Analysis: This week (3.24-28), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong region showed weak performance, with prices reversing last week’s upward trend and turnover declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 5.43%. The main reason is that the supply has shifted from tight to loose, increasing supply pressure. The early maintenance equipment has gradually resumed, and the operating rate of manufacturers has increased. Coupled with the poor performance of the urea market, some manufacturers have switched to ammonia, which has further exacerbated the contradiction of oversupply in the ammonia market. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 100-200 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2500-2700 yuan/ton.

Prediction: The peak season for spring plowing has ended, agricultural demand has weakened, downstream procurement is more rational, market atmosphere is light, downstream operating rates have significantly decreased, and industrial demand is urgently following suit. However, the supply of liquid ammonia is relatively sufficient, and the pressure of supply and demand is prominent. It is expected that there is still room for ammonia prices to decline before the Qingming Festival.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 24th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6800 yuan/ton, which is 0.89% higher than the reference average price of 6740 yuan/ton on March 17th.

2、 Market analysis

Market Aspects

The domestic phosphoric acid market prices have risen this week. As of March 24th, the factory price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-6900 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85% industrial thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6700-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6600-7100 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. After the rise in the yellow phosphorus market this week, the operation has been consolidated, and the operating rate of enterprises has increased, with the main orders being issued in the early stage. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with downstream demand for replenishment and cautious procurement. Expected short-term consolidation and operation of domestic yellow phosphorus prices.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the recent rise in the phosphate market has stabilized. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has stopped rising, and cost support is still present. Phosphate enterprises focus on stabilizing prices, with stable market trading. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will experience a narrow consolidation and operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has increased this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 23200 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 24000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.45%, which is 14.5% higher than the same period last year. On March 20th, the Business Society Bromine Index was 83.51, an increase of 1.4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 65.94% from the highest point of 245.18 points during the cycle (2021-10-27), and an increase of 41.73% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has been rising, with the price of bromine in Shandong region increasing. The mainstream market price is around 23000-24000 yuan/ton. Bromine inventory is tight, and although downstream flame retardant manufacturers have low operating rates, demand is active. Imported bromine has been delayed, and prices have risen. It is expected that prices will remain stable with some increase in the short term. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been running weakly, with an average market price of 2487.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2434.33 yuan/ton over the weekend. The price has decreased by 2.14% and increased by 132.58% compared to the same period last year. Downstream demand is generally average.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to rise recently, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to remain weak. Bromine supply is tight, and downstream demand is good. However, the supply of imported bromine is slow. Overall, it is expected that bromine prices may continue to rise in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 10th to 14th, the domestic aggregated MDI market experienced a weak decline, with an average price of 17466 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17400 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.38% during the period and a year-on-year increase of 3.57%. The domestic MDI aggregation market did not see any improvement in transactions within the week, and there is a strong willingness to ship at low prices. Downstream cautious entry into the market, limited news boost, and the market remains weak.

On the supply side, the domestic Fujian plant operates at low negative loads, while other plants operate smoothly. The 70000 ton/year MDI plant of Japan’s Covestro will begin maintenance in early March and is expected to be serviced around January. Huntsman’s 500000 ton MDI plant located in North America is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance starting from early March, lasting for one month.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The price of pure benzene has continued to decline, and the operating rate of pure benzene has rebounded. The inventory of pure benzene in ports continues to decrease, and downstream production of caprolactam is at a high level. The demand for pure benzene is relatively strong, and currently it is still mainly supported by costs. Raw material aniline: Aniline has fallen, with a mainstream price of 8700-8850 yuan/ton. The overall shipment of aniline factory is not smooth, with accumulated inventory and insufficient confidence in the field.

On the demand side, downstream demand follow-up is average, with a focus on essential needs. Export orders are still acceptable, but demand needs further improvement.

Future forecast: The current aggregated MDI market is running weakly, supported by overseas maintenance news, with suppliers controlling their inventory and digesting it, waiting for demand to rebound.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic adipic acid market has been weak and declining since March. On March 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8366 yuan/ton. On March 14th, the average market price of adipic acid in China was 7833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.11%.

Loose supply leads to weak decline in domestic adipic acid market

Since March, the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid have continued to decline, with poor demand from the terminal industry and oversupply in the adipic acid market. The prices of adipic acid manufacturers and traders have continued to decline, resulting in a decrease in market trading volume and mediocre sales. The average market price of adipic acid has dropped to 7700-7900 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 200-300 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in late March, due to poor demand in the terminal industry and a weak decline in raw material prices, the adipic acid market will continue to decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aggregated MDI market has recently experienced a high decline. The mainstream price for Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) is 17600-18800 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price for domestic goods (PM200) is 17900-18100 yuan/ton. The Fujian plant is on the brink of shutdown, but the market supply is still sufficient. Downstream demand is average, while upstream demand is more proactive, resulting in reduced prices for delivery. There is no obvious positive boost in the market, and it is expected that the aggregated MDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11956 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11966/ton, with a price increase of 0.08%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have seen some price increases this week, while most have remained stable. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton, and market transactions have accelerated. Industry insiders are optimistic about the future and are focusing on market transactions.

The shipment of coconut shell charcoal for applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges has accelerated, especially for gold charcoal, which has received more inquiries from the African market; The shipment of fruit shell charcoal is smooth. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, so pay more attention to the transaction situation.

Prediction: The trading atmosphere in the activated carbon market is active, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash first fell and then rose in February. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1494 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1498 yuan/ton. The price increased by 5 yuan/ton during the month, with an overall increase of 0.27%. On February 28th, the Business Society’s light soda ash index was 76.82, up 1.95 points from yesterday, a decrease of 59.38% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 21.65% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market for soda ash this month first fell and then rose. The utilization rate of soda ash production capacity remained at a high level during the month, and the market supply was sufficient. The sales pressure of spot soda ash factories was high, while downstream glass fluctuated narrowly and mainly consumed inventory, resulting in limited demand for soda ash and overall weak soda ash prices. At the end of the month, affected by the news of soda ash maintenance, the market supply expectation decreased, and the intention of factories to rise increased, resulting in a strong increase in soda ash prices.

As of February 28, 2025, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is around 1480-1550 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in Central China is around 1400-1500 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in North China is around 1480-1570 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of glass has fluctuated and risen this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 16.20 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 16.40 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.23%. The capacity utilization rate of the glass market has decreased, and the spot market is fluctuating at a high level. Downstream market entry follows suit according to demand, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. The glass inventory has increased, and the price market is consolidating.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the price comparison index of Shengyi Society’s soda ash and glass products on February 28th was 81.65, an increase of 4.69 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.34% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and an increase of 10.79% from the lowest point of 73.70 points on February 16, 2025. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, there are maintenance plans for some domestic soda ash plants, and the expected capacity utilization rate is decreasing. The mentality of spot soda ash plants is optimistic. Recently, the price of light soda ash has risen strongly, and the overall demand for soda ash in the downstream is limited. The supply and demand game in the market is expected to cause fluctuations in soda ash prices in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

The butadiene rubber market experienced a significant decline in February. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.47% from 15000 yuan/ton at the beginning of February. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; The production of Shunding rubber has slightly decreased compared to the end of January, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly decreased; In mid to late February, downstream tire production increased significantly, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of February 27th, the mainstream price in East China is 13850-14250 yuan/ton.

Since February, the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 27th, the price of butadiene was 11087 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.44% from 12662 yuan/ton at the beginning of February.

In February, the domestic production of butadiene rubber plants remained at around 6.20%, and the supply pressure slightly decreased compared to January.

Demand side: Downstream tire production will increase after the holiday, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber market. As of February 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 8.0%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.7% of the load.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that after a sharp drop in butadiene prices in the short term, it will consolidate weakly, and the cost support of butadiene rubber will continue to be weak; Post holiday downstream construction will increase; The production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level, and overall, it is expected that the butadiene rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene first rose and then fell this month, with a slight overall decrease in price. The price of pure benzene has been rising since the beginning of the month, with slight fluctuations in mid month and a continuous decline in late month. On February 1st, the price was 7553 yuan/ton; On February 27th, the price was 7509.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market continues to decline. There is still pressure on local refining and shipping in Shandong region, and the focus continues to decline, releasing inventory pressure. In the East China region, import arbitrage has had a certain impact on the East China market, leading to a decline in market prices. Overall, business operators are more cautious and tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.

This month, the price of pure benzene from Sinopec dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspects

3、 Future forecast

Crude oil futures: On February 26th, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.62 per barrel, a decrease of $0.31 or 0.5%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.07 per barrel, a decrease of $0.43 or 0.6%. The unexpected increase in finished oil inventories in the United States indicates that the expectation of weak demand remains unchanged; The addition of the Ukraine Russia peace agreement has put pressure on oil prices.

On February 26th, FOB Korea fell 24 to 874 US dollars per ton, CFR China fell 23 to 893 US dollars per ton, FOB Rotterdam fell 11 to 853 US dollars per ton, and FOB USG fell 4 to 298 US cents per gallon.

Overall forecast: The pure benzene market is expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term, with a wait-and-see attitude towards cost and demand news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.