1、 Price data

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, domestic refiners’ petroleum coke showed an overall upward trend in September. At the beginning of the month, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1260 yuan / ton, and on September 29, the average price of petroleum coke was 1357.75 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 7.76% and a year-on-year increase of 12.53%. On September 28, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 105.60, flat with yesterday, down 32.13% from 155.59 (2018-01-25), and 57.87% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

At present, the market of petroleum coke is greatly affected by the coming of the double festival, and the price rises and falls. In terms of low sulfur coke, due to the limited resources of low sulfur coke and better downstream demand, the price of low sulfur coke is still good. In terms of medium and high sulfur coke, the downward risk is relatively large, because the trend of electrolytic aluminum is obvious. At the beginning of September, the price rose for a time. The reason is that the atmosphere of family building in the local refining petroleum coke market is more active, and the price has been rising all the way. The main reason is the shortage of petroleum coke resources. The recent rise of petroleum coke is good, the market trading atmosphere is better, and the current inventory remains low. Low sulfur coke resources are scarce, the price is stable and upward, medium and high sulfur coke resources are relatively limited, and the market price is rising. Some refineries have reduced production, aluminum enterprises have considerable profits, supporting the price rise of medium and high sulfur coke.

Upstream: this week’s EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory continued to decline, which was good for the international crude oil price; however, negative news such as OPEC’s international discount sales of crude oil, the lowering of crude oil price expectations by institutions such as Barclays, the resumption of production of Libya’s crude oil and the aggravation of the epidemic situation in Europe continue to stimulate the international crude oil market. ETI crude oil prices fell 2.59% this week, while Brent crude oil prices fell 2.29%.

Downstream: the general trend of glass spot market in mid and early September is general, the delivery speed of production enterprises has little change, the market transaction is stable, and the market sentiment is slightly loose. Generally speaking, in the process of traditional consumption peak season, the demand of terminal market presents rigid characteristics. At present, domestic real estate construction decoration orders are mainly increased, while export orders are limited. The acceptance of glass spot price by downstream real estate enterprises has increased by a certain extent compared with last month. At the same time, traders’ social inventory has also been reduced to a certain extent recently, and the purchase of original glass pieces has returned to the normal level and speed. In recent years, due to the rising price of petroleum coke, the profit margin of downstream carbon has shrunk, or it mainly purchases petroleum coke on demand. The price of petroleum coke rose. In the aspect of carbon in the middle and late September, the recent price drop in raw material market is good for carbon formation, but the downstream electrolytic aluminum continues to decline, which is a blow to the mentality of the industry. It is expected that the short-term carbon price will be under pressure. After a long period of rising prices, downstream enterprises used low-cost raw materials in the early stage, and the enterprises fell into losses, and the prices were mainly stable during the double festival.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, there are three kinds of commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list of commodity prices in the 38th week of 2020 (9.21-9.25), with coke (2.83%), liquefied natural gas (1.68%) and steam coal (0.67%). There were 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with MTBE (- 4.43%), asphalt (- 2.82%) and Brent crude oil (- 2.79%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 1.13%.

Business agency petroleum coke analysts believe: the current decline in the price of petroleum coke, the price of weak operation. Domestic carbon market trading is stable, the overall change is not big, the demand side is also relatively stable. Before the festival, manufacturers are more stable in shipping, mainly controlling inventory. It is expected that the current trend of Petroleum Coke will continue before the festival, depending on the downstream market demand.