On March 27, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 28th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton on the 28th day. The stable trend of nitric acid price has little effect on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has slightly declined. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has risen slightly, and the market price of liquid ammonia is 3460 yuan/ton on the 28th day. The rising trend of upstream raw material price has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Ammonium nitrate market price trend slightly lower. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen slightly in the near future, but the demand in the downstream is not good, and the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period is expected to be shocked.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of March 26, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5376 yuan/ton. The domestic ethanol market was mainly stable, while the market in some areas was slightly lower.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic alcohol market is stable. Enterprises in Northeast China have normal plant production. At present, the stock of enterprises is not high, the quotation of enterprises is firm, and the market transaction price is stable. Some enterprises in East China have installed parking because of their own reasons, because of strict inspection in Jiangsu, downstream parking has been heard; Baichen device parking in South China market, Guangxi, has strong quotation performance, imports arriving at the port at the end of the month, and downstream demand is light.

Industry chain: Maize: In the short term, maize prices will continue to weaken under pressure. It is expected that from March to early May, maize prices will generally moderately strengthen. But if the Sino-US trade consultation announces positive and good news during this period, the chances of corn prices falling will increase. Therefore, the key to the forecast of corn price overall bullish in March-May is to pay attention to the outcome of Sino-US trade negotiations. Ethyl acetate: The domestic market for ethyl acetate is weak, and the market supply is continuing to be sufficient. The downstream phase purchasing of ethyl acetate has led to the recent market transaction blocked, and some suppliers have been forced to sell at a profit. And the ethyl acetate plant of Soap in Jiangsu resumed full load operation, and the market supply continued to increase.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the raw Maize in Northeast China maintained stable, the cost side was not obviously supported, the enterprise inventory was not high, and the price remained firm in the short term; the plant start-up situation in East China continued to increase, the supply increased, and the short-term market was expected to be weak; the downstream demand in South China was weak, and the short-term market was expected to be weak. Ethanol analysts at business associations expect the short-term market to be weak.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations,

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The terminal demand continues to pick up, the epoxy propane market turnover is positive, smooth shipment, low inventory, today Wanhua East quoted 10300 yuan / ton, Shandong 10000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: Downstream market buy at a low price, good trading atmosphere.

3. Future market forecast:

The propylene oxide Market is expected to be stable and positive in the short term.

Price Trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone dropped sharply this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic price of cyclohexanone was 10,900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 10,500 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price of cyclohexanone fell by 3.67% in the week, 12.50% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market prices fell sharply this week, the overall stability of the crude oil market is better, cost support is still acceptable. This week, the total supply of cyclohexanone manufacturers increased slightly. Haili Dafeng, Jiangsu, shipped normally this week, and export sales increased slightly. Although the inventory pressure was not high, downstream caprolactam manufacturers were more bullish on cyclohexanone. The volume of cyclohexanone purchased in the market was lower than in the earlier period, the speed of manufacturer’s shipment slowed down, the quotation continued to decline, the market transaction price fell, and the solvent market was more on demand. Purchase, the overall volume is scarce, on-site trading atmosphere is flat. Up to now, the mainstream offer in Shandong market has arrived at 10 400-10 500 yuan/ton cash delivery, the mainstream offer in East China market has arrived at 10 600-10 700 yuan/ton cash delivery, and the mainstream negotiation in South China market has arrived at 10 800-10 900 yuan/ton cash delivery.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, this week the price of pure benzene consolidation. In terms of price, the mainstream negotiations in East China range from 4700 yuan to 4750 yuan per ton, while those in Shandong range from 4400 yuan to 4500 yuan per ton. Caprolactam: This week, the domestic caprolactam liquid spot market prices narrowly rebounded. The phenomenon of supply and demand game still exists. The pure benzene market showed a slight strengthening after the shock consolidation in the week, and the cost of caprolactam was slightly supported. Load reduction phenomenon in downstream polymerization plant, slice market overall demand is general, aggregation plant raw material procurement enthusiasm is general, more maintenance follow-up on demand.

3. Future Market Forecast

From the cost point of view, the crude oil market is steadily becoming stronger, and the cost support is still acceptable. On the supply side, the overall supply of cyclohexanone increased slightly this week, together with the slowing down of chemical fibre orders and low turnover. This week, the inventory of manufacturers increased slightly, but the pressure was not great. On the demand side, downstream caprolactam manufacturers shipped generally and the market tended to be stable. On March 25, Nanjing Dongfang, a 200,000-ton caprolactam plant had maintenance plans for cyclohexanone. Demand may decline slightly, and solvent market will purchase more on demand. Cyclohexanone analysts, business associations, predict that the market for cyclohexanone will continue to fall next week, with more caprolactam maintenance plans in April, and cyclohexanone will be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of hydrogen peroxide remained stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide market was 888 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide market was 880 yuan/ton.

This week, the market of hydrogen peroxide tends to be stable. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers is stable. The quotation of positive yuan is 850 yuan/ton, and that of Xinhua is 850 yuan/ton. Luxi quoted 860 yuan/ton, Haineng overhaul is not quoted yet. Anhui region quotes 1000 yuan/ton.

Business society hydrogen peroxide analysts believe that after a wave of upsurge, hydrogen peroxide market tends to stabilize. Terminals demand is general, the future market of hydrogen peroxide soaring power is insufficient, the market is still dominated by narrow oscillation.

On March 13, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 14th, domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, up to 14th day, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton. The stable trend of nitric acid price has little effect on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has slightly declined. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has risen slightly, up to 14th day, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3170 yuan/ton. The rising trend of upstream raw material price has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Ammonium nitrate market price trend slightly lower. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen slightly in the near future, but the demand in the downstream market is not good. They expect that the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period will decrease slightly.

The PX commodity index on March 5 was 72.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.69% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 58.07% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene market in Asia is stable on March 5. The closing price is 1106-1108 USD/ton FOB Korea and 1125-1127 USD/ton CFR China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The fluctuation of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price of p-xylene in the market is fluctuating.

On March 5, the price of WTI crude oil in April fell to $56.56 per barrel, a decline of $0.03. Brent crude oil in May rose to $65.86 per barrel, a rise of $0.19. The price of crude oil slightly declined, which had little impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products, while the price of paraxylene was temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has risen slightly. PTA prices have risen on the 6th day. The average offer price in East China is raised near 6600-6800 yuan/ton. As of the 5th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 80%, and the polyester industry start-up rate is about 80%. In addition, the hobby sales rate has risen. The PTA market price has risen, and the price of PX market is expected to remain volatile in the later period.

Mikhail Leontiev, press secretary of Russian Petroleum Corporation (Russian Petroleum), said on February 28 that Russian Petroleum is willing to cooperate with China in the whole industrial chain covering the fields of oil exploration, exploitation, processing and marketing.

Leontiev was interviewed by reporters at the Vankol Oilfield in Russia’s Krasnoyarsk border area on the same day. Leontiev said that in recent years, the Russian and Chinese energy sector has continuously strengthened exchanges. The Russian-Chinese Energy Business Forum held in Beijing in November last year further promoted the direct dialogue between the two countries’energy industry, and improved the efficiency of implementing cooperation projects and attracting investment.

Leontiev said that China’s oil drilling and oil service equipment market is developing rapidly. Russian Petroleum has a strong interest in these two types of equipment from China. It has signed supply contracts with several Chinese enterprises and imported drilling equipment, drilling pumps and oil pipelines.

According to reports, Vankol Oilfield is exploited and operated by a subsidiary company of Russian Petroleum. Its recoverable reserves of oil and gas condensate oil amount to 480 million tons, with an annual output of more than 20 million tons. Vankol Oilfield has been exporting oil to China through Russia’s East Siberia-Pacific pipeline since 2009. It is currently one of the main oil sources for the pipeline to transport oil to China.

According to the data of Russian Petroleum, Russia’s total oil exports to the East increased by 24.1% to 59.2 million tons in 2018, of which oil exports to China accounted for more than 84%.

Leontiev said that Russia and China jointly develop oil and gas resources in the Arctic continental shelf and the Far East and jointly develop ships suitable for the Arctic waterway, which is expected to create a new growth point for energy cooperation between the two sides. Russia-China energy cooperation can further cover the whole industry chain, including oil and gas exploitation and sales, localization of machinery and equipment production, development of systematic solutions, digitalization of energy and financing project management, etc.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of February 27, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2420 yuan/ton, and the market trend of domestic methanol market was strong.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market performance is still acceptable, the overall upward trend. At present, the inland market has stable shipments. Under the influence of such factors as the approaching spring inspection, olefin extraction and environmental protection maintenance in Shanxi, the overall storage pressure is relatively small, and the upward trend continues. In the port area, although futures rose sharply in the day, due to the impact of inventory pressure, spot performance was weaker than that in the mainland, slightly upward. The short-term mainland market is supported by favorable factors or continues to be strong, while the port areas need to focus on futures trends. Domestic methanol freight rates continued to decline, ranging from 10-20 yuan/ton. The freight rates of Inner Mongolia North Line to North Shandong refer to 290-360 yuan/ton, South Line to North Shandong refer to 290-320 yuan/ton, Shanxi part to North Shandong 130-190 yuan/ton, Guanzhong to North Shandong refer to 140-190 yuan/ton and South Shandong 140-180 yuan/ton. Xinjiang refers to 750-780 yuan/ton from North Shandong and Shenhua from Inner Mongolia refers to 350 yuan/ton from North Shandong.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: Linyi formaldehyde enterprises have resumed production, boosted by the recent rise in raw material methanol market, formaldehyde cost support is good, Shandong formaldehyde market is rising. Linyi part around 1200 yuan / ton, Zibo and its surrounding around 1200 – 1250 yuan / ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market is stable and soft. Southern Shandong and Henan enterprises have high shipping intentions, so the real single is soft. Saleable volume of Northern Enterprises is still tight, so the offer is firm. At present, the supply side of enterprises is still unbalanced. Downstream purchasing intention is more cautious, the latter market mentality is not clear. Dimethyl ether: Downstream centralized delisting digestion inventory, the seller’s sales pressure increased sharply, local price downward wider aggravated downstream bullish state, the domestic dimethyl ether Market is expected to decline in the short term or again under pressure.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: On the positive side, Northwest Guiding Price: Shaanxi-Mongolia Methanol has slightly increased this week, the current North-South Guiding Price is set at 2000 yuan/ton, which is 50 yuan/ton higher than last week; Domestic installations: Mainland based on spring inspection and other factors, and under the influence of environmental protection policies, maintenance enterprises have increased, local supply or contraction in the later period; Olefins: olefins procurement, pre-sale are good, expenditure. Methanol price of propylene raw material. On the negative side, inventory: high stocks in port areas are difficult to digest in the short term, and the stock pressure is high; crude oil: crude oil falls, which leads to the low opening of domestic chemical products; freight: recently, local freight of methanol has fallen significantly, which makes the cost of arrival of goods in consumer areas slightly loosened. Methanol analysts at business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will rise slightly.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of February 18, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2280 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market was narrowly higher.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Last week, the domestic methanol market showed different performances. Although the inventory of the mainland factories increased, the overall pre-sale volume was better. Last week, it maintained a good state of suspension. It is expected that this week’s new price will be adjusted to varying degrees. However, we need to pay attention to the upstream transmission of freight changes. We also need to hear about the test run of Hengli methanol plant near the weekend and pay attention to the impact on the mainland market. On the port side, stocks increased and futures fell sharply in the second half of last week, which suppressed spot declines. To a certain extent, the base spread strengthened. However, the good news of Sino-US trade talks or good support for futures and stock markets emerged over the weekend, and attention was paid to macroeconomic transmission of fundamentals.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: At present, some formaldehyde factories in Linyi have returned to the market, but the raw material methanol is weak, so formaldehyde in Shandong is mainly wait-and-see finishing, and the market atmosphere is still light. Zibo and its surrounding prices are around 1150-1200 yuan/ton; Linyi is around 1080-1100 yuan/ton, focusing on the plant dynamics of manufacturers in the region. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market is rising steadily. Henan enterprises are oversold and can be sold in a tight situation, so the offer continues to rise and individual enterprises close. Eastern China market followed the upward trend. Export offer prices rose to varying degrees, and intra-venue traders were active. The inventory of enterprises in North China is not high, and there is an intention to push up. Downstream, large downstream is relatively stable, and the recovery of small and medium downstream needs time. Dimethyl ether: End-users concentrate on delisting and digesting inventory, the domestic dimethyl ether market continues to rise momentum is obviously insufficient, the overall trend tends to be rational; in the short term, the seller’s inventory and sales pressure increase slowly, and the overall trend of the domestic dimethyl ether market will weaken in the near future.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives: On the positive side, downstream: after the festival, the downstream part of the downstream gradually recovered, and the demand for partial replenishment gradually increased; domestic installations: near March and April, the “spring inspection” of domestic methanol production installations will be launched one after another to support the supply side, such as Rongxin and Jiutai; foreign installations: recently, the parking/follow-up repair of some International installations is relatively concentrated, and the subsequent local supply side stock shrinkage is expected. 。 On the negative side, demand: in the first week after the Spring Festival, the traditional downstream recovery is slow, and transportation capacity has not been fully restored yet, substantial volume is limited; inventory: affected by the Spring Festival holidays, port inventory continues to grow, some methanol enterprises in the Mainland have high inventories, and some Iranian shipments still have arrival plans, need to pay attention to inventory changes; negative side: Southwest gas recovery ahead of schedule, affecting Southwest and Southwest China Peripheral market. Methanol analysts at business associations expect the domestic methanol market to continue to rise in the short term.