According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from April 21st to 25th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2415 yuan/ton to 2418 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.10% during the period, a month on month decrease of 9.40%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.40%. The recent demand for pre holiday stocking of methanol downstream in mainland China has provided some support for the market atmosphere, with smooth shipments from enterprises. However, there is still a wait-and-see attitude towards high prices, and market price changes are limited.

As of the close on April 25th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2288 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2302 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2277 yuan/ton. It closed at 2288 yuan/ton in the closing session, up 2% or 0.09% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 472101 lots, the position is 662561 lots, and the daily increase is 4749 lots.
In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly and steadily recently. Most of the coal mines in the main production area are producing and selling normally, while some coal mines have temporarily stopped production due to equipment failures, and the overall supply has remained stable. At present, the release of downstream demand is limited, and enterprise procurement tends to be cautious. The market’s wait-and-see sentiment is beginning to heat up, and coal prices will maintain a fluctuating and weak trend in the short term. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: expected increase in acetic acid demand; Downstream chlorides: The restart of the early load reduction device for chlorides has increased the demand for methanol; Downstream dimethyl ether: Increased demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand decreases; There is currently no maintenance or restart device for formaldehyde, and the demand fluctuation is not significant. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side, partial device maintenance; Partial device restoration. The overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external markets, as of the close of April 24th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $339.50-340.50 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 88.00-89.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 269.50-270.50 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.
Market forecast: As the May Day holiday approaches, there will be a partial release of replenishment demand for traditional downstream demand, and the planned maintenance of MTO facilities in North China will lead to a decline in industry consumption. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.