1、 Price trend

 

According to the data of business agency, on October 23, the average price of domestic LNG was 3223.33 yuan / ton, up 7.8% compared with the beginning of the week (19th), up 34.12% month on month, and 14.12% lower than the same period last year.

 

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2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

This week, the domestic LNG market is still in a continuous upward mode, with the price rising momentum not decreasing. Many places have risen to above 3000 yuan. Shaanxi, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Xinjiang, etc. have increased significantly. The price of liquid plants has increased by 100-250 yuan / ton during the week, which pushes up the sentiment. Since October 20, the benchmark price of feed gas has been raised by 0.1 yuan / m3 to 1.38 yuan / m3, which has boosted the market once again. Meanwhile, the price of inlet gas has also shown an upward trend, driving up the atmosphere of LNG market. At present, some cities in northern China have begun heating, the demand is expected to increase, the downstream replenishment is positive, and the supply of liquid plants is relatively sufficient. This week, the construction starts to improve, and there are not many maintenance enterprises. The liquid plant has no pressure in inventory, and the goods can be transported smoothly. The overall market mentality is good, and the price is rising steadily.

 

Data show that natural gas production has accelerated, and the growth rate of natural gas import has fallen. In September, 14.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, 3.9 percentage points faster than that of the previous month; the average daily output was 490 million cubic meters, an increase of 30 million cubic meters on a month on month basis. From January to September, 137.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. In September, 8.66 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 5.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 7.7% lower than that of the previous month. From January to September, 73.73 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 3.7% year on year.

 

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of October 23, the average price in Inner Mongolia is around 3210 yuan / ton, and the price is rising; in Shaanxi, the average price is around 3340 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Shanxi, the average price is around 3360 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Xinjiang, the average price is around 3630 yuan / ton, the price is rising; in Ningxia, the average price is around 3220 yuan / ton, the price is rising, and the average price in Sichuan is 2790 yuan Around yuan / ton, the price is stable temporarily; the price of many places is rising.

 

Enterprise capacity rose and fell from October 23 to October 19

Inner Mongolia Shitai: 550000 cubic meters / day: 3200 yuan / ton: 2970 yuan / ton: 230 yuan

Star energy 1 million cubic meters / day 3250 yuan / ton 3000 yuan / ton 250 yuan

Inner Mongolia Sentai 1.2 million cubic meters / day 3200 yuan / ton 2970 yuan / ton 230 yuan

Zhongyuan green energy 3 million cubic meters / day 3220 yuan / ton 3000 yuan / ton 220 yuan

Shengdazizhou: 1 million cubic meters / day: 3330 yuan / ton: 3080 yuan / ton: 250 yuan

Dazhou Huixin: 1 million cubic meters / day: 2780 yuan / ton: 2780 yuan / ton

Ningxia Hongxing 1 million cubic meters / day 3360 yuan / ton 3080 yuan / ton 280 yuan

Qinshui Xinao — 3350 yuan / ton 3100 yuan / ton 250 yuan

Naomao Lake in Xinjiang (east of Lanzhou) 1.5 million m3 / D RMB 3210 / T RMB 3000 / T 210

Most downstream products show an upward trend

 

Methanol, recently, the market price of methanol increased slightly due to the favorable factors such as the maintenance of overseas units and the continuous storage of ports. At present, most traders ship at high prices, and methanol analysts of business associations predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

 

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Urea and upstream liquid ammonia have been consolidated at a high level recently, with good cost support. Domestic demand is fair, agricultural demand in some areas has followed up, and industrial demand follows the market and purchases on demand. In terms of supply, some units were overhauled and some of them were in short supply. According to the business association, the current agricultural demand has been followed up, and the downstream industry’s enthusiasm for urea procurement is fair. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

 

For dichloromethane, at present, the domestic dichloromethane market is not started very high, the market inventory pressure is not big, and the manufacturers have good intention to raise prices, but the downstream market acceptance is not high, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is aggravated, and it is expected that the domestic dichloromethane market will still run stably in a short time.

 

Ethylene, current crude oil: Libya’s crude oil production may increase significantly, depressing the market atmosphere. Crude oil decline can not form a support for the ethylene market, so business agency data analysts predict that the next ethylene external price will mainly fall below.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

LNG analysts from the business club believe that: with the opening of winter heating, some areas have begun to fuel and replenish, and the demand is gradually increasing. The downstream procurement is more active, the production and sales of liquid plants are not under pressure, the market atmosphere is good, and the price is pushed up strongly. In addition, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas is generally rising, and it is expected that domestic liquefied natural gas prices will rise in the short term Natural gas market may continue to rise.

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