According to the data from the business news agency, the price of thermal coal soared from 631 yuan / ton on December 1, 2020 to 1037.5 yuan / ton on January 18, 2021, with an increase rate of 64.42%. After that, the price of thermal coal went down to 573 yuan / ton on March 1, 2021, with a decrease rate of 44.77%. There is a large range of rise and fall. Since the beginning of March, the price of steam coal has warmed up and started to rise. At the beginning of March, the average market price was about 573 yuan / ton. At the end of March, the average market price was 750.75 yuan / ton, up 31.02%.
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Since the end of November 2020, the steam coal market can be described as “rapidly changing”. As can be seen from the figure below, the overall price of steam coal in the first quarter of 2021 is higher than that in 2019 and 2021, and is far higher than that in the same period of 2019, only at the end of February and the beginning of March.
The time is back to the winter of 2020, the supply guarantee policy is promoted, and the signal of safety production is enhanced at the end of the year. Although the output of Inner Mongolia has further rebounded, the supply of producing areas is still relatively tight. In terms of downstream power plants: in the case of lower temperature and rising daily consumption, the demand for downstream terminal transportation is also strong. The power plant is actively replenishing the stock, the inventory in Beigang is low, and the shortage of goods still exists. Due to the shortage of goods, there are often ships and other coal phenomenon. In the middle of the month, the news of import easing came true, but it took time for import increment to supplement, and the price of steam coal remained relatively strong. In the middle of January 2021, the price of producing areas has increased. Due to the severe epidemic situation in the main producing areas, some coal mines have stopped production. Overall supply is still relatively tight. Downstream power plants: due to the rising temperature, the daily consumption of power plants decreased and the inventory of power plants increased. Moreover, the power plant held a wait-and-see attitude towards the steam coal in February, and some traders lowered their prices to actively ship. The buyer and the seller start the demand game, and the main reason is that the Spring Festival is approaching, and the daily consumption of the power plant in February is uncertain.
During the Spring Festival, the national temperature rose significantly, there was little cold air, and the demand for heating power was weak. The daily consumption of the power plant has fallen back to the normal level in previous years, and the number of days available for coal storage has increased, so it is difficult for the short-term power plant to increase. The pace of replenishment has slowed down, and the number of days available for power plant inventory in coastal areas has risen to around 20 days. Most of the factories are on holiday, and the demand for electricity has dropped significantly, and the demand for industrial electricity has no obvious support. Steam coal prices continued to decline.
In March, the price of steam coal began to rebound. First, the inventory of producing areas decreased, the mining areas in Shaanxi maintained a low inventory state, and the number of coal mines shut down for maintenance due to coal management ticket increased in Inner Mongolia, resulting in a decrease in supply. At the end of the month, the number of coal mines shut down for maintenance increased, and the overall mine inventory was small. Second, in recent years, the daily consumption of power plants in coastal areas has picked up, and the inventory has maintained a slow decline. In addition, the date of spring centralized maintenance of Datong Qinhuangdao line is initially scheduled to be April 6-30, 3-5 hours a day for “open skylight” maintenance. According to the traffic volume during maintenance in previous years, the traffic volume of Datong Qinhuangdao line will further drop to about 1 million tons.
Analysts from the business news agency believe that: after the festival, industrial enterprises will resume production in an all-round way, and the demand from the chemical, cement, glass and other building materials industries will start in an all-round way. In addition, the industrial power consumption will increase, and the daily consumption of power coal will also increase. At present, the daily consumption of power plants will increase, which will drive the demand of power plants for steam coal. And the origin of good sales, steam coal prices or good support, prices. On the whole, the price of steam coal may maintain a slight upward trend, and the demand of downstream market will be taken into consideration.
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