1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic soda ash market is weak. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1446 yuan / ton, while that at the weekend was 1400 yuan / ton. The price fell by 3.18%, 10.26% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of light soda ash on December 20 was 71.79, unchanged with yesterday, down 39.09% from the highest point of 117.86 (2017-11-21) and 13.68% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the atmosphere of domestic soda ash market is light, and downstream manufacturers are cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The price of soda ash in Central China is weak. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1200-1300 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general. The overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable in the short term. The price of soda ash in North China is weak. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1400-1500 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is general. The overall downstream manufacturers are cautious. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable in the short term.

Raw materials: this week, the domestic crude salt trading atmosphere is relatively stable, more continuation of the early price trend. The supply of well and mineral salt manufacturers is stable, the lake salt market continues to operate stably, and the supply is stable; the purchase of sea salt market declines slightly.

Demand: glass prices have risen in recent weeks. In Shahe of North China, the inventory of production enterprises is low, the overall trend of the spot market is relatively stable, and the market transaction price has also increased by a certain extent, with an increase of 0.5-0.8 yuan / m2. The market demand in East China is good, the inventory of production enterprises is low, the number of glass imported from other ports in East China decreases, and the price of local enterprises rises by 0.7-2.2 yuan / m2. In South China, manufacturers’ prices rose by 1-2 yuan / m2. Traders and processing enterprises purchased on demand, and glass demand remained at a normal level. The overall trend of glass spot market in Central China is good, and the prices of manufacturers have increased by about 1.5 yuan / m2. The overall trend of the spot market of glass in Southwest China is general, and the price of manufacturers has not been raised much, with an increase of about 0.7 yuan / m2. In Northeast China, local demand is weakening. At present, manufacturers are exporting to North China and East China, and the quotation is slightly increased, with an increase of 0.5-0.8 yuan / m2. The overall trend of glass spot market in Northwest China is general, and the price of manufacturers has increased slightly, with an increase of 0.5-0.8 yuan / m2.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 50th week of 2020 (12.14-12.18), there are 1 commodity rising, 3 falling and 1 commodity falling to 0. The main commodities that rose were calcium carbide (5.91%), light soda ash (- 3.18%), hydrochloric acid (- 0.81%) and PVC (- 0.44%). This week, all rose or fell 0.3%.

Business agency analysts believe that: soda ash market performance is weak, manufacturers’ prices have been close to the cost line, some manufacturers have reached the cost line. When the downstream manufacturers of glass have increased but need to purchase, traders hold a wait-and-see attitude, market prices follow the market. According to the comprehensive forecast, the weak operation of domestic soda ash market in the short term is given priority to.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of December 18, the comprehensive price of PC market was 21666.67 yuan / ton. This week, the PC market was in a weak position. The focus of negotiation moved down, the purchasing atmosphere was cold, and most manufacturers lowered their prices, which dropped by 5.80% compared with the beginning of December. The upstream raw material support was insufficient, and the PC market was expected to continue to be weak.

This week, the domestic PC market transaction atmosphere is cold, the price continues to be weak, manufacturers cut prices one after another, downstream cautious wait-and-see, slow shipment, the overall market is in a flat, just need to order, the spot supply side is normal, the enterprise operating rate is normal, the inventory side is normal, the current delivery is smooth, the good factors are insufficient, the raw material market is weak, the support for PC cost side is insufficient, PC market is weak The market as a whole is pessimistic, and the willingness to reduce prices is increasing.

The upstream bisphenol a market is in a weak position. The price reference is 17700-17800 yuan / ton. The actual orders are actually discussed. The delivery is slow. The contract users just need to purchase. The number of new orders is scarce. The overall market is weak. The downstream market is mainly wait-and-see. The transaction atmosphere is cold and stable in the short term.

On December 17, the rubber and plastic index was 736 points, down 3 points compared with yesterday, 30.57% lower than 1060 point (2012-03-14), and 39.39% higher than 528 point, the lowest point on April 6, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

PC analysts believe that: PC is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term, mainly narrow shock finishing. (the above prices are provided by major PC manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business PC analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, the plasticizer DOP price fell first and then rose in December. As of December 16, the average price of DOP was 10266.67 yuan / ton, which was 5.12% higher than that at the beginning of the month. The DOP price is affected by the rise of raw material price, showing a sharp rise.

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the octanol price trend chart that the octanol price rose sharply after falling in December. The overall octanol market rose sharply in December, with DOP cost rising and DOP rising momentum being greater.

Downstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the PVC price trend chart that PVC prices fluctuated and stabilized after a sharp rise in December. PVC price rise, DOP demand warming, DOP rise support larger, plasticizer DOP market is good.

Market review and future expectation

Business agency DOP data analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that downstream, PVC market rose in December, DOP demand rose, DOP market is good. In terms of raw materials, the decline of phthalic anhydride price offset the good support of PVC rise; however, with the sudden rise of octanol price, it became the last straw to crush DOP, and DOP price rose sharply. In the future, DOP raw material octanol price rises, phthalic anhydride price falls, DOP cost is basically stable, DOP rise support is insufficient, PVC market is stable, DOP rising momentum is insufficient, it is expected that DOP market will be strong and stable.

After the second week of December, the average price of domestic metal silicon (441) market basically kept stable.

According to the data of business agency, on December 15, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 14283.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.12% compared with the average market price of 14300 yuan / ton last Friday (12.4); compared with the average market price of 13925 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (12.1), the average market price was 10491.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 36.14%; compared with the average market price of (1.1) at the beginning of the year, 11833.33 yuan / ton 70%.

On the 15th, the prices of 441 silicon in different regions were as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 13700-13900 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13900-14100 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 14000-14100 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 15000-15200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin port is 14300-14500 yuan / ton, and that in Huangpu port is 14300-14400 yuan / ton 。

Social inventory moves down, both quantity and price rise in the early stage

Due to the influence of power rationing, the operating rate of silicon metal manufacturers in Yunnan Province has moved down, reducing part of their production capacity. In addition, the external purchasing volume increased in the early stage, the export market turned better, the market trading was vigorous, and the social inventory moved down. The volume and price rose in November.

At present, the export side purchase volume tends to be flat, the long short game is intensified, and the price tends to be stable.

Future forecast

The rise of downstream price will benefit the price of raw materials to a certain extent; superimposed on the short-term spot price, it is expected that the metal silicon price will be stable in the near future.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber decreased slightly during the week (12.7-12.11), with the price at 11670.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 11390.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 2.40% as a whole.

This week (12.7-12.11), the ex factory price of domestic cis-1,4-butadiene rubber and petrochemical manufacturers was reduced by 200 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of December 11, the ex warehouse price of Daqing cis-1,3-butadiene of Northeast Sales Company of CNPC was implemented at 11300 yuan / ton; the price of cis-1,3-butadiene rubber of Sinopec North China sales company was stable, Qilu Shunding was quoted as 11300 yuan / T, and Huabei warehouse raised the price; Yanshan Shunding company offered 11220 yuan / T, and Huabei warehouse raised the price.

The supply side of Shunding market is basically stable. On the one hand, the operating rate of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China increased slightly this week. According to the business association, the start-up load of Yanshan gaoshunding has returned to normal recently, while Wanda Shunding plant has continued to shut down. On the other hand, the traffic in Northeast China gradually recovered after the snow, and the supply of Shunding in Daqing was normal, and the supply of domestic Shunding market was restored this week.

Raw material prices fell this week, the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber support weakened. As of December 11, the butadiene price was 9490 yuan / ton, down 3.71% from 9856 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, according to the business agency.

On the demand side, at present, the downstream tire operating rate continues to maintain above 70%, and the tire raw material storage period is around 20 days, which still has strong support for BR.

Aftermarket forecast: business agency analysts believe that at present, the price of raw material butadiene falls, but the downstream demand has certain support, and it is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

Domestic cyclohexanone market rose this week after finishing. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 6700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 6816 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price increased by 1.74% during the week, increased by 16.03% month on month, and decreased by 5.1% year-on-year.

Within the week, Sinopec listed its pure benzene twice, increasing 300 yuan / ton to 4600 yuan / ton. Under the support of cost, the offer of cyclohexanone factory was raised to 7200 yuan / ton. Although the downstream caprolactam Sinopec was raised by 300 yuan to 11500 yuan / ton, the enthusiasm of external cyclohexanone extraction was not so positive, the solvent was purchased on demand, the delivery rate of cyclohexanone slowed down, the market supply was abundant, and the general transaction atmosphere was general.

Price summary of cyclohexanone by Region:

Region, price

7450-7550 yuan / ton in East China

In South China, 7450-7550 yuan / ton is delivered in cash

7300-7400 yuan / ton in Shandong Province

From the perspective of supply and demand, the short-term commercial volume of cyclohexanone is stable, the downstream chemical fiber and solvent market demand is general, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is relatively strong. Coupled with the recent restart of Shandong Haili and Zhejiang Juhua plans, the spot supply of caprolactam may be alleviated to a certain extent, and the cost support is weak. Business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the short-term market of cyclohexanone is mainly sorted out.

During the week (11.30-12.4), the price of nitrile rubber remained high. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of nitrile rubber on November 30 was 19233.33 yuan / ton, and on December 4, it was 19300.00 yuan / ton. The price continued to maintain a high level with a slight increase of 0.35%.

First of all, the ex factory price of NBR in China is basically stable. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of December 4, the price of NBR in Lanzhou Petrochemical Company was stable: at present, the price of NBR in n41e was 17300 yuan / ton; in 3305e, it was 17900 yuan / ton; in 3308e, it was 18800 yuan / ton; in Ningbo shunze, the ex factory price of NBR was stable, at present, the NBR of 3355 factory was 18600 yuan / ton.

Secondly, the price of raw materials remains high, and the cost side is still strongly supported. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of December 4, the butadiene price was 9856 yuan / ton; as of December 4, the ex factory price of acrylonitrile Shanghai Secco was 13000 yuan / ton. The prices of raw materials are in the high stage.

Finally, the epidemic situation in foreign countries is becoming more and more serious. The number of confirmed cases and deaths continues to increase. The demand for medical nitrile rubber latex gloves is still strong, resulting in the tight supply of nitrile rubber, which forms a strong support for the whole nitrile market.

Aftermarket forecast: NBR analysts believe that the high price of raw materials, coupled with strong downstream demand, NBR prices will continue to remain high in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of potassium chloride rose this week. This week, the average price of mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride rose from 2125.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2160 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 35 yuan / ton or 1.65%. Overall, potassium chloride market rose this week, and the potassium chloride commodity index on December 4 was 68.57.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride Rose: the factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was 2020 yuan / ton, which was 70 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the marketing quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride at weekend was 2300 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. Overall, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is mainly on demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

The overall trend or high consolidation of potassium chloride Market in mid early December. The market of potassium chloride is facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock in Hong Kong, the weak demand and the downward trend of international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Potassium chloride analysts of the business club believe that the short-term potassium chloride market is mainly composed of high-level consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8570 yuan / ton, 1.42% higher than the price of 8450 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.73%.

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price has risen slightly. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is 8000-8500 yuan / ton, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is mainly higher. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is slightly tight, and the on-site price is rising slightly.

First of all, the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite is stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic fluorite price is 2616.67 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite is sufficient, and the on-site shipment is not positive, and the price trend of fluorite is stable. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations was 2500-2700 yuan / ton. The stable price of fluorite in the field was the cost support of hydrofluoric acid market. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market price went up due to the shortage of supply.

The market of domestic refrigerants rose slightly this week. In recent years, the sales market of automobile industry is general, and the market of refrigerants has improved. The trend of refrigerant industry is general, and the market of various types of refrigerants has slightly increased. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, and the sales pressure is large. The growth rate of raw material hydrofluoric acid is limited, and the support force is general. The export volume of refrigerants has little change and the downstream is empty Adjusted output is low, demand is scarce, after-sales market off-season effect continues, refrigerant prices rise little. On the whole, the refrigerant market is generally supported by favorable factors, the price continues to be low or will become normal, and the transaction center of gravity remains low. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price remains at a low level. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual delivery of goods is not smooth. The actual transaction center of gravity is slightly increased, and some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiation is 13000-15500 yuan / ton. The domestic R134a market trend rose slightly, but the auto market industry continued to be depressed and the transaction atmosphere was light. There is sufficient supply of goods in the market, and there are new production capacity entering the market in the future market. The competition is fierce. The supply side gradually forms a negative situation, and the price rises slightly. However, the downstream demand does not significantly improve, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rises slightly.

Third, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is slightly tight, and the hydrofluoric acid market price has risen slightly due to the partial maintenance of hydrofluoric acid devices in the field. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 8000-8500 yuan / ton, while the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 8000-8800 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has not changed a lot. Some manufacturers report that hydrofluoric acid exists in the cracks, some manufacturers still have losses, and the stock market is still poor.

On the whole, due to the little change in the price of raw material fluorite, the prices of downstream refrigerant products have risen slightly. In addition, the on-site spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is slightly tight due to the recent overhaul of some domestic hydrofluoric acid units. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in the business agency, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise slightly.

According to the statistics of the business agency, on November 30, the average spot market price of 32S polyester yarn in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai was about 13375 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.03%. The downstream market prepared goods for the new year, but the orders for the shopping festival were gradually completed, the follow-up orders were weak, the loom started to decline, and the inventory of polyester yarn enterprises increased month on month.

Recently, the transaction of yarn market is flat, and the purchase and sales tend to be cautious. The epidemic situation repeatedly causes the market to worry about the demand. The market uncertainty factors are large. The export orders are slightly weak in recent years. Compared with the same period in previous years, the number of double order varieties is obviously delayed. Due to the influence of European epidemic situation, some orders of early proofing varieties are also delayed. Orders are mainly in small batches, and new orders are few. In the market of medium and high count yarn, the factory list is full, and the price has not been reduced. Some prices have been raised. The price of coarse yarn has dropped a lot, so the factory will purchase on demand.

The cost side is good for support, and the recent continuous rise of crude oil is good for market production and sales, and the stronger upstream raw material price forms a strong support for the cost. Staple fiber spot production and sales hot, a small number of manufacturers quoted a small increase. Only a small number of manufacturers are willing to pay about RMB 5.50-5.5 tons of staple fiber, and only a small number of manufacturers are willing to pay about RMB 5.50-5.5 tons of staple fiber. In the futures market, staple fiber Futures (2105) closed higher at 6096, up 90, or 1.5%, from Friday. The rise of crude oil and PTA rebound led to the rebound of polyester staple fiber futures, and the rebound of futures led to a sharp recovery of spot production and sales. However, affected by demand constraints, the spot polyester staple fiber is difficult to continue to strengthen.

After the orders of “double 11″ and “double 12″ in the downstream market are gradually delivered, the new orders are not good, and the weaving start-up rate is decreased. The order peak of home textile printing and dyeing enterprises has eased, the order quantity tends to be flat, the inquiry of home textile grey cloth is not warm, and the goods are prepared on demand. Recent factory orders are relatively small, mainly old customers. The market has just recovered, such as a flash in the pan, affected by the epidemic situation, and later more confused. The recent orders have fallen down compared with the previous period, and the order volume has decreased significantly. There are more customized inquiries and less actual orders. In recent years, export orders have rebounded compared with previous years, but the order volume is not large compared with previous years. The soaring sea freight leads to the increase of expenses, the price of fabric is more bitter, the inquiry of customized fabric is increased, the development lofting is more, and the actual order is rarely implemented. Although the international epidemic situation continues, some countries have good signs such as resumption of work and recovery.

According to business agency analysts, as domestic textile products are mainly dependent on exports, and the appreciation of RMB to around 6.5, small and medium-sized textile enterprises relying on price are facing great challenges. These labor-intensive products will not compete with some Southeast Asian countries in terms of price due to the appreciation of RMB exchange rate. The reduction of orders and the loss of foreign exchange settlement are the common challenges faced by these foreign trade enterprises. A staff member of a yarn foreign trade enterprise admits that the price is usually pushed to a very low level by customers due to the requirements of competition. When enterprises encounter the loss of RMB exchange rate, coupled with the rise of raw materials and shipping freight, the business pressure of enterprises increases greatly. With the advent of the traditional off-season, polyester yarn prices may weaken in December.