1、 Price trend

According to the data of toluene news agency, the bulk price fluctuated slightly this week. On March 28, the price of toluene was 5487.5 yuan / ton; on this Sunday (April 4), the price was 5461 yuan / ton, down 26.5 yuan / ton or 0.98% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, Sinopec’s Toluene price adjustment range is – 200 / + 100 (yuan / ton). East China port inventory fell. At present, the downstream demand is stable, and the trend of toluene is obviously affected by the crude oil on the cost side. Recently, the crude oil has fluctuated greatly, and toluene lacks clear upward momentum. In terms of external market, as of April 1, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $678 / T, down US $2 / T or 0.29% from March 26. The price of imported toluene in East China was US $703 / T, down US $7 / T or 0.99% on March 26.

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + decided to gradually increase crude oil production from May, and Saudi Arabia will gradually reduce the number of additional voluntary production cuts. On March 26, Brent fell $1.61 per barrel, or 2.52%; WTI rose $0.52 per barrel, or 0.85%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week, with domestic goods at 16750 yuan / ton, down 2.9% from last week and up 68.62% from the same period last year. The domestic market is deadlocked, the trading atmosphere is light, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm is not high, the terminal’s overall willingness to receive goods is weak, the demand is insufficient, and just needs to purchase.

In terms of PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week fell compared with last week, at 6400 yuan / ton, down 4.48% compared with last week, up 36.17% compared with the beginning of the year, and up 48.84% year on year. The production capacity of domestic p-xylene plants is mainly concentrated in East China. Sinopec and private enterprises have started their plants normally, with an on-site operation rate of more than 90%. The on-site supply is normal, and the goods are in good condition. As of April 1, closing prices in Asia were 784-786 USD / T FOB Korea and 802-804 USD / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

At present, the price of toluene mainly fluctuates with the trend of crude oil, focusing on the latest progress of European epidemic and vaccination, the impact of US dollar exchange rate and US debt on the price of crude oil. Pay attention to the impact of the spring maintenance of toluene plant, toluene arrival and downstream demand change on toluene price.