1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price of toluene continued to decline this week. On March 21, the price of toluene was 5587.5 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (March 28), the price was 5487.5 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton or 1.79% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is – 350 / – 150 (yuan / ton). Affected by the sharp rise and fall of crude oil, the spot market price of toluene fluctuated mainly in the week. However, the supply of toluene is generally weak and the demand of downstream market is sufficient. Toluene stocks at ports in East and South China fell this week. In terms of external market, as of March 26, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 680 US dollars / ton, down 9 US dollars / ton or 1.31% on March 19. The price of imported toluene in East China was US $710 / T, up US $3 / T or 0.42% on the previous trading day and US $1 / T or 0.14% on March 19.

In terms of crude oil, this week’s crude oil showed a “W” trend. Under the long short game, it experienced many ups and downs. Good news: within the week, it was reported that a freighter ran aground in the Suez Canal. The channel may be blocked for several weeks, and crude oil transportation will be blocked. Bad news: US commercial crude oil inventories increased for five consecutive weeks; US bond yields continued to rise; severe epidemic in Europe and India, new round of blockade measures implemented in many places, resulting in weak crude oil demand. On March 19, Brent rose 0.08 USD / barrel, or 0.13%; WTI fell 0.48 USD / barrel, or 0.78%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week, with domestic goods at 17250 yuan / ton, down 1.43% from last week and up 57.77% from the same period last year. Domestic market wait-and-see consolidation, trading atmosphere is light, downstream inquiry enthusiasm is not high, terminal overall willingness to receive goods is weak, demand is insufficient, just need to purchase. The market was informed that Wanhua Fujian TDI device was overhauled and the market was bullish. It is expected that the future market will be slightly bullish.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week was stable compared with last week, at 6700 yuan / ton, up 42.55% over the beginning of the year and 34% over the same period last year. The supply of goods in the yard is normal, and the goods are in good condition within a week. As of the 26th, the closing prices in Asia were 795-797 USD / T FOB Korea and 813-815 USD / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

At present, the price of toluene mainly fluctuates with the trend of crude oil. Pay attention to the meeting of OPEC + and discuss the new decision on reducing production. On the demand side, the delivery is near the end of the month and the replenishment before the festival, and the downstream market purchasing is concerned. We will continue to pay attention to the international trend of crude oil, the arrival of toluene in Hong Kong, the dynamic situation of domestic enterprises and the impact of downstream demand changes on the price of toluene.