1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 56000 yuan / ton last Friday and 46666.67 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 16.67% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus prices stopped falling and rebounded this week. Yellow phosphorus prices fell at the beginning of the week. Guizhou limited power in the middle of the week, and yellow phosphorus stopped falling and rebounded. At present, yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly issue early orders, and most manufacturers temporarily stop making external quotations. Traders wait and see, and the search for offers is gradually increasing. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 45000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 45000-50000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 50000 yuan / ton. At present, the focus of the yellow phosphorus market is upward, the downstream goods are more active than before, and the trading volume has increased.

In terms of raw materials, this week, China’s domestic phosphate ore market finally ushered in the first rise after the national day. Supported by the continuous tight supply in Guizhou and Guangxi, some mining enterprises raised the prices of medium and high-end phosphate rock freight plants. After adjustment, the prices of 28% phosphate rock freight plants in Guizhou exceeded 600 yuan / ton, with a reference of 550-600 yuan / ton, The factory price of 30% grade phosphate rock is around 620-650 yuan / ton. The phosphate ore market in Hubei is in high-level consolidation and operation. The quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore truck plate is 660-680 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore truck plate is 660-680 yuan / ton. At present, there is little change in the overall supply and demand of phosphate rock. In areas with tight supply, orders are mainly given to old contract customers. The overall transaction performance of new orders in the market is general, and the downstream procurement is also cautious. As of the 22nd, the market reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was around 620-700 yuan / ton, up 20-30 yuan / ton compared with a week ago.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke in Shandong port is temporarily stable, and the inventory in the two ports has increased slightly. At present, the mainstream spot exchange ex warehouse price of quasi primary coke in the port is 4250-4350 yuan / ton. The futures market has continued to fall by the limit, affecting the mentality of the port market. At present, most traders have a strong wait-and-see mentality. Although the port collection volume has increased to a certain extent, the marketable supply in the market is still limited, and some traders do not quote. The quotation of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market is 4270 yuan / ton. At present, there is a weak balance between supply and demand in the coke market, and the heating season is coming. The production restriction order of coking enterprises will tend to be strict, and the output of both coke and by-products will be reduced to a certain extent. At present, the cost of coke enterprises is high and the price support mentality is strong. It is expected that the future market will remain stable, medium and strong.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid moves downward, the market gradually cools down and the focus moves downward. According to the monitoring of business society, the average price of phosphoric acid was 19000 yuan / ton last Friday and 14533.33 yuan / ton this Friday. The price decreased by 23.51% during the week. At present, the price of raw materials is lowered, the cost support is gradually weakened, the operating load of phosphoric acid enterprises is gradually increased, the space elasticity of adjustable price is increased, and the enthusiasm of the market is gradually cooled. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to decline in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business agency, the price of yellow phosphorus fell at the beginning of this week, and the market price of yellow phosphorus stopped falling and rebounded in the middle of the week due to the power restriction in Guizhou. At present, most manufacturers do not make external quotations, and the search for orders is gradually increasing, and the goods are more positive than before. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will tilt upward in the short term, but the range is limited.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the recent domestic PA66 market has remained strong at a high level, and the spot prices of various brands are high. As of October 21, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 41150 yuan / ton, up or down 0.00% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: Recently, the price of adipic acid in East China has remained stable, and the price of most dealers has little change. The price of pure benzene in the upstream runs at a high level, the cost support is strong, the manufacturer supports the price, the dealer’s price has no intention to loosen, the downstream demand has improved slightly, and the transaction is OK. Adipic acid is dominated by high-level operation, and the upward momentum is insufficient. Adiponitrile has not improved much. The capacity loss claimed by large international manufacturers in the medium and long term is still affecting the market, and the supply shortage has not improved. Due to the high dependence on imports of adiponitrile, most domestic PA66 production loads are forced to operate at a low level.

The high price of raw materials rose, and the cost side support of PA66 was strong. The operating rate of the industry is affected by the shortage of adiponitrile. Except Zhejiang Huafeng, the operating rate of PA66 enterprises decreases. Recently, the arrival of goods at each port is rare, and the inventory is low. It is expected that the arrival of imports will be difficult to make up for the domestic demand gap in the short term. In terms of the demand of terminal enterprises, as the household appliance industry is in the peak demand season, there is a certain demand pull for PA66, the seller’s mentality is strong, and the high offer is mainly firm.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the recent high spot price of PA66 remains firm. The raw material side has strengthened at the same time, and the shortage of adiponitrile has not been improved. Due to the lack of raw materials, the overall load of the polymerization plant is low, and the spot supply side is favorable. In terms of demand, the on-site purchase operation is mainly just demand. The market is characterized by balanced supply and demand and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that PA66 will mainly operate at a high level in the near future.

Trade name: PMMA

Latest price (October 20): 17450.00 yuan / ton

The average price of domestic general transparent superior PMMA is 17450.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains about 17000 yuan / ton. The price of PMMA is mainly stable, the overall price change is not obvious, the focus of negotiation is stable, and the supply side is normal.

Future forecast: it is expected that the PMMA market will be stable and small in the short term, and the procurement atmosphere is general.

The data monitoring shows that on October 19, the market was boosted by the flood news in Thailand, and the natural rubber market was crazy upward. Among them, Shanghai Rubber rose by about 650-700 yuan / ton, and the spot rubber was adjusted according to the market. The rising range of Qingdao and Shanghai markets was generally about 500-700 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation of domestic standard 1 in the current period was about 14300-14500 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Yunxiang / Jinfeng whole milk in 19 years was about 14550-14600 yuan / ton, In 20 years, the price of 3L glue in Vietnam was 13500-13700 yuan / ton, and the price of new glue for No. 3 cigarette in Thailand was about 17800 yuan / ton.

Analysis: from a macro perspective, the trend of crude oil is still strong, and the market of bulk raw materials is still strong; The production of synthetic rubber has a great impact on the price of natural rubber. From the perspective of industry, on the supply side, the abnormal weather this year has a great impact on rubber production. On the 19th, I heard that Thailand was suffering from flood and waterlogging. On this basis, the market operated wildly and the price rose sharply; At the import and export end, the sea freight rate has decreased, which has moderately reduced the pressure on rubber transportation. However, the changeable weather also has a great impact on transportation, which may have a certain impact on the centralized arrival of orders in August. At present, the import volume has not increased significantly; On the production side, due to the significant increase in policy requirements and cost pressure, the start-up of tire enterprises has been greatly affected. Some small and medium-sized tires have been shut down. Large tire enterprises are facing various pressures of cost and inventory pressure, and the start-up rate is low; At the downstream demand side, due to the lack of chips and power, the recently released global automobile sales data and passenger car sales data showed a decline.

Forecast: it is expected that under the influence of the flood news in Thailand in the short term, the trend of natural rubber is still strong, but today, Shanghai Rubber closed, and the increase has decreased. It is necessary to beware of the possibility of insufficient capital trend and rising power; In the medium and long term, it is necessary to comprehensively analyze the above factors. Without a significant increase in the supply side, the macro and downstream demand will be supported, and the rubber price will maintain a strong trend; If a large number of imported rubber arrive in Hong Kong, the demand continues to shrink and the macro surface weakens, the rubber price will inevitably be weak.

According to the monitoring data of the business society, after the national day, the hydrogen peroxide market has been in the rising channel, the price has repeatedly reached new highs, and the rising trend has been continuous. As of October 18, the price of hydrogen peroxide has reached 1713 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of more than 30%. Compared with the beginning of October, the increase has been as high as 94.7%.

After the national day, the hydrogen peroxide market began to rise gradually. In the second week, the mode of sharp rise was started. When the weekly increase was close to 30%, in the third week, the single day increase on Monday was more than 30%. Under the pattern of rising costs and tight supply, hydrogen peroxide continued to rise sharply.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide of business society from July 26, 2021 to October 17, 2021, it can be seen that the hydrogen peroxide market has been weak and stable since the end of July, with a maximum decline of 2.81%. The overall performance of the market in August and September was sluggish. In mid September, the hydrogen peroxide Market improved, with a maximum weekly increase of 3.15%. After October 11, hydrogen peroxide ushered in a sharp rise, with a continuous rise. In the week of October 11, hydrogen peroxide rose by 29.57%. On October 18, hydrogen peroxide increased by more than 30%.

Multiple positive factors support the continuous rise of hydrogen peroxide Market

After the national day, the steam cost of hydrogen peroxide unit increased due to the rise of coal price. In addition to the terminal caprolactam, the rigid demand support of the paper printing industry, the increase in procurement, and the tight supply of some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers, supported by multiple favorable factors, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have raised the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the rise of hydrogen peroxide is amazing.

The increase in the week of October 7 was average. In the week of October 15, hydrogen peroxide kept rising, and the ex factory price was raised for many times, with a daily increase of more than 100 yuan / ton, from 1003 yuan / ton on October 11 to 1300 yuan / ton on October 15, an increase of more than 30%. On October 17, the average price of hydrogen peroxide broke through 1700 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of more than 30%.

On October 17, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Luxi, Shandong was 1740 yuan / ton, an increase of 420 yuan / ton in a single day; Hebei Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide quoted 1600 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of 320 yuan / ton; Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1800 yuan / ton, an increase of 500 yuan / ton per day.

Affected by dual control factors, both terminal paper and caprolactam showed an upward trend

After the national day, the cost of caprolactam and pure benzene rose. In addition, some enterprises did not resume supply due to the impact of dual control, the supply of goods was tight, and the price continued to run at a high level, up more than 11% compared with September.

Due to the impact of shutdown risk due to soaring prices of various bulk materials and coal shortage, leading paper enterprises have issued price increase letters. With the rising price of waste paper, the production cost has increased significantly, resulting in the continuous rise of corrugated paper price. In the whole half month, the increase was more than 5%, the price of corrugated paper rose sharply, and the demand for purchasing hydrogen peroxide increased, supporting the upward rise of hydrogen peroxide price. Hydrogen peroxide rose by more than 90%, reaching a new record.

Business agency hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that: with tight supply and rising costs, the hydrogen peroxide market will still operate at a high level in the short term, and the future correction space is limited.

The price of aluminum fluoride rose sharply

According to the data of business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 10500 yuan / ton on October 15, up 3.96% from 10100.00 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month; Aluminum fluoride rose sharply in October.

Overview of industrial chain Market

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of fluorite rose in October, the market of hydrofluoric acid continued to rise sharply, and the cost of aluminum fluoride rose sharply, stimulating the sharp rise of aluminum fluoride price.

According to the monitoring of business society, the aluminum commodity index on October 15 was 132.18, up 2.33 points from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 143.78% from the lowest point of 54.22 on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose to a record high, and the demand for aluminum fluoride remained strong. With the intensification of power rationing, the start-up level of aluminum fluoride enterprises fell, the downstream demand was strong, and the production capacity of aluminum fluoride was limited, which stimulated the rise of aluminum fluoride prices.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that: in October, the price of aluminum fluoride raw materials continued to rise sharply, and the cost of aluminum fluoride increased; The downstream electrolytic aluminum reached a new high, the demand for aluminum fluoride was strong, the power restriction was intensified, the commencement of aluminum fluoride fell, the demand was high, and the supply was tight, which stimulated the sharp rise of aluminum fluoride price. In the future, the price of aluminum fluoride is expected to rise sharply.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong rose sharply. On the 10th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1833.33 yuan / ton, and on the 14th, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 2267.67 yuan / ton, up 23.64%. The current price rose 58.14% month on month, and the current price rose 115.87% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

The market price of formaldehyde in Shandong rose this week. It can be seen from the figure above that formaldehyde rose for more than two consecutive weeks, of which two had the highest increase of more than 9% in a single week. As of October 14, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 2150-2300 yuan / ton. Linyi jinyimeng formaldehyde production line with an annual production capacity of 100000 tons has resumed normal production. Recently, formaldehyde enterprises started well, the inventory situation decreased rapidly, the shipment of formaldehyde manufacturers was positive, and the leading formaldehyde market continued to rise.

Summary of formaldehyde market prices in various regions as of October 14:

Region, price

East China 2220-2230 yuan / ton

North China 2060 yuan / ton

Central China 2190-2200 yuan / ton

Northwest China 2070-2080 yuan / ton

Upstream methanol: the market reference price of methanol in Dongying, Shandong Province is 4210 yuan / ton, which is sent to cash exchange, and the market negotiation atmosphere is light. The negotiated price of methanol market in central Shandong is 4240-4260 yuan / ton and sent to cash exchange. The price of local methanol factory in central Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan / ton, and the factory provides cash exchange. The transaction atmosphere is light. The methanol market in southern Shandong negotiated the price to 4300-4320 yuan / ton, the factory offered cash exchange, Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to 4280-4300 yuan / ton, and delivered it to cash exchange. The logistics offer is not available yet. Futures fell by the limit, and the mentality of operators has weakened. The methanol market continued to rise sharply, providing strong cost support for formaldehyde.

At present, the downstream plate plant is still under construction, has relatively active procurement, has no obvious resistance to the market situation, has good demand for formaldehyde, the market trading atmosphere is good, formaldehyde manufacturers actively ship, and the market inventory is digested stably. The formaldehyde market is mainly driven by the rise of methanol and rises with the rise of methanol market.

Recently, the rise of methanol market has stopped slightly, and the rise of formaldehyde market may be weak. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts of chemical branch of business society expect that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall by shock.

Trade name: titanium dioxide

Latest price October 13: 20950 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on October 13, the domestic titanium dioxide market price was basically stable. Titanium dioxide enterprises are limited, the market starts at a low level, and the inventory pressure is not large. However, the downstream coating market is affected by dual control, with poor operation and weak demand. At present, the trading market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. Traders are more cautious in taking goods and mainly purchase on demand. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will operate stably in the short term.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose slightly in the first ten days of October. As of the 12th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2700 yuan / ton, up 1.25% from 2666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 1.25% year-on-year.

In the first ten days of October, the price trend of fluorite continued to rise. Recently, the manufacturer reported that the order situation of fluorite was general, the shipment of merchants in the venue was normal, the supply of fluorite in the venue was relatively normal, and the price trend in the venue increased slightly. The operation of domestic fluorite manufacturers is stable, the operation of mines and flotation units in the site is normal, the delivery of goods in the fluorite site is general, and the market price of fluorite rises slightly. In the first ten days of October, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid rose, and the downstream terminal mainly purchased on demand. By the end of the month, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation in Fujian was 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2700 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-2700 yuan / ton, Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has continued to rise.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite rose. As of December 12, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11860 yuan / ton, with an increase of 6.18% in the first ten days of October. The rising price trend of hydrofluoric acid has a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite rose slightly. The price trend of downstream refrigerant products has maintained rising, the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field has maintained, the recent sales of the automobile industry is OK, the refrigerant market trend has increased, and the demand is mainly based on demand procurement. The rise of the refrigerant market has brought certain benefits to the upstream raw materials. On the whole, the refrigerant market is dominated by positive factors, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform is rising, which increases the cost of the refrigerant industry. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, coupled with quota factors, the production cost pressure of refrigerant enterprises increases, enterprises sell in limited quantities, the shortage of goods in the field continues, boosting R22 prices, and the mainstream of on-site negotiation is 26000-27000 yuan / ton. The price of R134a in China has risen sharply. Meanwhile, mainstream enterprises such as Jiangsu Meilan and Shandong Dongyue have installed parking lots. The supply of goods in the yard continues to be tight, the enterprise inventory is not under pressure, the price support mood is strong, and the market continues to rise. At present, the average market price exceeds 40000 yuan / ton. Although the vehicle demand is still in the off-season, the cost support is getting stronger, the market is running stronger, and the market trend of downstream refrigerant has risen sharply, Fluorite prices continued to rise.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry is rising. Recently, the supply of hydrofluoric acid market is normal, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the field has an upward trend. In addition, the supply of fluorite is normal. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, believes that the market price of fluorite may rise in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 5425.00 yuan / ton on the 7th and 5400.00 yuan / ton on the 11th, down 0.46%, the current price fell by 1.22% month on month, and the current price rose by 29.73% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

Recently, the domestic potassium nitrate market continues to decline. As can be seen from the above figure, the potassium nitrate market continues to be poor in late August and has been in a downward trend for almost two months. The market supply is sufficient. The manufacturer has a slight inventory pressure and arranges orders for shipment. The demand of downstream factories is weak, the procurement maintains rigid demand, the trading atmosphere of the whole potash fertilizer market is general, and the overall transaction is not good. The market of potassium nitrate shows a slight downward trend. According to the statistics of business society, the quotation of mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate in Shanxi this week is 5200-5600 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

The supply of domestic potash fertilizer is sufficient for the time being. The amount of potassium chloride stored in the port is about 2.3 million tons, with little change. The international market price of potassium chloride has increased greatly, and the international price of potassium chloride is about 500-700 US dollars / ton. At present, the domestic supply of potassium chloride is sufficient and the demand is general. In the future, it is expected that the potassium chloride market will consolidate at a high level.

The recent potash fertilizer market is dominated by shock consolidation. The downstream factories are not active in purchasing and maintain rigid demand. It is expected that the potash nitrate Market will decline in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).