At 24:00 on November 5, the domestic oil product market price was lowered, but the international crude oil price rose as a whole, the domestic oil product market bullish sentiment rose, and the gasoline and diesel oil prices rose as a whole. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on November 6 was 5213 yuan / ton, up 0.73% from the beginning of the week; on November 9, the price of diesel oil was 4636 yuan / ton, up 1.74% from the beginning of the week.

The sharp rise in international crude oil prices this week is mainly due to trump’s claim that he has won the US presidential election, mainly considering Trump’s sanctions against Iran and his positive attitude towards the implementation of OPEC + production reduction. At the same time, EIA data showed that the US commercial crude oil inventory data also had a significant positive effect on oil prices, and the US crude oil inventory fell sharply. The good news in the later part of the week was exhausted, and the international oil price was slightly reduced. However, the overall international oil price rose, with WTI crude oil price increasing by 3.77% and Brent crude oil price rising by 3.98%.

In terms of gasoline demand, the weather turned cold, and the number of car trips increased slightly, but the boosting effect on the gasoline market demand was very limited. In addition, the implementation of price adjustment and reduction of domestic refined oil, the wholesale and retail price of gasoline was reduced, and the terminal market was purchased on demand; in terms of diesel demand, the domestic weather was getting colder, and outdoor operations such as road engineering and infrastructure construction entered the rush period, and the demand for diesel oil was good, plus international crude oil The domestic diesel price has a good upward trend, but the overall supply of diesel oil market is sufficient, and the rising range of diesel price is limited.

As of October 30, the average start-up load of the daily decompression unit was about 75%, and the start-up load of the refinery increased slightly, and the domestic refined oil supply was relatively sufficient.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes: affected by the foreign epidemic situation, the international crude oil demand is not good. In the short term, the international crude oil will continue to be under pressure, and the domestic demand for refined oil is lack of good support. It is expected that the domestic oil product price will be stable and small in the short term.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: P value curve of lithium hydroxide products)

2、 Market analysis

The market of lithium hydroxide remained stable this week. As of November 6, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 54666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, and fell by 4.09% year-on-year in a half year cycle, according to the data of the business club’s bulk list. This week, the turnover of lithium hydroxide Market was limited, and the market remained stable for the time being.

The upstream lithium carbonate, according to the data monitoring of the business agency: on November 5, the price of lithium carbonate remained stable. On November 5, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 39500 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on November 1 was 39500 yuan / ton). On November 5, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 44200 yuan / ton, which remained stable compared with the beginning of the week (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China on November 1 was 44200 yuan / ton).

On November 5, the commodity price index of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 75.44, which was the same as yesterday, 13.67% lower than 87.39 (2019-07-02), and 1.55% higher than the lowest point of 74.29 on September 20, 2020. (Note: the period refers to January 1, 2013 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on November 5, 2020, there were 15 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose on a month on month basis in the list of commodity prices up and down on November 5, 2020. The top three commodities were 1,4-butanediol (3.32%), styrene (3.13%) and crude benzene (2.35%). There were 8 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products were DMF (- 7.41%), propylene oxide (- 4.05%), propylene glycol (- 2.50%). The average rise and fall was 0.05%.

3、 Future forecast

Lithium hydroxide analysts of the business club believe that the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is still stable in the near future, the cost side has some support, and the downstream demand is flat. It is expected that the industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market will be stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club, the price of aniline is stable this week. On October 25, the price of aniline in Shandong was 6600-6700 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 6700-6800 yuan / ton; on October 30, the price of aniline in Shandong was 6600-6700 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 6700-6800 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene showed a downward trend this week, mainly driven by the drop in crude oil. Although the price rise of styrene in the downstream has brought benefits, the fundamentals of pure benzene itself are weak, the entry of downstream units is delayed, the port inventory is high, and the market focus is weak. On Sunday (November 1), the listed price of pure benzene was 3350-3650 yuan / ton (the average price was 3575 yuan / ton), down 50 yuan / ton or 1.38% from last week.

The price of nitric acid has been rising since the middle of September. On Friday (October 30), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 1616.67 yuan / ton, up 33.34 yuan / ton or 2.11% compared with last week.

Last week, King Jinling had a set of aniline plant restart, market supply tension eased, prices began to stabilize. Aniline prices continue to maintain stable this week, enterprises no pressure to ship, supply and demand balance.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, the port pressure of pure benzene remains unchanged, and the process of de stocking is slow. In addition, the price difference between internal and external markets is large, and the import pressure is increasing. However, in November, the downstream is expected to have new demand, which has a certain support for the price of pure benzene, and the pure benzene has a good resistance to fall. It is expected that the trend of pure benzene will remain weak and stable next week.

There are more stops in aniline plant and less market supply. The downstream profit is good, the operating rate is high, and the demand for aniline is well supported. It is expected that aniline prices will continue to rise next week.

1、 Price trend

PS market trend performance is light, the quotation is stable. The downstream continues to purchase on demand, and the overall trading performance of the market is poor. Business bearish future market, the actual operation maintenance stability.

2、 Market analysis

PS market trend is stable, Zhanjiang Sino US PS ex factory price, 525 quotation is 8300 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of CITIC Guoan PS is 7950 yuan / T.

In August 2020, China’s export volume of PS (polystyrene) was about 4000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 0100 tons and a year-on-year increase of 2.56%. From January to August 2020, the total export volume was 21800 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 4400 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.79%.

3、 Future forecast

PS market operation is generally stable, downstream buyers demand is not high, in the case of low shipment, adhere to short-term prudent operation.

The average price of TDI market in East China on the 30th was 16666.67 yuan / ton, down 6.54% compared with 17833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 28.53% higher than last year, according to the data from the bulk list of business associations. On October 29, the TDI commodity index was 88.18, flat with yesterday, down 64.45% from 248.02 (2016-10-19), and 67.77% higher than the lowest point of 52.56 on May 05, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The domestic TDI market is weak, the atmosphere in the market is generally empty, and the mentality of the industry is tangled. At the beginning of the week, the offer is tentatively inclined to the high end, but the downstream buying gas is weak, and the high price transaction is blocked. At present, the maintenance situation of the supplier’s device is still in, the supply is tight, and the export price is on the high side, which supports the market. In terms of polyether, the price is high and the sponge pressure in the downstream is large, which leads to insufficient demand and purchase of TDI. Under multiple news, the mentality of the operators is tangled, and the focus of on-site negotiation goes down.

On the upstream side, the price of toluene continued to decline, the port inventory was high, the pressure of de stocking still existed, the demand for blended oil and solvent in the downstream was general, the price was slightly weak, and the market was weak.

Business agency data analysis: at present, the domestic TDI market is weak and wait-and-see, the market mentality is empty, the dealers’ offer is lower, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is weak, and the domestic TDI market is weak in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market of potassium nitrate showed a downward trend in October. At the beginning of the month, the domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 4162.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 4100.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.5%. The current price was 1.5% lower than that of last year, and the current price was 6.02% lower than that of last year.

On the whole, potassium nitrate plant market did not fall significantly according to the market situation of potassium nitrate plant, but the potassium nitrate Market did not fall significantly in October. According to the quotation of domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers (4400-3900 yuan per week), according to different business quotation of domestic manufacturers.

Recently, the actual transaction of potassium chloride market is not good. The ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 1850 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is mainly demanding, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market kinetic energy is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable. Limited support for potassium nitrate.

Recently, the supply of potassium chloride port supply is relatively sufficient, and the market is in a high consolidation. Domestic potash fertilizer market new deal is not positive. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will decline slightly in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club. For more price details, please contact relevant manufacturers for consultation.)

1、 Price trend

The factory price of octanol in Shandong Province fell this week. This week, the average price of octanol mainstream factory quotation in Shandong decreased from 7533.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7516.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.22%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.37% compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol market fell this week, Oct. 23 octanol commodity index was 55.27.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the main octanol manufacturer’s factory quotation in Shandong Province fell this week: Jianlan chemical’s offer of octanol was 7500 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s offer of octanol was 7450 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 50 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng’s offer of octanol was 7600 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

Judging from the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol fell this week, with the quotation falling from 7352.73 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7321.82 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.42%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.73% over the same period last year. Upstream raw material market prices fell, affected by the supply and demand side, had a negative impact on octanol prices.

Octanol downstream market, DOP factory price fell this week. DOP quotation fell from 7466.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7433.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.45% compared with the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for octanol procurement weakened, octanol demand was general, and future market operators were more likely to wait for DOP trend.

3、 Future forecast

In late October, the market trend of octanol in Shandong Province was mainly fluctuating. Upstream propylene market fell, raw material support weakened, downstream DOP market also fell slightly, downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened, octanol supply was normal. Octanol analysts believe that: in the late October of Shandong octanol market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact, octanol market or a small shock down.

According to the data of business agency, as of October 23, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 3575.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 0.35% from the beginning of the week.

On October 23, the fuel oil commodity index was 72.41, down 37.53% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), and 57.14% higher than 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

As of October 23, the support of domestic marine demand and power generation demand for fuel oil 180CST was weakened, and the market was willing to call back. According to the business agency, as of October 23, the self raised low sulfur price of 180 CST fuel oil in Ningbo area was 3550 yuan / ton; that of 120 CST fuel oil was 3600 yuan / ton; that of Shanghai area was 3550 yuan / ton; that of fuel oil was 120 CST The quotation of self lifting low sulfur is 3650 yuan / ton.

This week, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell, dragging the price of fuel oil. WTI crude oil contract closed at $39.78/barrel on December 23, down 2.79% from $40.92/barrel at the beginning of the week, according to the business agency.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased from the previous week, forming a certain support for fuel oil. It is understood that as of October 21, Singapore’s stock of residual fuel oil (excluding asphalt), including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, decreased by 335000 barrels to 24.317 million barrels, the lowest in nearly two weeks. During the week, inventories of light distillates, including naphtha, gasoline and reformate, fell by 540000 barrels to 13.299 million barrels, the lowest in nearly eight months. Mid distillate stocks fell 312000 barrels in the week to an eight week low of 14.814 million barrels.

Aftermarket forecast: energy analysts of business agency believe that the current severe epidemic situation in Europe and the United States, the prospect of crude oil and fuel oil demand is worrying, forming a negative impact on the later fuel market. However, with the arrival of the domestic cold winter season, the heating power demand may form a certain support for the fuel oil market. Overall, it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will continue to be weak in the short term, and there will be an upward opportunity in the medium term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on October 23, the average price of domestic LNG was 3223.33 yuan / ton, up 7.8% compared with the beginning of the week (19th), up 34.12% month on month, and 14.12% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic LNG market is still in a continuous upward mode, with the price rising momentum not decreasing. Many places have risen to above 3000 yuan. Shaanxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang, etc. have increased significantly. The price of liquid plants has increased by 100-250 yuan / ton during the week, which pushes up the sentiment. Since October 20, the benchmark price of feed gas has been raised by 0.1 yuan / m3 to 1.38 yuan / m3, which has boosted the market once again. Meanwhile, the price of inlet gas has also shown an upward trend, driving up the atmosphere of LNG market. At present, some cities in northern China have begun heating, the demand is expected to increase, the downstream replenishment is positive, and the supply of liquid plants is relatively sufficient. This week, the construction starts to improve, and there are not many maintenance enterprises. The liquid plant has no pressure in inventory, and the goods can be transported smoothly. The overall market mentality is good, and the price is rising steadily.

Data show that natural gas production has accelerated, and the growth rate of natural gas import has fallen. In September, 14.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, 3.9 percentage points faster than that of the previous month; the average daily output was 490 million cubic meters, an increase of 30 million cubic meters on a month on month basis. From January to September, 137.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. In September, 8.66 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 5.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 7.7% lower than that of the previous month. From January to September, 73.73 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 3.7% year on year.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 23, the average price in Inner Mongolia is around 3210 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; in Shaanxi, the average price is around 3340 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Shanxi, the average price is around 3360 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Xinjiang, the average price is around 3630 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Ningxia, the average price is around 3220 yuan / ton, the price is rising, and the average price in Sichuan is 2790 yuan Around yuan / ton, the price is stable temporarily; the price of many places is rising.

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from October 23 to October 19

Inner Mongolia Shitai: 550000 cubic meters / day: 3200 yuan / ton: 2970 yuan / ton: 230 yuan

Star energy 1 million cubic meters / day 3250 yuan / ton 3000 yuan / ton 250 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai 1.2 million cubic meters / day 3200 yuan / ton 2970 yuan / ton 230 yuan

Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 3220 yuan / ton 3000 yuan / ton 220 yuan

Shengdazizhou: 1 million cubic meters / day: 3330 yuan / ton: 3080 yuan / ton: 250 yuan

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2780 yuan / ton: 2780 yuan / ton

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 3360 yuan / ton 3080 yuan / ton 280 yuan

Qinshui Xinao — 3350 yuan / ton 3100 yuan / ton 250 yuan

Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million m3 / D RMB 3210 / T RMB 3000 / T 210

Most downstream products show an upward trend

Methanol, recently, the market price of methanol increased slightly due to the favorable factors such as the maintenance of overseas units and the continuous storage of ports. At present, most traders ship at high prices, and methanol analysts of business associations predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

Urea and upstream liquid ammonia have been consolidated at a high level recently, with good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some units were overhauled and some of them were in short supply. According to the business association, the current agricultural demand has been followed up, and the downstream industry’s enthusiasm for urea procurement is fair. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

For dichloromethane, at present, the domestic dichloromethane market is not started very high, the market inventory pressure is not big, and the manufacturers have good intention to raise prices, but the downstream market acceptance is not high, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is aggravated, and it is expected that the domestic dichloromethane market will still run stably in a short time.

Ethylene, current crude oil: Libya’s crude oil production may increase significantly, depressing the market atmosphere. Crude oil decline can not form a support for the ethylene market, so business agency data analysts predict that the next ethylene external price will mainly fall below.

3、 Future forecast

LNG analysts from the business club believe that: with the opening of winter heating, some areas have begun to fuel and replenish, and the demand is gradually increasing. The downstream procurement is more active, the production and sales of liquid plants are not under pressure, the market atmosphere is good, and the price is pushed up strongly. In addition, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas is generally rising, and it is expected that domestic liquefied natural gas prices will rise in the short term Natural gas market may continue to rise.

1、 Price trend

Most PS factory prices in China are stable temporarily, while the firm offers stable, and the poor downstream demand is the main factor hindering the overall market atmosphere to be good.

2、 Market analysis

PS market trend is stable, and the price of PS in Zhanjiang is RMB 8400 / ton. The factory price of CITIC Guoan PS is 7950 yuan / ton for 525.

In August 2020, China’s PS (polystyrene) export volume was about 40000 tons, an increase of 01000 tons, an increase of 2.56% year-on-year. The total export volume from January to August 2020 was 21800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 44000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.79%.

3、 Post market forecast

PS market trend is stable, downstream factories into the market inquiry is general, the on-site mentality is cautious. It is expected that PS will be stable in operation, and it may be increased in a narrow range in some areas.