is expected that the price of trichloromethane will fluctuate between 1800 and 2300 yuan/ton in 2026.