1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency: on August 3, the average price of domestic LNG was 5076.67 yuan / ton, down 7.3% from the previous day, up 35.38% month on month, up 106.09% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In early August, the domestic LNG price continued to rise. On August 3, the continuous rise mode was interrupted, and the one-day price decline was 7.3%. Many places such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Ningxia reduced the price. Some liquid plants adjusted the price twice, and the price quickly fell back below 5000 yuan / ton. The market was green in a large area, while the imported gas fluctuated little, and continued to rise slightly. At present, it is still in the off-season, and the domestic liquid price has more than doubled year-on-year. It is difficult to follow up the downstream demand, and the market trading atmosphere has gradually weakened. There is a certain pressure on the sales of the liquid plant, so the price reduction and shipment are looking for good. In the first ten days of August, the feed gas price rose, and there was still support on the cost side, so the downward space of liquid price was limited. At present, 4980-5650 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 4840-5200 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 4920-5500 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 5100-5120 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5000-5550 yuan / ton in Henan and 5750-5800 yuan / ton in Shandong. The inlet gas price is about 4400-5900 yuan / ton. The domestic liquid price is down and the inlet gas price continues to rise.

region Specifications August 3rd August 2nd Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 4980-5650 5350-5650 – 370/0

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4840-5200 5240-5530 – 400/-130

Shanxi liquified natural gas 4920-5500 5250-5530 – 330/-30

Ningxia liquified natural gas 5100-5120 5510-5580 – 410/-460

Henan liquified natural gas 5000-5550 5300-5550 – 300/0

Shandong liquified natural gas 5750-5800 5900-6000 – 120/-200

Recently, the LNG market continued to rise, driving the overall upward trend of downstream products.

Methanol, the methanol market in central Shandong negotiated to 2450-2460 yuan / ton and sent to spot exchange. Most of them wait and see, and the transportation is slightly limited. The reference price of methanol market in central and Northern Shandong is 2450 yuan / ton, which will be sent to spot exchange. The negotiated price of methanol market in southern Shandong fell from 30 yuan / ton to 2500 yuan / ton, and cash exchange was withdrawn from nearby plants. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to 2490-2500 yuan / ton and sent it to spot exchange. The quoted price of logistics goods is not available at present. Downstream wait-and-see, trading in general.

Dichloromethane, the dichloromethane market rose slightly in July. According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the price of dichloromethane was 3796 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 3946 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall month end rose by 3.95% compared with the beginning of the month. Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that although the domestic dichloromethane market supply is stable, the downstream just need support is also relatively stable. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will fluctuate in a narrow range in the later stage.

On August 3, the urea market in Shandong was temporarily stable. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have increased slightly recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, and the agricultural demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber plate plant and melamine enterprises started fairly well, mostly with mining and use, and mainly followed up with an appropriate amount of bargain hunting. From the perspective of supply, urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, the parking and maintenance plants are relatively concentrated, and the daily output of domestic urea has decreased to about 140000 tons. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is tight.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that: at present, it is difficult to follow up the downstream demand, the market trading atmosphere has gradually weakened, there is a certain pressure on the sales of liquid plants, and the price reduction and shipment are looking for good. It is expected that there are still downward expectations in the domestic LNG market in the short term, but the feed gas price rose in early August, and the cost side supports the liquid price, which is not easy to fall deeply.