The market of polybutadiene rubber rose slightly in September. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of cis polybutadiene rubber was 13020 yuan/ton as of September 29, up 2.36% from 12720 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Although the downstream commencement in Jinjiu peak season is not as good as that in previous years, it has slightly increased compared with the early stage, which has a certain need for support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the raw material price rose significantly, which promoted the rise of cis polybutadiene rubber on the cost side; In the middle of the month, some enterprises started to shut down their Shunding plants and reduce the load, reducing the pressure on the supply side of Shunding, and supporting the Shunding market; At the end of the month, the price of raw materials fell sharply, and the rise of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was limited by the drag of cost.

Supply side: In September, the supply side pressure of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was high before and low after. In the early stage, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber enterprises started to work normally. In the middle and late days, Hopu and Zhenhua cis-1,4-polybutadiene devices began to operate under reduced load; Sichuan Petrochemical will stop for a short time, and Taixiang Yubu will stop for maintenance in the middle of the year; Although Qixiang Tengda has newly put into production, it mainly maintains first-line operation. The pressure on the domestic supply side of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber eased in the middle and late ten days. However, in October, Zhejiang Petrochemical 100000 t/a cis-1,4-polybutadiene unit with 50000 t/year capacity was planned to be commissioned, which may have an impact on the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market in October.

On the cost side, the butadiene price in September was first high and then low. At the end of the month, it fell by 4.14% compared with the beginning of the month. The cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber support turned from strong to weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 29, the price of butadiene was 8303 yuan/ton, 4.14% lower than the 8662 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the month was 9277 yuan/ton.

The natural rubber market rose slightly in September, which had more influence on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. As of September 29, the price was 12366 yuan/ton, up 4.71% from 11810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: In the peak season of Jinjiu, domestic tire enterprises started to work slightly, with full steel tires starting at around 60% and semi steel tires starting at around 65%, which is supportive of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber.

Future market forecast: The analysts of the business community believe that although the new Shunding device will bring further pressure to the supply side in October, the downstream of the traditional peak season of Jinjiuyinshi has a certain need for support for Shunding Rubber. In addition, the probability of international energy risks driving up domestic petrochemical costs is high, so it is expected that Shunding Rubber will have a wave of upward trend in the later period.