1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene rose first and then fell this week. On August 1, the price of toluene was 5810 yuan / ton; On Sunday (August 8), the price was 5820 yuan / ton, an increase of 10 yuan / ton or 0.17% over last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 72.19%.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil fell sharply during the week, and the cost support weakened; Downstream demand continued to be weak and market negotiations were light. In the early stage, driven by the reduction of supply in South China, the price rose. With the arrival of ships, the supply increased and the focus fell back. Affected by the epidemic in East China, enterprise shipments were blocked and prices fluctuated in a narrow range.

In terms of external market, as of August 6, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $763 / ton, down US $2 / ton, or 0.26%, compared with July 30.

In terms of crude oil, in terms of crude oil, the spread of delta mutant virus has suppressed the atmosphere of the crude oil market, OPEC + has gradually increased production since August, and negative factors such as the increase of U.S. crude oil inventory have suppressed, resulting in a sharp decline in international oil prices this week. On July 30, Brent fell $5.63 / barrel, or 7.38%; WTI fell US $5.67/barrel, or 7.67%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week. The price of domestic goods was 14750 yuan / ton, down 2.75% from last week and up 22.92% from the same period last year. The domestic TDI market was organized and operated, the atmosphere in the venue was cold, the downstream market entry was weak, the market entry enthusiasm was not high, and there were a few orders in the market.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price rose this week, at 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.82% over last week and 58.7% over the same period last year. As of August 6, the closing prices in Asia were USD 938-940 / T FOB Korea and USD 956-958 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that: at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of U.S. oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and the progress related to the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the US dollar index and stock market linkage.

There is uncertainty in the cost side and there is a little support for toluene; The downstream demand is weak, and the toluene market is difficult to improve in the short term. Overall, toluene is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range next week. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance dynamics of toluene unit, toluene inventory information and the impact of downstream demand on toluene price.