Trade name: urea

Latest price (July 12): 2720.00 yuan / ton

On July 12, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong increased by 30 yuan / ton compared with the quotation on July 9, with a decrease of 1.12%, and a year-on-year increase of 64.85%. The price of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas has risen slightly recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, but the agricultural demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the urea plant maintenance is still the same, the start-up recovery is slow, the daily output is still less than 160000 tons, the supply side is tight, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. International: it is said that India will issue a new round of import bidding this month, which will boost the domestic market mentality. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is weakened, and urea supply is tight.

It is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will rise slightly in the future: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2750 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the price of caustic soda went up. The average price of Shandong market was 527.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 532.5 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price increased by 0.95% and 3.9% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of caustic soda on July 8 was 76.62, up 0.72 points from yesterday, down 62.96% from 206.87 points (November 14, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 17.68% from 65.11 points, the lowest point on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of caustic soda was adjusted. The price of caustic soda in Shandong has been stable for the time being, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 520-620 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is slightly better than before. Now the caustic soda manufacturers adjust their prices according to their own conditions. It is comprehensively estimated that the caustic soda will be mainly operated in a narrow range in the future. In Hebei area, the market of caustic soda mainly fluctuates in a narrow range. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 530-650 yuan / ton, and it is expected that caustic soda will continue to be consolidated in the future.

Downstream: due to the demand of downstream alumina for caustic soda inventory, caustic soda manufacturers are mainly active in shipping, and the trading atmosphere is acceptable. There is a good demand for caustic soda. At the present stage, the price of caustic soda is running with consolidation.

According to the price monitoring of business association, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 26th week of 2021 (6.28-7.2), there were 2 kinds of commodities that rose, 1 kind of commodities that fell, and 2 kinds of commodities that rose or fell to 0. The main commodities rising were: Light Soda (1.95%), PVC (0.70%); The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 0.36%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.46%.

Business community analysts believe that in the near future, Shandong has been mainly operating in a narrow range, and the demand for downstream alumina is acceptable. Manufacturers in other regions adjust their quotations according to their own conditions. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to be consolidated and operated in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data of the commodity list of the business society, the market of formaldehyde in Shandong has recently fallen. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1367.50 yuan / ton on the 6th, and 1357.50 yuan / ton on the 7th, down 0.73%. The current price is up 4.42% month on month, and the current price is up 57.24% year on year.

Recently, the domestic market price of formaldehyde has fallen. As of July 7, the mainstream market price in eastern Shandong is 1330-1400 yuan / ton. Recently, the formaldehyde Market Trading atmosphere is general, the transaction situation is not satisfactory, formaldehyde market showed a downward trend.

Upstream methanol situation: in the methanol market of southern Shandong, part of the price was negotiated to 2490-2500 yuan / ton in cash. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to 2450-2490 yuan / ton and sent them to cash exchange. The logistics goods offer price is not available for the time being. There is no obvious change in the fundamentals, and the operators wait and see. The main turnover of methanol market in central Shandong is 2320-2340 yuan / ton, which is delivered to cash. The turnover is light and the negotiation is limited. The transaction price of methanol market in North Central Shandong Province is 2300-2320 yuan / ton, which is sent to spot exchange, and some of them are in wait-and-see mood. Methanol market shock consolidation, the overall trading atmosphere is light. Poor support for formaldehyde.

At present, due to the influence of environmental protection control, the plate factories in Shandong Province have a general starting situation, poor demand and limited purchasing capacity. At present, the atmosphere of Shandong formaldehyde trading market is relatively cold, the transaction is not good, the formaldehyde manufacturers are difficult to ship, and the focus of formaldehyde market is constantly moving down.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol market is weak, and the downstream plate factory starts to tighten, so the demand is not good. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of business society expect that the formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall in the near future.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of June 30, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2766.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that on June 1, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.26% in the three-month cycle. In July, the formic acid market rose. As of July 6, the average price quoted by enterprises was 3000 yuan / ton, up 1.12% compared with the previous trading day.

In June, the domestic formic acid market remained stable as a whole. In the first half of June, the price quoted by the shippers was stable at a high level, and the downstream just needed to buy, so the market trading atmosphere was acceptable. In late June, the trend of raw materials was strong, the shipment of enterprises was stable, and the market transaction was orderly. Under the stable quotation of main factories, the domestic formic acid market continued to be stable in the whole month. In July, the market performance was fair, and the market rose slightly.

As of July 5, the reference price of upstream caustic soda was 527.50, up 1.93% compared with July 1 (517.50); On July 5, the domestic liquid ammonia market was stable, and the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong did not change much. Today, the amount of ammonia in this area is moderate, and the enterprises are shipping normally. At present, the inventory is normal, and the quotations of Shandong large factories are generally stable; The upstream sulfuric acid market rose on July 5 in Shandong Province, and the upstream sulfur market rose slightly in the near future. Some sulfuric acid manufacturers were under started, and the load was reduced. The downstream bromine market gradually rose, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was good; The reference price of upstream methanol was 2555.00 on July 5, which was the same as that on July 1.

Business community formic acid analysts believe that at present, the raw material price is relatively strong, the cost support is strong, and the market transaction is active. It is expected that the formic acid market will be mainly strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (July 5): 2760.00 yuan / ton

On July 5, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong fell by 40 yuan / ton, or 1.43%, compared with the quotation on July 2. The upper reaches of coal prices recently high consolidation, cost support to strengthen. From the aspect of demand, the demand of agriculture in different areas has been cooling down, and the demand of agriculture has been decreasing; The price of compound fertilizer in the lower reaches rose, and the rubber sheet factories and melamine enterprises started to work fairly well, most of which were used as soon as they were mined. In terms of supply, the daily output of urea plants is still lower than that of the same period last year, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also kept at a low position. Affected by the shortage of coal, some areas begin to reduce production. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is weakened, and urea supply is tight.

It is expected that the ex factory price of urea in Shandong will drop slightly in the future: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2750 yuan / ton.

Acetic anhydride prices stabilize

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of acetic anhydride rose continuously in June, and stabilized in the last ten days. As of June 30, the price of acetic anhydride was 12166.67 yuan / ton, up by 1.96% compared with the price of 11933.33 yuan / ton on June 1. In June, the market of acetic anhydride was stable and fell.

Acetic acid prices peaked and fell

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, the price of acetic acid rose first and then fell in June, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Methanol prices fell in June

It can be seen from methanol price trend chart that methanol price rebounded after falling in June, acetic anhydride cost fell, acetic anhydride falling pressure increased, and acetic anhydride price fell in the future.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, believes that acetic acid price fluctuated and rose in early June, methanol price fell sharply, and acetic anhydride cost fluctuated and rose in early June; The price of acetic acid dropped sharply in the last ten days, the price of methanol fluctuated and stabilized, the cost of acetic anhydride fell in the last ten days, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride price increased. Generally speaking, the power of acetic anhydride market in the first ten days is greater, the price of acetic anhydride rises in shock, the cost of acetic anhydride drops in the second ten days, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride market increases. The market is expected to fall in July.

With the change of purchasing and marketing mentality, the decline of BDO market in June slowed down. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 19975 yuan / ton on June 1, and 17485 yuan / ton on June 30. The price fell by 12.47% in the month, and the decline slowed down, with a year-on-year price increase of 120.21%. According to the latest price, the mainstream negotiation of bulk water supply in East China is 17500-18000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream negotiation of bulk water supply in South China is 17500-18000 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of business community, in the list of commodity price rise and fall in June 2021, there were 53 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, among which 29 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 30.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three commodities were potassium sulfate (32.07%), dimethyl carbonate (21.18%) and butadiene (18.68%). A total of 35 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 13 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three products were yellow phosphorus (- 22.60%), epoxy resin (- 13.88%) and acetone (- 12.78%). The average rise and fall of this month was 2.53%.

This month, the domestic BDO market was affected by the change in the purchasing and marketing mentality of the industry. The decline continued in the first half of the month, then turned sharply in the second half of the month, and rebounded to the bottom and continued to rise. In the first and middle of this month, in addition to the temporary shutdown of Xinjiang Meike phase II to replace the catalyst, a number of maintenance units were restarted and stabilized in May, and the market supply was abundant. Traders’ fear of falling is aggravating, and the pace of shipment is speeding up.

Since March 2021, the domestic BDO spot market has “fallen to the altar”, and the price has “never recovered”. The BDO market in the first half of 2021 presents a completely different trend from that in previous years, with ups and downs, complicated and confusing.

In terms of devices, Xinjiang Tianye’s 3 + 60000 ton device produced products in the first ten days of June and expanded its capacity, while the second 60000 ton device has not been restarted yet. The Tunhe installation in Lanshan, Xinjiang, is now in stable operation and is scheduled to be overhauled for one month on July 25. Xinye plant in Xinjiang is in full load operation and scheduled to be overhauled for 20 days on July 25. Dongyuan science and technology plant in Inner Mongolia has been running stably, and the catalyst is planned to be replaced from July 20 to 30. The start-up of Yanchang oil plant in Shaanxi Province is unstable, and the current load is 30-40%. Henan Kaixiang plant was restarted on June 11 and operated stably.

On the upstream side, the trend of methanol market in the mainland and coastal areas was slightly different in June. The mainland market fell first and then rose, while the coastal market basically followed the trend of futures. In June, the market price of calcium carbide rose before and then stabilized, with an increase of 600 yuan / ton. So far, the mainstream ex factory price in Wuhai area is 4500-4600 yuan / ton. Raw materials have a positive impact on BDO market.

On the downstream side, the PBAT industry is constrained by cost pressure and weak demand, the new production capacity is put into operation slowly, the overall start-up of other downstream industries has little change, and there is no obvious demand increment, so the contract procurement is maintained. Because the terminal’s ability to accept high price raw materials is weak, and the cost transfer is hindered, many downstream industries, such as PTMEG, PBT, PBAT, etc., follow the decline of raw materials to reduce their prices. Under the heavy pressure of cost, the prices of raw materials are seriously depressed.

In July, many units were shut down for maintenance or catalyst replacement, and the supply decreased. Moreover, the factory controlled the pace of shipment, supported the market, mainly delivered to terminal customers, and the supply of spot goods was tight. Traders were still reluctant to sell, and the quotation continued to explore. However, there are still conflicts with high prices in the downstream, and most of them are small orders. BDO analysts of business news agency expect that the domestic BDO market will bottom out and rebound in July, with a narrow upward trend.

Commodity name: chlorinated paraffin

Latest price: 6033 yuan / ton

Commodity index: on June 30, the CPS commodity index was 89.83, which was flat with yesterday, down 17.91% from 109.43 (2013-12-03), the highest point in the cycle, and 40.69% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016（ Note: the cycle refers to June 1, 2012 to present)

Analysis points: the price of caprolactam is stable today. The price of wax in raw liquid increased and the supply decreased. At present, the price of liquid wax is at a high level. The liquid chlorine Market of raw materials is stable, supply is reduced, and the price is low consolidation. The chlorinated paraffin enterprises are stable in delivery, and the downstream demand is limited, and the transaction volume is general.

Future market forecast: at present, the price of raw materials varies, the downstream of chlorinated paraffin is not followed up enough, and the market is not good news for now. In the short term, the stable operation of chlorinated paraffin market is mainly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13800 yuan / ton on June 21, and 13900 yuan / ton on June 27. Caprolactam prices rose 0.72% this week.

2、 Market analysis

As of June 27, the price of caprolactam liquid in Nanjing Dongfang was 14400 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit was in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price 14100 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14100 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year, the plant is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 14100 yuan / ton. The 300000 ton / year unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical caprolactam liquid price 13700 yuan / ton, factory capacity 300000 tons, the actual deal can be discussed.

The price of raw material pure benzene continued to rise this week. On June 20, the price of pure benzene was 7603-7800 yuan / ton (average price 7750 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (June 27), the price of pure benzene was 8050-8150 yuan / ton (average price 8120 yuan / ton), with an average price increase of 370 yuan / ton or 4.77% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 130.68%.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business news agency believe that due to the impact of reduced supply of raw material pure benzene, the price will rise, and the cost support is favorable. The supply of caprolactam is relatively tight due to the overhaul of some caprolactam plants. The demand of downstream PA6 enterprises is acceptable. It is expected that caprolactam may continue to rise in the short term.

The price of acetic anhydride is stable

According to the data monitoring of business society, the acetic anhydride commodity index on June 28 was 241.13, which was flat with yesterday, down 1.35% from the highest point 244.43 (2021-05-10) in the cycle, up 192.00% from the lowest point of 82.58 on September 20, 2016（ Note: the cycle refers to February 1, 2013 to present). This week, the price of acetic anhydride has stabilized. On June 28, the price of acetic anhydride was 12166.67 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with that of June 21, and the market of acetic anhydride stabilized this week.

Acetic acid price trend hit the top and fell

As can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price, the acetic acid price fell this week, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the pressure of acetic anhydride rising decreased and the pressure of decline increased.

Market overview and future market forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with acetic anhydride data from the business agency, said that this week, the price of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, the price of acetic anhydride was temporarily stable, and the pressure on the decline of acetic anhydride increased. Overall, the acetic anhydride market is stable, the subsequent market acetic anhydride market is weak, and the pressure on the decline of acetic anhydride price increases.