The market of polybutadiene rubber rose slightly in September. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of cis polybutadiene rubber was 13020 yuan/ton as of September 29, up 2.36% from 12720 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Although the downstream commencement in Jinjiu peak season is not as good as that in previous years, it has slightly increased compared with the early stage, which has a certain need for support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the raw material price rose significantly, which promoted the rise of cis polybutadiene rubber on the cost side; In the middle of the month, some enterprises started to shut down their Shunding plants and reduce the load, reducing the pressure on the supply side of Shunding, and supporting the Shunding market; At the end of the month, the price of raw materials fell sharply, and the rise of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was limited by the drag of cost.

Supply side: In September, the supply side pressure of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was high before and low after. In the early stage, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber enterprises started to work normally. In the middle and late days, Hopu and Zhenhua cis-1,4-polybutadiene devices began to operate under reduced load; Sichuan Petrochemical will stop for a short time, and Taixiang Yubu will stop for maintenance in the middle of the year; Although Qixiang Tengda has newly put into production, it mainly maintains first-line operation. The pressure on the domestic supply side of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber eased in the middle and late ten days. However, in October, Zhejiang Petrochemical 100000 t/a cis-1,4-polybutadiene unit with 50000 t/year capacity was planned to be commissioned, which may have an impact on the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market in October.

On the cost side, the butadiene price in September was first high and then low. At the end of the month, it fell by 4.14% compared with the beginning of the month. The cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber support turned from strong to weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 29, the price of butadiene was 8303 yuan/ton, 4.14% lower than the 8662 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the month was 9277 yuan/ton.

The natural rubber market rose slightly in September, which had more influence on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. As of September 29, the price was 12366 yuan/ton, up 4.71% from 11810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: In the peak season of Jinjiu, domestic tire enterprises started to work slightly, with full steel tires starting at around 60% and semi steel tires starting at around 65%, which is supportive of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber.

Future market forecast: The analysts of the business community believe that although the new Shunding device will bring further pressure to the supply side in October, the downstream of the traditional peak season of Jinjiuyinshi has a certain need for support for Shunding Rubber. In addition, the probability of international energy risks driving up domestic petrochemical costs is high, so it is expected that Shunding Rubber will have a wave of upward trend in the later period.

The domestic MIBK market rose slightly, which was mainly supported by the overall rise of acetone at the raw material end after the festival. Under the pressure of cost, the focus of negotiation rose by about 100-150 yuan/ton, and the overall negotiation range was 10600-10750 yuan/ton.

The raw material acetone factory raised 300-500 yuan/ton on the 9th, the listing price of factories in various regions was 6000-6200 yuan/ton, and the major mainstream markets negotiated to increase it to 6150-6250 yuan/ton. The offer in East China rose to 6150 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong and North China was 6225-6250 yuan/ton. The continuous upward movement of the market has increased the cost pressure on the downstream, and the supply on the market is still tight. It is expected that acetone will be strong in the short term.

Influenced by the sharp rise of acetone, MIBK market has maintained a rising mentality, and the market offer has risen significantly. Under the support of cost, MIBK operates at a high price in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the market price of acrylonitrile rose sharply in September. As of September 30, the price of bulk water in the acrylonitrile market was 9870 yuan/ton, up 10.90% from 8900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In September, the domestic acrylonitrile supply increased slightly in a stable way, but the demand and cost were supported, and the offer of merchants was stable in the early stage and later stage. As of September 30, the mainstream offer of acrylonitrile market in East China was between 9600 yuan and 10050 yuan/ton.

In September, the acrylonitrile units such as Silbang, Jilin Petrochemical, Shanghai SECCO, Zhejiang Petrochemical, etc. continued to operate at a reduced load. The acrylonitrile unit in Kolur began to increase to 90% of the load in the middle of the year, and the acrylonitrile supply increased slightly in late September.

In September, the raw propylene market rose significantly, and the cost of acrylonitrile was supported stronger. According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene price was 7620 yuan/ton as of September 29, up 7.32% from 7100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In September, ABS at the downstream of acrylonitrile continued to operate at a high level of 80% to 90%; Acrylic fiber and nitrile rubber industry started stably, and downstream demand continued to support acrylonitrile in September.

Future forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that, on the one hand, there is still pressure for new production of acrylonitrile in the later stage, and on the other hand, costs and demand continue to support; Acrylonitrile market is expected to consolidate at a high level in the later period.

Price trend:

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, the domestic ABS market rose in September, slightly fell at the end of the month, and the spot prices of all brands rose overall. As of September 30, the average price of the mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 12850 yuan/ton, up or down by+9.83% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: In terms of raw styrene, the market price of styrene rose this month. The increase of terminal operating rate in the traditional peak demand season supports the spot price, and the market just needs to strengthen. In addition, the extreme weather in the middle of the month affected the delivery and arrival of goods, which to some extent supported the spot price. However, the international crude oil price fluctuated, the styrene cost support was ambiguous, and the price corrected at the end of the month. The main reason is that the focus of the pure benzene market continues to move downward, the ethylene market is in shock and consolidation, and the support for the styrene market is limited. Domestic styrene devices have returned in succession. The styrene inventory is rising, and the rising trend is weak. It is expected that the spot price of styrene will fall in shock in the later period.

The market of acrylonitrile rose sharply this month, and the benefits were concentrated on the reduction of supply pressure. Acrylonitrile units such as Silbang, Jilin Petrochemical, Shanghai Secco, Zhejiang Petrochemical continued to operate at a reduced load. The capacity of Kroor acrylonitrile unit began to rise to 90% in the middle of the month, and the supply picked up slightly in the second half of the month. However, there is still pressure for new production in the later period. On the other hand, costs and demand continue to support. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate at a high level in the later period.

In September, the domestic butadiene market rose first and then fell, which was favorable because of the frequent maintenance of devices and the reduction of supply. At the same time, extreme weather affected the transportation of some goods. The supply of spot goods in the market was tightened, boosting the offer of merchants. In the middle of the year, Beifang Huajin and Fushun Petrochemical, the major producers in the northeast, started to bid for the outside world. At the same time, the market performance of the outside market was weak, the downstream cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber load fell, and the demand was poor. The butadiene market turned downward. At the end of the month, Sinopec took the lead in lowering its offer, and the market atmosphere turned to light.

This month, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side have a strong trend, and the support of ABS cost side is good. In terms of industry load, the commencement of some production lines of ABS in the middle of the month was improved and fulfilled. The industry load reached a high level of 80% to 90%. The supply in the market continued to be abundant, which kept the pressure on the market. In terms of demand, this month is a traditional peak demand season with a double festival stocking tide. The stocking and digestion before and after the Mid Autumn Festival, coupled with the stocking tide on the National Day, have jointly pushed up the spot price of ABS. At the end of the month, the end enterprise stock up was basically completed. After the midstream traders made profits, there was accompanying shipping operations. In addition, the styrene fell back, and the center of gravity of the ABS offer fell slightly.

Future market forecast:

Analysts from the business community believe that the spot market of ABS rose in September, and the overall trend of the upstream three materials was positive, providing strong support for the cost side of ABS. The load of domestic industry is high, the spot supply is abundant, and the market in the peak market demand season drives up the spot price. After the festival, there may be holiday stock accumulation, decline in buyers’ acceptance, and terminal enterprises’ digestion of inventory. It is expected that the ABS spot market will enter a period of consolidation and operation next month, which does not rule out that the market will continue to decline.

Futures:

Figure 1: Trend of 2301 contract of natural rubber futures in September 2022

Main trend: In September, the natural rubber futures generally rose sharply first, then retreated and continued to fluctuate in a small range. On the first day, the main price was 13270 yuan/ton, the highest in the middle of the month was nearly 13500 yuan/ton, and on the 30th, the main price was 13135 yuan/ton, down about 1%.

goods in stock:

Figure 2: Trend of natural rubber spot commodity index since 2022

Commodity index: According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on September 29 was 36.67, up 0.03 points from yesterday, down 63.33% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, and up 34.42% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 3: Trend of mainstream natural rubber prices in September 2022

Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the business agency, the spot market of domestic natural rubber (Standard 1) in the East China market in September showed an upward trend of shock, and the trend was weak due to the callback at the end of the month. The market reported 11810 yuan/ton on the first day and 12310 yuan/ton on the 30th, with a monthly increase of 4.23%; The highest price of this month is 12400 yuan/ton on the 27th, and the lowest price is 11702 yuan/ton on the 7th, with the maximum monthly amplitude of 5.96%. Among them, the first ten days saw a slight downward trend of 0.88%: the mainstream quotation in the East China market was slightly adjusted from 11810 yuan/ton to 11702 yuan/ton, only about 100 yuan/ton; In the middle of the year, it rose 3.64% strongly: East China reported 12150 yuan/ton on the 11th and 12132 yuan/ton on the 20th; In the last ten days, the fluctuation range was 1.57%. On the 21st, East China reported 12120 yuan/ton, and on the 30th, 12310 yuan/ton.

Figure 4: Weekly K Histogram of Natural Rubber Market in 2022

Industrial factors: according to the monitoring of the business community, the supply of natural rubber at home and abroad was strong in September, and the price of glue did not change much. Thailand glue was about 45.5-45.7 Baht/kg, and Hainan glue was about 11000 yuan/ton; The arrival of goods at the port has increased, the spot circulation is smooth, and there are still goods arriving at the port after the festival, the spot inventory has accumulated and the order delay continues to arrive at the port; Although the operating rate of finished products of downstream tire enterprises rose slightly in the month, the new purchase volume did not increase significantly due to weak demand orders and sufficient inventory in the factory, and the purchase demand before the festival was lower than that of the previous “Golden Ninth”; Although there is typhoon in the production area in the month, it lasts for a short time and the rubber price rises and falls rapidly. On the whole, the natural rubber market fluctuates slightly in this month.

Figure 5: Trend Chart of International Crude Oil Mainstream Prices in Recent March 2022

Macro factors: In September, the international crude oil futures continued to plummet by nearly 10%. In the month, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures fell below the $80 threshold, hitting a low point since January 10, and the oil price fell for four consecutive weeks, the longest decline since this year. The market is increasingly worried about the economic downturn, and the oil price has been falling constantly against the background of continued geopolitical deterioration. Since the third quarter, WTI has fallen by more than 20%. According to the analysis, the oil price will still seek a balance between the supply shortage and the demand recession expectation in the future, and the superposition of interest rate increase cycle, geopolitical tension and other factors will make the oil market more volatile. In 2022, the continuation of the U.S. monetary policy will continue to depress oil prices. In the medium and long term, oil prices may still have opportunities. On the one hand, the supply side is favorable, and once demand rebounds, oil prices will continue to rise.

Figure 6: Comparison Chart of Annual Spot Market Trend of Natural Rubber from 2020 to 2022

Future market forecast: considering the recent downstream tire orders and purchase demand status, it is unlikely that natural rubber will rise significantly without major extreme weather impact and downstream demand improvement, and the probability will remain volatile.

Recent domestic sulphuric acid price trend

After five months of continuous decline, the sulfuric acid market finally rose slightly in September. As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell first and then rose in September. The market price of sulfuric acid fell from 252.00 yuan/ton on September 1 to 228.00 yuan/ton on September 14, a decrease of 9.52%. Later, it rose to 258.00 yuan/ton on September 29, up 13.16%. The price at the end of the month fell 70.40% year on year.

On September 28, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 40.16, up 1.56 points from yesterday, down 78.65% from the peak of 188.07 (2022-04-13) in the cycle, and up 27.41% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is better, while the downstream demand is insufficient

Domestic sulphuric acid market in September

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulphuric acid manufacturers rose and fell with each other this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory was small.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market rose sharply this month. The sulfur price rose from 1163.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1453.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 24.93%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 26.23% year on year. The upstream cost support improved, which had a positive impact on the sulfuric acid market. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market declined slightly. The ex factory price fell from 10560.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10480.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 0.76%, and a year-on-year drop of 6.18% compared with the same period last year. The downstream titanium dioxide market declined slightly, with the price falling from 17500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 16350.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 6.57%, 21.96% YoY compared with the same period last year. Downstream market fell slightly, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid weakened.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of October, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream sulfur price rose significantly, the cost support improved, the downstream hydrofluoric acid and titanium dioxide market declined slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid was average, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to the sulfuric acid analysts of the business community, the short-term sulfuric acid market may rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, mainly finishing.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of September 28, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11266.67 yuan/ton, down 2.03% from September 1, down 39.43% year on year in a three-month cycle, and down 46.60% from the same period last year.

The market price of epichlorohydrin fell slightly in September. In the first half of the month, the price of raw propylene rose, the price of glycerin stayed high, the cost side was supported to some extent, the market supply side was sufficient, but the demand side was weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand dragged down the weak market operation. The downstream prepared goods in an orderly manner before the festival, and returned after the festival. The market was mainly cautious. The enthusiasm of downstream inquiry and procurement was general, the market atmosphere was light, and the transaction was limited. In the second half of the month, the cost support remained, the supply side was sufficient, the downstream price was just in need of replenishment, and the market trading atmosphere was flat. Near the end of the month, the enterprises gave up their profits and lowered their stocks, and the downstream stock preparation was gradually approaching the end. The market trading atmosphere was light, and the market fluctuated in a narrow range.

On September 27, the benchmark price of upstream propylene was 7530.60 yuan/ton, up 6.06% compared with 7100.60 yuan/ton on September 1.

Downstream epoxy resin, on September 28, the liquid epoxy resin market in East China continued to rise last week, and this week it was put into operation. The mainstream negotiation was conducted at 20400-21000 yuan/ton, and the overall negotiation was the same as the last trading day.

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the cost is still supported at present. Manufacturers mainly reduce their stocks before the holidays. Downstream stock preparation is gradually coming to an end, and market transactions are slowing down. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will operate weakly and stably in the short term. More attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 27, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 1064 yuan/ton, which was 4 yuan/ton lower than that on September 1 (1068 yuan/ton), a drop of 0.37%. Compared with August 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock is 1100 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 36 yuan/ton, or 3.27%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since September (9.1-9.27), the overall performance of the domestic phosphorus ore market has been mainly stable. At the beginning of September, the overall market situation of domestic medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore has slightly declined, and the price of some mining enterprises has decreased by about 10-20 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the main reason for the weakening of the phosphate ore market was that the terminal demand of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market was average, which affected the mentality of the industry. The support for the phosphate ore demand side was loose, and the overall market atmosphere was weaker than that at the end of August.

In the middle and late September, the domestic phosphorus ore market was generally stable and consolidated. The supply in the phosphate rock yard is still tight, with less spot circulation. Some mining enterprises mainly implement early orders, and supply more pre orders. Therefore, the supply side continues to give some support to the phosphate rock market.

As of September 27, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton, and there is also a gap between the price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors. The details need to be negotiated. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is near 850-980 yuan/ton, and the market price of 32% grade phosphate ore is near 1160-1200 yuan/ton. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard is normal, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, since September (9.1-9.26), the domestic yellow phosphorus market has risen as a whole. According to the data monitoring of the business community, on September 26, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 36500 yuan/ton, up 14.45% compared with September 1 (32000 yuan/ton).

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

At present, as the National Day holiday approaches, the logistics and transportation are also stopped. The information in the phosphate rock yard is generally quiet. The phosphate ore data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will continue to operate mainly in a stable way, and more attention should be paid to the information changes in the supply and demand side.

In September, the trend of domestic propane market was mainly downward. Shandong propane market as a whole showed a “downward slide” trend, and it did not rise by a small margin until the end of the month. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of Shandong propane market was 6015.75 yuan/ton on September 1, and 5703.25 yuan/ton on September 26. The monthly drop was 5.19%, up 0.71% compared with the same period last year.

As of September 26, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, September 26

In South China, 5450-5550 yuan/ton

North China, 5650-5800 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5650-5750 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5700-5800 yuan/ton

In September, the domestic propane market was weak as a whole, and the Shandong propane market decreased significantly by 150-300 yuan/ton. There were obvious negative market factors in the month. In terms of the international market, propane and butane both fell in September when the CP was introduced. In addition, the international crude oil market fluctuated in the first half of the month and fell in the second half. The cost was bad for the market. In terms of supply, Shandong Refinery had sufficient supply in September, but in terms of demand, due to the lack of obvious temperature drop, the increase of terminal demand was relatively limited, and the downstream was cautious, mostly wait-and-see, with poor enthusiasm for entering the market. The manufacturer periodically lowered the quotation to stimulate downstream market entry. At the end of the month (26th), affected by the National Day holiday, Shandong propane market stopped falling and rose due to the replenishment operation in the downstream before the holiday.

Saudi Aramco announced in September 2022 that both propane and butane fell. Propane was 650 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous month; Butane was 630 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton from last month.

On the whole, the current CP price is expected to fall in October, and the international crude oil price is lowered, which is bad for the market. The terminal demand in September was not improved enough, the downstream was cautious, and the market trading atmosphere was general. Shandong market has abundant supply within a month. There is a demand for warehouse discharge before the National Day holiday. The downstream market starts replenishment before the National Day holiday. The market trading atmosphere has improved. Shandong propane market has seen a slight increase at the end of the month. It is expected that in the short term, the propane market will be dominated by consolidation, and the adjustment range will be limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of isopropyl alcohol will rise this week. The average price of isopropyl alcohol in China was 7020 yuan/ton last Friday, and 7300 yuan/ton this Friday. The price increased by 3.99% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: Comparison of price trends of acetone and isopropanol

The domestic isopropanol market price continued to rise this week. The price of raw material acetone continued to rise, isopropanol followed closely, and the price continued to rise. Up to now, most of the isopropanol market quotations in Shandong are around 6900-7300 yuan/ton; Most quotations in Jiangsu isopropanol market are about 7500-7600 yuan/ton. Most factories suspend external quotation. Internationally, on September 20, the US isopropyl alcohol market closed stably, while the European isopropyl alcohol market closed weakly.

In terms of raw material acetone, the price of acetone increased this week. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the average price of acetone last Friday was 5340 yuan/ton, and this Friday was 5540 yuan/ton. The price rose within the week by 3.75%. This week, the main domestic acetone markets showed different gains, most of which continued to rise. The spot supply on the market is still tight, and the holder cannot offer low prices, but he also intends to make profits by actively shipping. The terminal just needs to purchase, and the short-term acetone is expected to be strong.

In terms of raw propylene, according to the monitoring of the business community, as of this Friday, the mainstream quotation of propylene (Shandong) market was 7400-7450 yuan/ton, the market price was stable and the overall market was stable. According to propylene analysts from Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative, after a wave of rebound to maintain stability, the propylene market is expected to rise slightly in the future, boosted by the “gold nine silver ten” in the chemical industry.

3、 Future market forecast

Isopropyl alcohol analyst from Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believes that at present, the price of raw material acetone has risen, while propylene has temporarily stabilized. Domestic isopropanol on-site cost support is strong. It is expected that the isopropanol market will be strong and upward in the short term. Pay attention to the subsequent raw material market trend.