This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market has declined and the market performance has been sluggish. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong Province fell by 2.39% this week (1.19-23). The main reason is the abundant supply of ammonia, which affects market circulation due to rainy and snowy weather in the north. In addition, the recovery of some ammonia facilities has led to an increase in supply, but market demand is weak. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is 2250-2400 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, this week’s supply continued to increase compared to last week. The production of liquid ammonia in Shandong and Hebei regions remained stable, while supply from facilities in Anhui, Jiangsu and other regions resumed, resulting in an increase in ammonia supply. Due to the impact of snow in some areas of Shandong, Northwest China, and Inner Mongolia, transportation is restricted, resulting in the accumulation of inventory in enterprise warehouses. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some companies in northern regions have made downward adjustments, while large factories in Shandong region have generally adjusted prices within the range of 100 yuan. The market has shown oversupply, and companies still have expectations of resuming work in the later stage. Supply may continue to increase in the later stage.
From the demand side perspective, downstream demand has been sluggish, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level. In some downstream areas, phosphate fertilizer enterprises have been affected by environmental protection, resulting in a continuous decline in operating rates and relatively weak demand. Recently, the shipment volume of urea has contracted and prices have mainly declined. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly decline of urea is 1.27%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the supply and demand pressure in the liquid ammonia market is expected to continue next week, mainly due to the impact of the expected resumption of plant work, and there are still supply risks in the market. However, there may be room for improvement in agricultural demand, and there are signs of a rebound in the operating rate of downstream products such as monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate. The game between supply and demand will strengthen in the later stage, and the market for feed ammonia may not improve. It is expected that the range will mainly fluctuate.