From the trend chart, we can see that the domestic direct price still rises slightly, most of the rare earth products have stable price trend, neodymium and terbium prices gradually fall, dysprosium system prices “a unique show”. As of April 7, the price of dysprosium oxide was 3.09 million yuan / ton; dysprosium iron alloy price was 3.05 million yuan / ton; dysprosium metal price was 3.95 million yuan / ton; domestic TB system price fell slightly; on the 7th day, the price of domestic terbium oxide was 9.55 million yuan / T, and the price of terbium metal was 12.25 million yuan / ton.

The main reason for the price rising in the domestic heavy rare earth market is the sharp contradiction between supply and demand.

Supply: Myanmar is not optimistic, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated, and Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the import source has decreased greatly, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the over heavy rare earth market is sharp, which leads to the price of heavy rare earth continuously rising. In addition, the production of heavy rare earth in China is normal, and the large gap in the demand for heavy rare earth in China is powerless. The domestic rare earth storage plan is a great benefit to support the price of heavy rare earth in China. In february2021, the State Council’s opinions on supporting the revitalization and development of the old revolutionary areas in the new era put forward to promote the construction of “China’s rare earth Valley” and study the policies of the collection and storage of heavy rare earth and tungsten resources in China, The annual production of heavy rare earth in the plan of storage is relatively large, which is expected to have a great impact on the supply and demand and price of medium heavy rare earth.

Demand: downstream demand is still large, and permanent magnet demand remains high in the near future. New energy vehicles have been on fire from 2020 to 2021. According to the insiders on the site, the rare earth gap may continue for the whole year 2021. The main rare earth materials of high performance NdFeB are light rare earth, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide. They are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy saving, frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional automobiles and other fields. According to statistics, new energy vehicles continue to refresh the record of single month sales. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, 11 key enterprises completed 1.267 million vehicles in the first and middle of March, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year. Among them, the production of passenger vehicles has completed 1.013 million, an increase of 1.3 times over the same period of the same period; the production of commercial vehicles has completed 254000, which has doubled year-on-year. Downstream demand rose, and it is said that the demand gap has been increasing. Due to the weak market procurement of terbium, the market price of terbium system has declined slightly.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price index of domestic rare earth market has slightly fallen. According to the index of rare earth plate of business agency, the rare earth index on April 6 was 566, down 1 point from yesterday, down 43.40% from the highest point 1000 in the cycle (2011-12-06), up 108.86% from the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to December 1, 2011 to present).

The domestic rare earth index began to fall slightly in April, but the decline was not large, and the market price of domestic light rare earth has declined slightly in recent years. With the increase of domestic new energy vehicle sales, wind power, electronic products and other terminal industries have developed rapidly. With the slowing of the epidemic situation, the downstream manufacturers’ capacity utilization rate continues, demand for purchasing is the main, the demand for Nd-Fe-B is still high, the high prosperity of new energy vehicles and consumer electronics industry also contributes to the rise of rare earth prices. The data show that the demand for high-performance Nd-Fe-B in the world is mainly concentrated in the automotive field (traditional vehicles are close to 40%, and the proportion of new energy vehicles is over 12%), and the rest of them are in the range of 8% to 10% in other areas, such as wind power, consumer electronics, frequency conversion air conditioning and energy saving appliances. Downstream demand remained high, but the early stage manufacturers were positive in stock preparation and increased inventory in the site, which led to the negative downstream procurement and low market price of light rare earth.

The total control indexes of the first batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation increased significantly in 2021, which is related to the strong downstream demand. The Ministry of natural resources issued the total control index of rare earth mining in 2021, and the total control index of the first batch of rare earth ores (REO, the same below) in 2021 was 84000 tons, among which the index of ion type (mainly medium heavy rare earth) rare earth ore was 11490 tons, and the rock and mineral resources were mainly composed of the rare earth minerals The index of type (light) rare earth ore is 72510 tons. The first batch of tungsten concentrate (tungsten trioxyte content 65%, the same below) has a total control index of 63000 tons, including 46890 tons of main production index and 16110 tons of comprehensive utilization index. In 2021, the total amount of rare earth and tungsten mines will be controlled continuously. The national policy is favorable and the market price of rare earth will continue to rise.

With the continuous release of new energy vehicles, wind power and frequency conversion air conditioning downstream of rare earth, the demand is expected to increase further. The global supply gap of rare earth is expected to continue to expand, the domestic demand for rare earth remains high, and the domestic supply of rare earth is normal. However, the market transaction is not good in the near future and the purchase is not positive. Chenling, an analyst at business society, expects the price of rare earth market to be light and thin in the short term in the later period The price of soil market will be slightly lower, and dysprosium market price will maintain a high level.