The dilemma between rise and fall for MDI Market (7.1-7.5)

Price Trend

Domestic aggregated MDI market is in a dilemma. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregated MDI was 1230 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, and 1240 yuan/ton at the weekend. The market price of aggregated MDI rose by 0.81% in a week, which was 33.57% lower than that of the same period last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: This week aggregate MDI market prices fluctuate slightly, the overall temperature is not hot, there is no market value. This week’s supply side: Cosco announced that this week’s guidance price of 12,500 yuan/ton was stable compared with last week, and there was not much supply; Huntsman and Wanhua markets were informed of a 3% discount supply, and the supply was tightened; East Cao Ruian market was informed that the guidance price was not clear, spot was scarce; import spot supply was scarce recently. The overall supply side of the market is tightening. This week’s demand side: the downstream early inventory is sufficient, this week’s inquiry is not good, mainly small trading orders. In addition, recent environmental inspections have begun, which lasted from the end of June to the end of August. Strict inspection of foaming agents will correspondingly inhibit the market demand of rigid foams in northern China. Other industries are in the off-season of demand, and the actual market demand has not been boosted. Traders this week: market quotations are mostly stable, low-price shipments are not willing, but sells mainly.

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On the market side, as of Friday (7.15), the aggregated MDI market in North China remained stable. Although the overall supply side of the supplier is tightened and the shipment pressure of the holder is not high, the market demand has been weak to follow up. In addition, the environmental protection inspection has restrained the hard bubble demand market in the north, and the market negotiation price has been slightly loosened. East China aggregates weak shocks in the MDI market. The downstream demand follow-up is weak, the main shipment is accompanied by the holder, the inquiries are scarce, and the confidence of the operators in the future market is insufficient. Consolidation of MDI market segments in South China. The market as a whole is still dominated by weaknesses, with the shipment of goods accompanied by the holder as the main factor, and the negotiation of actual orders as the main factor, with just a small order required.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This week, the price of pure benzene has been rising rapidly. Data released earlier this month showed that in June, China imported only 20,000 tons of pure benzene from Korea, while in the first five months of 2019, the average monthly export volume from Korea to China was more than 150,000. Pure benzene from Korea generally accounts for more than half of China’s total imports. The main reason for the substantial reduction of Korean supply is that Chinese downstream factories concentrate on refusing orders from June to July in consideration of import costs. In addition, there is a supply gap of pure benzene in the United States, resulting in a huge price gap between the United States and South Korea, and a large number of Korean goods are diverted to the United States for arbitrage, resulting in a sharp drop in pure benzene exported to China. Aniline: Within a week, the aniline market rose steadily from north to south. In the North China market, the average tender price of Jinling pure benzene has increased by nearly 245 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the wide range of cost has increased, resulting in profit loss of aniline. However, downstream demand drags down the market obviously. North China’s enterprises are generally shipped, and their inventory remains high. North China market is weak, stable shipment to inventory within a week. In the East China market, the price of aniline in North China rose narrowly because of the strong support of cost and the low pressure of shipment from the East China entrepreneurs.

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3. Future Market Forecast

Business community view: supplier manufacturers to force control goods, so that the end of the tour is not to force, buy goods sentiment is not good, traders follow the market, low price talks. Business Association aggregate MDI analysts predict that short-term domestic aggregate MDI market price range vulnerable shocks, small fluctuations.

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