Futures:
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Figure 1: Trend of 2301 contract of natural rubber futures in September 2022
Main trend: In September, the natural rubber futures generally rose sharply first, then retreated and continued to fluctuate in a small range. On the first day, the main price was 13270 yuan/ton, the highest in the middle of the month was nearly 13500 yuan/ton, and on the 30th, the main price was 13135 yuan/ton, down about 1%.
goods in stock:
Figure 2: Trend of natural rubber spot commodity index since 2022
Commodity index: According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on September 29 was 36.67, up 0.03 points from yesterday, down 63.33% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, and up 34.42% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Figure 3: Trend of mainstream natural rubber prices in September 2022
Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the business agency, the spot market of domestic natural rubber (Standard 1) in the East China market in September showed an upward trend of shock, and the trend was weak due to the callback at the end of the month. The market reported 11810 yuan/ton on the first day and 12310 yuan/ton on the 30th, with a monthly increase of 4.23%; The highest price of this month is 12400 yuan/ton on the 27th, and the lowest price is 11702 yuan/ton on the 7th, with the maximum monthly amplitude of 5.96%. Among them, the first ten days saw a slight downward trend of 0.88%: the mainstream quotation in the East China market was slightly adjusted from 11810 yuan/ton to 11702 yuan/ton, only about 100 yuan/ton; In the middle of the year, it rose 3.64% strongly: East China reported 12150 yuan/ton on the 11th and 12132 yuan/ton on the 20th; In the last ten days, the fluctuation range was 1.57%. On the 21st, East China reported 12120 yuan/ton, and on the 30th, 12310 yuan/ton.
Figure 4: Weekly K Histogram of Natural Rubber Market in 2022
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Industrial factors: according to the monitoring of the business community, the supply of natural rubber at home and abroad was strong in September, and the price of glue did not change much. Thailand glue was about 45.5-45.7 Baht/kg, and Hainan glue was about 11000 yuan/ton; The arrival of goods at the port has increased, the spot circulation is smooth, and there are still goods arriving at the port after the festival, the spot inventory has accumulated and the order delay continues to arrive at the port; Although the operating rate of finished products of downstream tire enterprises rose slightly in the month, the new purchase volume did not increase significantly due to weak demand orders and sufficient inventory in the factory, and the purchase demand before the festival was lower than that of the previous “Golden Ninth”; Although there is typhoon in the production area in the month, it lasts for a short time and the rubber price rises and falls rapidly. On the whole, the natural rubber market fluctuates slightly in this month.
Figure 5: Trend Chart of International Crude Oil Mainstream Prices in Recent March 2022
Macro factors: In September, the international crude oil futures continued to plummet by nearly 10%. In the month, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures fell below the $80 threshold, hitting a low point since January 10, and the oil price fell for four consecutive weeks, the longest decline since this year. The market is increasingly worried about the economic downturn, and the oil price has been falling constantly against the background of continued geopolitical deterioration. Since the third quarter, WTI has fallen by more than 20%. According to the analysis, the oil price will still seek a balance between the supply shortage and the demand recession expectation in the future, and the superposition of interest rate increase cycle, geopolitical tension and other factors will make the oil market more volatile. In 2022, the continuation of the U.S. monetary policy will continue to depress oil prices. In the medium and long term, oil prices may still have opportunities. On the one hand, the supply side is favorable, and once demand rebounds, oil prices will continue to rise.
Figure 6: Comparison Chart of Annual Spot Market Trend of Natural Rubber from 2020 to 2022
Future market forecast: considering the recent downstream tire orders and purchase demand status, it is unlikely that natural rubber will rise significantly without major extreme weather impact and downstream demand improvement, and the probability will remain volatile.
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