1、 Market situation:
Recently, the domestic acrylic acid market has indeed shown typical characteristics of “supply and demand game, stability maintenance and consolidation”. The market shows stable prices, but there are different pressures and supports on both the supply and demand sides. As of January 6th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 5850.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
2、 Supply and demand ends:
The current market deadlock is the result of the balance of power between supply and demand
Supply side:
The industry’s operating rate is not only high, but also the price trend has been stable since early January, which has brought abundant spot resources to the market and is the main factor suppressing price increases.
Demand side:
The core support of the market only comes from the rigid demand procurement of downstream users. Due to issues such as slow capital collection in the terminal fields (such as coatings and textiles), there is generally low interest in traditional “winter storage” stocking before the Spring Festival, and most purchases are made in small quantities and on demand. This has led to a sluggish overall trading atmosphere in the market, which cannot provide upward momentum for prices.
Cost side:
The prices of propylene and n-butanol, the main upstream raw materials, have been steadily rising recently, and the overall cost support for acrylic acid is still acceptable but lacks strong driving force, failing to break the balance of supply and demand game. As of January 6th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 5744.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% compared to the beginning of this month (5717.67 yuan/ton).
On January 6th, the benchmark price of n-butanol (industrial grade) in Shengyi Society was 5633.33 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.
3、 Future outlook:
Overall, the market is expected to maintain a narrow consolidation trend in the short term. The combination of high supply and weak stocking demand creates a “ceiling” for price increases. The current high demand and high costs have also set a “floor” for prices, making it difficult for them to fall deeply.
The key points for the future are whether the downstream stocking pace before the Spring Festival will be activated due to the passage of time, and whether there will be unexpected adjustments in the supply side’s operating rate. These two points will be the main variables that break the current balance and guide the market direction.